Written by Ryan Humphries

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Tournament & Field 🏆

What a wild finish to the PGA’s return to action last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge! With yet another incredibly strong field on tap for this week, expect plenty of drama to be had once again. The PGA Tour travels from Texas on out to the East Coast to tee it up for the RBC Heritage held at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island, SC. Normally the RBC Heritage lands just after The Masters on the standard PGA schedule, so the level of competition is often mediocre at best. However, as will be the norm for most remaining weeks on the 2019-20 schedule, this field is absolutely loaded. This event will feature eight of the world’s top 10 ranked golfers, and 47 of the top 60. Adam Scott and Patrick Cantlay account for the only top 10 ranked players foregoing this event and golf fans continue to wait on Tiger Woods (OWGR #13) to make his debut after the three month PGA Tour shutdown. This is a full field event with 154 players on site and the typical 36-hole cut rule will apply once again -- the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Harbour Town Golf Links

Par 71 - 7,099 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Difficulty Last Five Years: 10th, 19th, 29th, 8th, 26th

Cut Line Last Five Years

2019: +1

2018: +1

2017: Even

2016: +3

2015: +1

Last Five Winners

2019: CT Pan -12

2018: Satoshi Kodaira -12

2017: Wesley Bryan -13

2016: Branden Grace -9

2015: Jim Furyk -18

Harbour Town GL is a classic Pete Dye designed Par 71. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined and the Bermuda greens are some of the smallest on the PGA Tour. There are a total of 54 bunkers and 17 water hazards scattered throughout the course. This is a week where a lot of golfers will keep the big stick in the bag for most holes, as hitting these fairways is absolutely crucial. The average drive here tends to be about 275 yards, which is well below PGA Tour average. Pete Dye courses are intentionally designed to challenge sight lines off of the tee and force golfers to find the right landing zones so they can better frame their approach shots when targeting these incredibly small greens. The difficulty in which this course plays is heavily influenced by the weather. Since Harbour Town GL is right by the ocean, wind tends to play a major factor and has caused this course to rank as either a moderately easy course over the years or as one of the most challenging. You can also see above that the cut line hasn’t been below par in the last five years. However, the RBC Heritage typically doesn’t host this level of immense talent most years so, as we saw last week, we can expect the cut line to be about two or three shots lower than usual though I’d still expect a winning score to be in that 12-to-15 under sort of range.

Weather ⛅

As mentioned above, weather can often have a major impact on this course since it plays right along side the Atlantic Ocean. At first look, it seems that conditions should be pretty favorable for essentially the entire week. Sustained winds should max out at about 10-15 mph, rain isn’t a major threat to cause any lengthy delays, and temperatures will hover in the 70s and 80s all week. There could be potential for a slight wave advantage to develop, but as of now it looks like Thursday and Friday will have pretty identical conditions. As always, run a final weather check on Wednesday night. You can click the image below to view the most up-to-date forecast.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

3. Driving Accuracy | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Jon Rahm | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 18/1 | Custom Model Rank: #16

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

There are some guys at the top of the pricing hierarchy who stand out as highly intriguing contrarian GPP options -- Rahm is one of them. Rahm had a lot of backers last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge and was about the 5th highest owned golfer in GPPs. Anyone who played him is well aware of the fact that he was unable pay off his hefty price tag because he didn’t even make the cut. But we can honestly just chalk that performance up to a very poor putting performance -- one of the worst two rounds in his career, in fact. At Colonial CC, Rahm gained strokes in every category tee to green (off the tee, approach, and around the green) however across his two rounds he lost over four strokes putting. Ultimately he went on to miss the cut by two strokes. This may be Rahm’s debut at Harbour Town GL but he has shown in the past that he can excel at shorter courses, so I really like him as a tournament option this week, as the general public is going to put a ton of weight on last week’s performances. Per the key stats, in this field Rahm ranks 40th in SG: App, 16th in P4 AVG, 42nd in Driving Accuracy, 51st in SG: ATG, and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. For how long he is off the tee (13th in Driving Distance, 307.4 yds/drive) he is really accurate in hitting fairways. I’m guessing many people will be chasing Bryson DeChambeau after he wowed everyone with his monstrous drives last week and nearly played himself into a win. But DeChambeau won’t be able to launch drives over trees at Harbour Town like he did at Colonial. While I do love DeChambeau moving forward, I’m not 100% confident in him this week, so that makes Rahm my go-to GPP pivot, as he’s priced just below Bryson on both sites.

Webb Simpson | DK: $9k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Continuing the trend of “players who burnt everyone last week,” we have Webb Simpson. On both sites, Simpson was about 60% owned in cash and 25-30% owned in GPPs, so odds are anyone reading this who played PGA DFS last week felt this chalk bomb at Colonial CC. But I think we just have to take the newly discounted Webb Simpson and trust his long term form here and be willing to go back to the well on a course that he typically crushes. Simpson has made 9/10 cuts at Harbour Town GL with a couple of top 5s and most recently he notched a solid T16 result here in 2019. It’s tough not to like him on paper as well. He ranks 8th in SG: App, 1st in P4 AVG, 18th in Driving Accuracy, 27th in SG: ATG, and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. Simpson was another guy who struggled on the greens last week, losing just under three strokes putting against the field across his two rounds of golf. While putting is the most volatile aspect of golf statistics, Webb is typically one of the most reliable putters on the PGA Tour, so that further backs my belief that we’ll see a strong bounce back performance from him this go ‘round.

Mid-Priced Targets

Gary Woodland | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #9

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I love the potential value on Woodland here as he checks in as the 16th most expensive golfer on both sites but carries the 12th best odds to win and ranks 9th in my player model. Woodland couldn’t quite make that fourth round push to contend for a victory last week but he turned in a very respectable solo 9th place finish, marking his sixth top 10 result in ten events this season. Woodland has the 7th longest average drive in this field and often gets thought of as a guy who can only contend on tracks where bombers excel, but that is simply not the case. For as long as he is off the tee, Woodland ranks as one of the more accurate players on Tour. And thanks to his elite iron play, he hits a ton of greens in regulation. On approach shots last week, he led the field by gaining +8.79 strokes -- nearly two more than the next guy down (Justin Thomas, +7.00 SG: App). Across the board, Woodland ranks 5th in SG: App, 17th in P4 AVG, 37th in Driving Accuracy, 118th in SG: ATG, and 4th in Bogey Avoidance. The around the green play is obviously the primary concern, since no matter how accurate a golfers irons are, inevitably they are going to miss hitting some of the extremely small greens that Harbour Town features. It is worth noting that Woodland did only lose 0.44 strokes around the greens last week, so if he can simply stay about on par with the field in that category, the rest of his game should boost him to another strong finish.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I was hoping Hatton would fly a bit under the radar heading into the RBC Heritage since he didn’t compete last week but I’m already seeing plenty of buzz on him across the industry. Regardless, I wanted to highlight him here in case this happens to be the only PGA DFS article someone reads in any given week. Prior to the season suspension, Hatton had finishes of 1st, 6th, 14th, and 6th across his four 2019-20 PGA events. He also added another win at the Turkish Airlines Open over on the European Tour. Hatton has made eight straight cuts across the PGA and Euro Tours while finishing worse than T18 just once during that time. While Hatton is going to be a bit more of an unknown since we didn’t see him play at Colonial CC, I think he’s worth trusting in this spot despite limited course history. He absolutely shines across my key stats for this week, ranking 1st in SG: App, 3rd in P4 AVG, 31st in Driving Accuracy, 7th in SG: ATG, and 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. It is worth noting that Hatton’s stats may be a bit inflated since he has fewer registered PGA rounds than the majority of the field this season, but it’s what we have to work with and that is just simply one of the aspects that makes PGA DFS a riskier venture than usual right now. Personally, I’ll be willing to deploy him in all formats but I wouldn’t be shocked if he is one of those guys who burns us with a lackluster performance.

Low-Priced Targets

Joel Dahmen | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Dahmen is really a player who should have found his way into last week’s newsletter, as he went into the three month shutdown off of back-to-back 5th place finishes as well as a T14 prior to that. Despite the long layover and the highly talented field, Dahmen picked up right where he left off by posting a strong T19 finish at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. His DFS salaries essentially stayed the same on both sites (+$200 on FD) because no one simply bought into him and he was only about 5% owned. That will most definitely increase this week as people search for some value, especially when you account for Dahmen’s 16th place finish here at Harbour Town last year in his RBC Heritage debut. He also fits the criteria very well on paper, ranking 12th in SG: App, 15th in P4 AVG, 23rd in Driving Accuracy, 59th in SG: ATG, and 50th in Bogey Avoidance. Dahmen has posted four top 10s this season across 14 events while missing just two cuts. He should be worth a look in both cash and GPP lineup builds.

Talor Gooch | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #56

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Gooch seems to be one of the more under-priced golfers in any given week and this one is no different. Despite making 13 consecutive cuts this season with five top 25s and two top 10s, he is still priced as the 58th most expensive golfer on DraftKings and 69th (nice) on FanDuel. I will say that I don’t love him from a “course fit” perspective and this is the first time he’s ever played at Harbour Town. Also, on paper, his numbers are pretty lackluster. But it’s hard for a player of any caliber to make 13 straight cuts on the PGA Tour and he has shown he can post strong finishes as well, so he is absolutely worth consideration in GPPs. As far as the stats do go, he ranks 65th in SG: App, 49th in P4 AVG, 105th in Driving Accuracy, 55th in SG: ATG, and 52nd in Bogey Avoidance. The driving accuracy is the most obvious red flag here, as he’s hitting 56.9% of fairways this season (44.6% last week) and it isn’t like he’s an especially long hitter (~300 yds/drive) so that will definitely keep him away from cash consideration. But, once again, he’s for sure a worthy tournament option and he’ll probably only be about 5% owned.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Rory McIlroy | $11.3k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 11/1 | CMR: #12 | GPP Preferred

There’s nothing sneaky about suggesting the top ranked player in the world but plenty of people may look at his final round last week (74, +4 over par) and shy away. He almost has to win, or at least grab a top three finish, in order to pay off his salaries but he is a bit cheaper this week. Rory’s power doesn’t exactly provide an advantage at Harbour Town, so there are still a wide range of outcomes to be had from him.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #20 | Cash & GPP

Gut wrenching ending to his final round last week after a couple of missed putts from short range would have sealed the win, but on a course that demands solid accuracy and a strong iron game, you have to at least consider Morikawa despite the price hike. He’s 2nd in SG: App & 38th in Driving Accuracy while riding a PGA leading 22 event consecutive cut streak.

Justin Rose | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #118 | GPP Preferred

Disregard the rough CMR ranking here as Rose is very likely to continue trending back in the right direction. His club change from Honma to TaylorMade paid immediate dividends with a T3 result at the Charles Schwab Classic and he was one of the few players last week to gain strokes in every tee to green category as well as putting. While he may be back to his usual form, we do have to refrain from putting too much stock into one event because he was not very good for the majority of the season. That will make him more of a GPP option for me.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $8.6k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #126 | GPP Only

At this point, no one is really going to be interested in investing in Koepka, as he has posted just one top 20 finish this season in eight starts. And despite a ‘decent’ T32 last week, he still lost nearly five strokes to the field on approach, though he somehow managed to shoot under 70 in all four rounds. You still have to remember what this guy is capable of and he is still the No. 4 player in the world for a reason. An obvious GPP-only play, but if his irons ever suddenly snap back into form then he’ll have a great shot at being a DFS tournament winner.

Ian Poulter | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #29 | Cash & GPP

Poulter is the type of golfer who really fits the mold for Harbour Town GL. He has made all eight cuts here and over the last three years he has finished 10th, 7th, and 11th at the RBC Heritage. Poulter is consistently landing top 30 finishes this season but he is still searching for his first 2019-20 top 10 result, so he may be more of a cash play but could have a place in GPP lineups too.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #42 | Cash & GPP

For these prices, McNealy offers a ton of potential value. He missed the cut at the API by one stroke but aside from that tournament he has made the cut in his other previous 12 starts while finishing T37 or better in ten of those events. He’s priced as the 51st and 53rd most expensive golfer on DK and FD, respectively, so he sets up as a terrific points-per-dollar play.

Luke Donald | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #35 | GPP Only

Donald has finished as a runner-up here an insane five times and has come in third twice. An RBC Heritage article would not be complete without mentioning this guy, as this place clearly has an incredible correlation to Donald’s game but he just hasn’t been able to land that trophy. At this point in his career it would be a stretch to see him finishing among the top 5 once again, but when it comes to course horses he has easily had the most success at Harbour Town among all the competition this week.

Doc Redman | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k

Odds: 300/1 | CMR: #34 | GPP Preferred

If we’re really going punting, Redman is a guy who ranks the highest in my tournament model in this bottom-of-the-barrel salary range and I really don’t hate this play at all if you’re going for a stars and scrubs build. Redman has made 12/16 cuts on the season and hits quite well on a few key stats: 20th in SG: App, 14th in Driving Accuracy, & 37th in P4 AVG. The RBC Heritage was Redman’s second ever PGA event back in 2018 and he was able to claw his way to a made cut and T50 finish So it is nice to know that the 22-year-old has a bit of course knowledge and experience.

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That will do it for our RBC Heritage preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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