By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The Masters is in the books, Hideki Matsuyama becomes the first Japanese man to claim a major title, and the PGA Tour now travels to Hilton Head, SC to tee it up for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. If you recall, the RBC Heritage was played back in mid-June last year as the second tournament following the three-month shutdown. The field for that week was elite, close to a major caliber field. Typically, the field for the RBC Heritage is fairly mediocre with just a few bigger names sprinkled in. While it isn’t at the level we saw last season, this will be a fairly strong field once again this go-'round. In total, 28 of the top 50, and 47 of the top 100, ranked golfers in the world will be on site. There are 137 golfers listed in the field this week and we’ll see the normal cut rule come back into play -- the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. I love this tournament as it takes place just down the road from me and was the first PGA event I ever attended personally. Harbour Town GL is a beautiful course that often provides plenty of entertainment.

The Course Preview ⛳

Harbour Town GL is a classic Pete Dye designed Par 71 which extends right about 7,100 yards. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined and the Bermuda greens are some of the smallest on the PGA Tour. There are a total of 54 bunkers and 17 water hazards scattered throughout the course. Since it was played about two months later than usual last year in the midst of the Carolina summer heat, the grounds crew watered the greens daily. This led to more drivers being used, which isn’t how Harbour Town is typically conquered. Now that it’s being played in its usual time of year, I believe we’ll see things play out in a much more traditional fashion.

Most golfers will likely keep the big stick in the bag for the majority of holes, as hitting these fairways is crucial. The average drive here tends to be about 275 yards, which is well below PGA Tour average. Pete Dye courses are intentionally designed to challenge sightlines off of the tee and forces golfers to find the right landing zones so they can better frame their approach shots when targeting these incredibly small greens. The difficulty in which this course plays is heavily influenced by the weather. Since Harbour Town GL is right by the ocean, the wind tends to play a major factor and has caused this course to rank as either a moderately easy course over the years or as one of the most challenging. Last year, with the ultra talented field and softer conditions, we saw the cut line reach to 4-under and the eventual champion (Webb Simpson) ended his final round at 22-under par. However, in the four years prior while being played at its usual time of the year, the cut line for the RBC Heritage didn’t drop below even par and the winning score landed between 9-and-13-under. Even with the more talented-than-usual field, I believe we’ll see scores revert to about what they traditionally have been in the past, especially with some potentially tricky weather conditions on the horizon.

Predicted Cut: -1

Winning Score: -14

Weather ⛅

Temps in the 50s/60s most of the week with a good bit of cloud coverage.

Thursday: Sustained winds will be about 10 mph the entire day with 15-25 mph gusts. Slightly less gusty early in the AM. Could see some light rain in the PM.

Friday: AM wave could see the worst of the winds as they’ll be 10-15 mph sustained with gusts close to 20 mph. Very manageable <10 mph winds closer towards the afternoon.

Weekend: Wind conditions shouldn’t be a problem on the weekend but Saturday does bring a fairly significant threat of rain. If it’s not a downpour and there is no lightning in the area, they’ll play through. Otherwise, can’t rule out a suspension in play.

Verdict: We could reasonably be looking at a slight weather advantage for the AM/PM wave, but if rain moves in later on Thursday, it could soften up the course for the Friday AM wave which could counteract the slightly windier conditions. So, ultimately, I wouldn’t let weather or tee times affect my decision making. As always, try to run a final check on the forecast later on Wednesday to see if anything changes.

RBC Heritage Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

3. Par 4 Scoring Average | 20%

4. Driving Accuracy | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.4k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #3 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 7th SG: App | 9th SG: ATG | 17th P4 Avg. | 74th Driv. Acc. | 58th Bog. Avd.

DJ’s last three results: Missed cut at The Masters, T48 at The Players, and T54 at the WGC-Workday Championship. DJ is not in ‘DJ-type form’ but that means his GPP ownership could be as low as 10%, which is pretty crazy for the odds on favorite. His MC last week was largely due to the putter (lost -3.05 strokes) which can be corrected at any time. As long as you’re playing more than a handful of lineups, I think it’d be wise to get some exposure to DJ. Easy leverage spot for the (still) No. 1 ranked player in the world.

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 43rd SG: App | 7th SG: ATG | 2nd P4 Avg. | 6th Driv. Acc. | 2nd Bog. Avd.

Pete Dye designed courses and Webb Simpson’s playstyle is pretty much a match made in golf heaven. Simpson finally notched a win here in 2020 and has made the cut at Harbour Town every time in his last ten attempts. The approach game hasn’t been as strong out of him across the season as a whole, but he did rank 13th in SG: App at The Masters last week, so the irons are not completely failing him or anything. He could end up being one of the highest owned players on the board, which doesn’t matter much for cash games. But figure out what kind of stand ya want to make on him in GPPs.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: App | 42nd SG: ATG | 12th P4 Avg. | 7th Driv. Acc. | 42nd Bog. Avd.

Morikawa didn’t have much success when he played here in June last year, but now that the RBC Heritage is set to play more traditionally, Morikawa’s game sets up very nicely. Anywhere that requires accuracy off of the tee and extremely sharp irons fit the bill for Morikawa’s MO. If he can find some consistency with his short game, I could envision him on the podium come Sunday.

Corey Conners | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 30/1 | CMR: #11 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 9th SG: App | 90th SG: ATG | 12th P4 Avg. | 9th Driv. Acc. | 26th Bog. Avd.

Man, if Conners had just a decent/above average short game, he’d be taking down tournaments left and right. Led the field in SG: App at The Masters (+9.02) but lost a combined -3.43 strokes around and on the greens. He’s still grinding out great finishes nearly every week and ranks 1st in the field in average finish over his last ten starts. Conners is unquestionably playing the best, most consistent golf of his career right now.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 31st SG: App | 76th SG: ATG | 9th P4 Avg. | 3rd Driv. Acc. | 10th Bog. Avd.

Ancer returns to Harbour Town where he came just short of taking this tournament down back in June, finishing one stroke behind Webb Simpson. Ancer is another golfer who profiles as an excellent fit for Pete Dye courses and is just playing solid golf, in general, entering the week. He has carded a finish of T26 or better in nine of his last 12 starts.

Mid-Priced Targets

Brian Harman | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 57th SG: App | 43rd SG: ATG | 29th P4 Avg. | 31st Driv. Acc. | 19th Bog. Avd.

Harman has been more of a grinder (made 19 of last 20 cuts), but following a T3 at The Players and T12 at The Masters, he’s pushing much closer to “contender” status. He also added in a T5 finish in the match play event between those two aforementioned tournaments. His course history here isn’t spotless, but he has played in plenty of competitive rounds at Harbour Town, making 7/10 cuts with a couple of top 10s. I like his chances at another top 10 this week.

Shane Lowry | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #38 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 47th SG: App | 17th SG: ATG | 92nd P4 Avg. | 65th Driv. Acc. | 86th Bog. Avd.

Lowry isn’t someone who pops on the long term stat sheet but I believe he is close to putting it all together following a solo 8th place finish at The Players and a respectable T21 at The Masters, where he ranked 6th in the field in SG: App. Lowry came through with a T3 result at the RBC Heritage in 2019, which was the last time it was played under its normal circumstances. I wouldn’t go here in cash, but Lowry should be relatively lower owned out of this price range so I’d target him in large field GPPs.

Charley Hoffman | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 11th SG: App | 85th SG: ATG | 25th P4 Avg. | 107th Driv. Acc. | 13th Bog. Avd.

Here’s to hoping Hoffman stays hot, eh? He didn’t qualify for The Masters, but he notched a runner-up finish two weeks back at The Valero Texas Open -- his third top 10 in his last six starts… also landed a strong T17 at The Players. Made 8/11 cuts at Harbour Town with a couple of top 10s. In the back of my mind, I know the wheels are gonna fall off the Hoffman Hype Train sooner or later, but I’ll stick with him until we get to that point.

Ian Poulter | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #57 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 121st SG: App | 35th SG: ATG | 76th P4 Avg. | 21st Driv. Acc. | 45th Bog. Avd.

Can’t be too disappointed about his T26 last week but, before The Masters, Poulter’s form had been quite sporadic. Mainly highlighting him as a GPP play due to his appealing course history. He has made 9/9 cuts at Harbour Town, including top 20 finishes in five of the last six years.

Chris Kirk | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 27th SG: App | 11th SG: ATG | 6th P4 Avg. | 42nd Driv. Acc. | 3rd Bog. Avd.

Kirk continues to be underpriced and undervalued. He has landed inside the top 25 in seven of his last ten starts, including thrice in the top 10. He ranges from solid to elite in every key metric. Kirk just doesn’t have a very appealing course history… it’s mediocre at best -- 5/9 made cuts, best finish T23 (2016). However, the most important thing in golf is form, and Kirk’s has been great so let’s keep rolling with him.

Low-Priced Targets

Kevin Streelman | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 36th SG: App | 73rd SG: ATG | 24th P4 Avg. | 32nd Driv. Acc. | 43rd Bog. Avd.

Streelman missed the weekend here back in June, but under more typical conditions, he notched back-to-back top 10 finishes here in 2018 & 2019. He’s a straight hitter with solid irons who can hit some nice birdie stretches when he’s in a groove.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #30 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 106th SG: App | 4th SG: ATG | 74th P4 Avg. | 49th Driv. Acc. | 73rd Bog. Avd.

Hadwin has found plenty of success on Pete Dye courses and he goes into Hilton Head, SC having made seven of his last eight cuts, including five top 30s. His irons haven’t been the best this season, but his game shines on and around the greens. We should expect a solid week of golf out of him this week and he’s an affordable player you can throw into more top-heavy lineups.

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #24 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 6th SG: App | 82nd SG: ATG | 43rd P4 Avg. | 30th Driv. Acc. | 49th Bog. Avd.

Gotta be a tad careful with NeSmith, because he doesn’t have a ton of PGA Tour experience and is no stranger to having ‘blowup rounds’. But, on paper, he makes quite a bit of sense at these salaries and in his Harbour Town debut last year he landed an admirable T33 finish. You’re almost always going to see quality tee to green play out of him… it’s just all about that short game and whether or not he can keep pace or jump ahead of the field in SG: ATG & SG: Putting.

Patton Kizzire | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #25 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 51st SG: App | 61st SG: ATG | 18th P4 Avg. | 87th Driv. Acc. | 30th Bog. Avd.

I mean, I’m far from the biggest fan of Patton Kizzire when it comes to DFS but he deserves a bit more respect than these salaries are giving him. He’s made 13/15 cuts on the season with three top 10s -- one of those coming from his last start at The Valero Texas Open (T9). He also has some course history here with 3/5 made cuts with his best finish coming by way of T14 back in 2016. Ranks 16th in the field in average fantasy points over his last ten starts. Decent piece to a stars & scrubs GPP build.

Luke Donald | DK: $6k, FD: $7k

Odds: 500/1 | CMR: #117 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 85th SG: App | 106th SG: ATG | 122nd P4 Avg. | 98th Driv. Acc. | 90th Bog. Avd.

Okay, so definitely don’t put a lot of faith in a guy who has only made 2/13 cuts this season. But if there is anyone in the field who would be easy to root for this week, it’s Luke Donald. He has finished runner-up at this tournament FIVE TIMES and had a couple of third place finishes as well, but has never won. If you’re making 20 lineups, throw the min. priced guy in one of ‘em and see how it goes, why don’t ya? Your 5% exposure would likely be about 3x above the field.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Abraham Ancer

Got some nice results out of Spieth and Hoffman the last couple of weeks, so hopefully, Ancer can keep it rolling. He looked incredible here back in June so hopefully, he can bring the same game to the table now that this tournament is back on schedule in April.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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