By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The Motor City plays host to the PGA Tour this week as the Rocket Mortgage Classic is set to tee off at Detroit Golf Club. 2019 marked the inaugural edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as well as the first time the PGA Tour played at Detroit GC, so we won’t have much course history to go off of this week. The overall strength of this full-sized 156-player field is below average but there are still plenty of recognizable names out there with 33 of the top 100 ranked golfers in attendance. We may have to dig a little deeper in order to find the more suitable value options among the lesser-known golfers but I, for one, welcome the challenge! The normal 36-hole cut rule is once again in play so the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend rounds. Here's to a ton of 6/6 lineups for the LineStar fam!

The Course Preview ⛳

Detroit Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,340 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix

2019 Cut Line: (-5)

2020 Cut Line: (-4)

2019 Winner: Nate Lashley (-25)

2020 Winner: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)

2019 Course Difficulty Rank: 42nd

2020 Course Difficulty Rank: 39th

Detroit GC was designed by Donald Ross in the early 1900s. Considering this will be just the third time it will be featured on the PGA Tour circuit, if you want to really get into some nitty-gritty research it may be worth looking at player history at some other Ross designed courses (East Lake, Plain View, Aronimink, Sedgefield). But as we saw the last couple of seasons, golfers didn’t have much trouble tackling this course and it turned into a complete birdie-fest both years. I’d expect things to play out in a very similar fashion this go ‘round. This is a shorter-than-average Par 72 set-up and, since it is a traditional Par 72, that means there are four Par 5 holes in play which will allow for a flock of birdies and plenty of potential eagle opportunities as well. Golfers were able to belt it down the fairway at Detroit GC in 2019 & 2020, as the average drive was over 300 yards and overall fairway accuracy was on the higher side at about 65%.

Detroit GC features a nice balanced blend of longer and shorter holes. The tree-lined fairways possess some noticeable ‘hilly’ undulation and are below average in width. There aren’t many doglegged holes so many of these fairways will be pretty much straight off the tee. There was a bit of an effort made to increase the course difficulty to provide PGA caliber players with a tougher challenge last season, as the rough measured 3.5” in 2019 but was listed at 4” in 2020, so tee shots that miss the fairway could provide slightly more troublesome up-and-down attempts -- but still very manageable conditions overall. There are 87 bunkers for golfers to navigate, many guarding the preferred landing zones, however, there is just one water hazard to contend with. The mixed Bentgrass/Poa greens represent the primary course defense here, as they are smaller-than-average (about 5,100 square feet on average) and play tougher than most greens on Tour. They’re also protected by plenty of bunkers and primarily slope back to front while running moderately fast at about 12-13 on the stimpmeter. Despite the lack of immense star power, this should be an entertaining event and 100% worth tuning into while we celebrate this July 4th weekend. Let’s get into it!

Weather ⛅

Winds will kick up at times throughout the first two rounds, particularly on Friday where some 20 mph gusts come into play. But, overall, both AM/PM and PM/AM waves should be equally affected. Rain could move through on Wednesday night and provide the Thursday AM golfers with the best opening round scoring conditions. I’d look at those golfers if you’re making first round leader bets or playing single round contests on Thursday, but for full four-round DFS contests, I wouldn’t worry much about a wave advantage at this time. Otherwise, golfers should see plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures all week. As always, run a final check on the weather Wednesday night just in case anything changes! The most up-to-date forecast can be found by clicking on the image below.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11.4k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 7/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #1

Love him or hate him, DeChambeau demands some consideration this week as the reigning RMC champ who will be returning to Detroit to defend his title. Vegas is giving Bryson essentially double the win equity (+700) than the next closest golfer (Patrick Reed, +1400). While bombers don’t necessarily have an advantage here, a shorter (and straight) Par 72 like Detroit GC should be ultra ‘gettable’ by DeChambeau, as he showed last season en route to a 23-under par winning score. He was racking up a top 10 after top 10 when he went into this event last year, which he isn’t exactly doing as of late. But despite the somewhat lackluster form for a guy who will cost you top dollar this week, he’ll be in play across the board.

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.6k, FD: 11.7k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #4

Like most people looking to play some PGA DFS this week, I’m not in love with the top tier for this event, so it’s looking like a week where taking a more balanced approach will be the popular route. However, while he hasn’t been his typical consistent self, Webb Simpson will certainly land on my radar as a go-to top tier play. He notched a T8 in his Detroit GC debut last season and this is a course where Webb’s lack of distance off the tee won’t handicap him. Rather, his top tier iron play and consistent putter should carry him to a [very likely] top 10 finish. Simpson also ranks 4th in the field in Par 4 AVG and 2nd in the field in Par 5 AVG -- no one else (in this field) ranks top 10 in both categories, let alone top five. I wouldn’t worry too much about Simpson’s recent missed cut at the US Open two weeks ago. A 7,600+ yard Par 71 (Torrey Pines) is not often going to be the kind of course where Webb’s game shines.

Mid-Priced Targets

Doc Redman | DK: $7.9k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #64

Overall Model Rank: #17

While course history is not a major factor this particular week, it definitely doesn’t detract from any particular golfer, especially if they’ve played well both years in which Detroit GC has been on the PGA Tour circuit. Aside from Doc Redman (T21 in 2020, T2 in 2019), Hideki Matsuyama and Sepp Straka are the only other golfers in the field who have finished inside the top 25 here both seasons. His season long stats aren’t great, which is why he’s relatively low in the “key stats only” rankings. But he’s a golfer whose game is really starting to trend upwards. He’s riding a made cut streak of five which has featured two top 10s. In that stretch, he has shown consistently strong iron play while also gaining strokes with the putter each week. Redman has had a good bit of success at other Donald Ross designed courses in the past and should set up as a trustworthy mid-range option.

Seamus Power | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Overall Model Rank: #9

Normally, Power’s shaky iron play (118th in SG: App) and relative inconsistency (7-of-12 made cuts) would make me feel more comfortable with using him as a 'GPP only' option. However, he enters the week tied for 11th on Tour with a consecutive made cut streak of six, which has included a top 10 and three top 25s. In his most recent start (Travelers Championship, T19 finish), Power ranked 3rd in the field in SG: Approach, so perhaps that’s a sign that his irons are trending in the right direction. Power missed the cut here in 2019 but returned in 2020 to notch a strong T12 result. He’s excellent around the greens (4th in the field) and is a prolific birdie maker. Power was also a late addition to the field so perhaps that allows for him to fly slightly under the radar this week.

Low-Priced Targets

Hank Lebioda | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #34

Overall Model Rank: #21

For these low-tier salaries (43rd most expensive golfer on DK, 63rd on FD), Lebioda’s recent form is about as strong as you could hope for in a field of this caliber. Lebioda has made five straight cuts and his average finish of 23rd in that span actually ranks 1st in the field -- given, not every golfer plays the same events, and each event, field, and the course has its own level of difficulty, but I find it notable nonetheless. He’s coming into this week off of his best finish of the year (T5 @ The Travelers Champ.) and has all the tools to keep his hot streak going another week. The fact that Lebioda has missed the cut at this course in both of his starts here may turn some people off of him, but I will definitely choose to side with the current form here.

Satoshi Kodaira | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #72

Overall Model Rank: #54

Kodaira earned a mention as a value option in last week’s newsletter for the Travelers Championship, largely due to his form from his three prior PGA starts (T19, T13, T11). He fired an excellent opening round of 63 but he couldn’t quite capitalize on the hot start with follow up rounds of 72, 68, and 73. He still came away with a T36 finish, which was perfectly acceptable considering where his salaries were at, but he did ultimately lose strokes in every key tee to green category (SG: OTT, SG: App, SG: ATG). His game was carried by a hot putter (+5.32 SG: P), which can’t be relied upon week-to-week. I’ll still look to take a shot on him in GPPs given these low salaries and typically his irons are going to be sharper than what they were a week ago.

Quick Hits - Other Golfers to Consider

Patrick Reed | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #3

I’m on board with Reed just as much as I am on board with DeChambeau. He doesn’t have the win here like Bryson, but comes in with better overall recent form and stronger, more consistent iron play. Reed did land a T5 here in 2019 in the inaugural Detroit GC debut.

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #11

Definitely more of a GPP ownership leverage play since something does seem 'off' with his game, but Sungjae has made both cuts at this course and should be the lowest-owned golfer out of this top tier (along with Bubba).

Phil Mickelson | DK: $8k, FD: $10k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #93

Overall Model Rank: #64

That PGA Championship win certainly came out of nowhere and Phil hasn’t shown much upside since, but I think this is the sort of event where he could exceed expectations once again. This will be his RMC debut but it’s an easy course where he could be able to coast through without feeling much pressure. I’ll have some shares of Lefty in GPPs, especially since he should be <10% owned.

Si Woo Kim | DK: $8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #27

If you roster Si Woo, you have to realize the extreme wildcard nature of his game. He has all the tools in his bag that I’m looking for this week (#12 in key stats), but it all comes down to whether or not he puts it together across four rounds. When his game is on, he can cruise through a course like this. But he also inexplicably bombs out of nowhere (see; last week). He’ll be another <10% owned GPP play.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #44

Overall Model Rank: #15

McNealy has back-to-back top 30 finishes on Tour and landed a T8 at the RMC in 2020. I’d like to see more consistency out of his irons but he is strong off the tee and has one of the most reliable putters in the field.

Sepp Straka | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Overall Model Rank: #18

Straka has landed a T8 and T11 at Detroit GC the last two seasons and posted a T10 at the Travelers last week where he gained +5.4 strokes on approach (5th in the field). He could keep the momentum going and, for a course that only has two years of history, he’s about as strong of a “course horse” as you can find.

Chez Reavie | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #77

Overall Model Rank: #66

Reavie doesn’t stand out in my player model but he’s finding some legitimate form as of late with a T14, T40, and T25 over his last three starts while gaining +22.2 SG: T2G across those three events. While the putter is always an issue with him, he has shown positive splits on mixed bentgras/poa greens.

Troy Merritt | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #94

Overall Model Rank: #45

The form is looking up for Merritt. He’s made five straight cuts, and eight of his last ten with three top 10s in that stretch. He leans more on his short game and not so much his irons, but that will only take him out of cash consideration since a great week around and on the greens can more than makeup for a lackluster ball striking week (it's just less predictable). He's still a great GPP value target who also happened to finish T8 here a year ago.

Mito Pereira | DK: $7k, FD: $7k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

I’m *really* interested in seeing how well Pereira does this week. He’s been tearing it up on the Korn Ferry Tour, winning back-to-back events in his last two starts with a combined score of 48-under par. Those were his second and third ‘developmental wins’ which earned him an automatic promotion to the PGA Tour. He’s played in three PGA events prior, missing the cut in all three, but if he translates his recent success from the KFT over to this week, he’ll have immense upside. A birdie-fest like the RMC should be a solid event to start off with and he easily has some of the best odds to win out of the value tier (especially as a bare minimum salaried golfer on FanDuel).

Justin Suh | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Suh will be another inexperienced GPP punt play worth consideration if you’re doing MME this week. He looked pretty rough in his previous two PGA appearances (US Open & Wells Fargo Champ), missing the cut in both by a wide margin. But he has made 5-of-8 cuts on the PGA Tour this season, including a T8 back at the Shriners Open in October.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Rickie Fowler

It’s getting late in the season and, for me personally, I’m looking for more of an all or nothing pick here as I try to make a late push towards the top of the leaderboard. Fowler has about as good of a chance at landing a top 10 finish as he does at just straight up missing the cut. For that reason, I’m not necessarily relying on him in DFS formats, but for OAD (and maybe an outright bet)? Why not?! I doubt many will play him and there are signs here and there in recent weeks that his game is returning to what we’ve come to expect from Rickie Fowler. He did finish T12 here last season and at least made the cut in 2019 (T46 finish), so he has more course experience going for him than a large portion of this field. But tail at your own risk!

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the complete 2020-21 PGA season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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