Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Tournament & Field 🏆

The Motor City plays host to the PGA Tour this week as the Rocket Mortgage Classic is set to tee off at Detroit Golf Club. Last year marked the inaugural edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as well as the first time the PGA Tour played at Detroit GC, so we won’t have much course history to go off of this week. Since the restart to the PGA season, we’ve seen extremely stacked fields in each of the last three weeks. Many top players have elected to forego this event, so the strength of this field is pretty average overall. That isn’t to say there aren’t some notable names teeing it up. Golfers like Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, and Hideki Matsuyama headline the 156-player field. About a third of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers are on site, so there are still plenty of recognizable names to choose from. We may have to dig a little deeper in order to find the more suitable value options among the lesser known golfers but I, for one, welcome the challenge. The normal 36-hole cut rule is once again in play -- the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend rounds.

The Course Preview ⛳

Detroit Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,330 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

2019 Cut Line: (-5)

2019 Winner: Nate Lashley (-25)

2019 Course Difficulty: 42nd (of 49)

Detroit GC was designed by Donald Ross and, considering this will be just the second time it will play host to the PGA Tour, if you want to get into some real nitty-gritty research it may be worth looking at player history at some other Ross designed courses (East Lake, Plain View, Aronimink, Sedgefield). But as we saw last season, golfers didn’t have much trouble tackling this course and it turned into a complete birdie-fest. I’d expect things to play out in a very similar fashion this go ‘round. This is a shorter-than-average Par 72 set-up and, being a Par 72, that means there are four Par 5 holes which will allow for a flock of birdies and plenty of potential eagle opportunities. Golfers were able to belt it down the fairway at Detroit GC last year, as the average drive was over 300 yards and overall fairway accuracy was on the higher side at just over 64%.

There has been a bit of an effort made to increase the course difficulty this season, as the rough measured 3.5” last year but is listed at 4” this year, so tee shots that miss the fairway could provide challenging ‘up-and-downs’. Detroit GC features 87 bunkers for golfers to navigate, however there is just one water hazard to contend with. The Bentgrass greens represent the primary course defense here, as they are smaller-than-average (about 5,100 square feet) and play tougher than most greens on Tour. As such, I’ll actually be listing “Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)” within my key stats, which I rarely do considering how volatile putting can be in any given week. The simple fact is that guys with very unreliable putters won’t have much of a chance here. Despite the lack of immense star power, this should be an entertaining event and 100% worth tuning into as folks celebrate the July 4th weekend. Let’s get into it!

Weather ⛅

As always, the forecast can change between now (Tuesday afternoon) and the time golfers tee off on Thursday morning, but currently the weather appears to be a non-issue across all four rounds. Sustained winds should rarely even reach 10 mph, there is no rain in sight, and temps will mostly hover in the 80s. No reason to waste much time here as conditions should be terrific all week. The forecast page will be linked to the image below if you’d like to run a final weather check on Wednesday night.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass (SG: Putt Bent) | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens (SG: ATG) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 6.5/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

There should be zero surprise seeing DeChambeau featured as a go-to high dollar play after he notched his sixth consecutive top 10 finish at last week’s Travelers Championship. You’re obviously paying the absolute premium on him at this point but as the current betting favorite (+650), his win equity, according to bookmakers, is nearly twice as high as the next closest player (Webb Simpson, +1100). Unlike courses across the last three weeks, Bryson will have more opportunities to unleash his booming driver at Detroit GC and really take advantage of the four Par 5s on this course. He didn’t play this event last year but course history, or lack thereof, isn’t really a major concern this week, as much of the field will be playing here for the first time competitively. On paper, Dechambeau ranks 15th in SG: App, 5th in BoB%, 3rd in P4 AVG, 24th in SG: Putt Bent, and 70th in SG: ATG. Despite the lackluster around the green ranking, Bryson does rank 4th in Sand Save Percentage, which will come in handy with the multitude of bunkers protecting these small-ish greens. No one else in the field has been playing as consistent as DeChambeau since the restart so he has proven to be worthy of these lofty DFS salaries. You may risk stretching yourself too thin by forcing him into a safe cash lineup, but if you can find multiple value plays you’re comfortable with, I believe it’s doable. Otherwise, DeChambeau is easily going to be a core GPP play for many people this week. Fade him at your own risk!

Patrick Reed | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 14/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I was a bit surprised to see Reed pop up as the top ranked player in my model for this week but after looking further into things, it does make plenty of sense. While he did disappoint a couple weeks prior with a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, he bounced back last week on his way to a solid T24 finish. Obviously you will want at least a top 15 finish from him when paying these salaries, ideally a top 5. While course history isn’t a significant factor, Reed did finish 5th here at Detroit GC last year in the first iteration of this event. It can’t hurt to have a bit of proven success. Reed also hits on all the key stats very well. He is 30th in SG: App, 3rd in BoB%, 7th in P4 AVG, 23rd in SG: Putt Bent, and 16th in SG: ATG. I do believe there are other guys cheaper than Reed who have similar upside but more safety attached to their game, so he’ll pretty much be a GPP-only target for me.

Mid-Priced Targets

Christiaan Bezuidenhout | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Bezuidenhout is probably one of the better golfers that no one has really heard of, at least in the North American golf scene. He currently ranks as the No. 46 player in the world and, aside from his missed cut (by one stroke) at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Bezuidenhout has played very well and finished no worse than T29 in his four other PGA Tour events this season. I believe the 26-year-old South African is primed for a breakout performance and, in this weaker field, this could be his chance to make it happen. He ranks 6th in SG: App, 17th in BoB%, 26th in P4 AVG, 44th in SG: Putt Bent, and 93rd in SG: ATG. He only has two registered PGA rounds putting on bentgrass greens this season, so he’s likely better than what that ranking of 44th shows. Across 18 PGA rounds on the year, Bezuidenhout is 14th on Tour in overall SG: Putting, gaining .656 strokes per round on the greens. I believe these salaries are very reasonable for him and I’d be willing to trust him in all DFS formats.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #16

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

McNealy has shown to be a safe investment in nearly every event he tees up for, with just one missed cut in his last 14 starts. He has been a pretty popular value option for PGA DFS players this season but after taking a week off following an uninspired T58 performance at the RBC Heritage two weeks back, expect his name to fly a bit under the radar in Detroit. McNealy ranks 82nd in SG: App, 14th in BoB%, 21st in P4 AVG, 21st in SG: Putt Bent, and 54th in SG: ATG. His iron play may not be at an elite level but he does so many other things well that it often doesn’t end up hurting him too badly. He rarely drops shots (8th in Bogey Avoidance) and has shown the ability to efficiently get up and down out of bunkers (5th in Sand Save Percentage). I believe McNealy’s cut-making consistency will continue into this week and he should be a really solid target for cash games.

Low-Priced Targets

Will Gordon | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #17

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Perhaps I’m pushing the envelope too far by giving Gordon a mention in back-to-back weeks but after his T3 performance at the Travelers Championship, I almost feel obligated to highlight him again in what will be a much weaker field. His top 5 finish last week doesn’t feel like it was a fluky performance. Heading into the week, Gordon had three finishes of T21 or better across his four prior PGA events and he ranked 13th in the field in SG: T2G at the Travelers, so he wasn’t overly dependent on the putter. Across the key stats, Gordon ranks 77th in SG: App, 12th in BoB%, 26th in P4 AVG, 63rd in SG: Putt Bent, and 106th in SG: ATG. If you can stomach the significant price increases and realize he is still fully capable of paying off these fairly low salaries, then he should be able to find a spot in lineups this week, especially as a GPP play.

Sahith Theegala | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.5k

Odds: 300/1 | Custom Model Rank: N/A

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Theegala couldn’t quite stitch things together to put on a solid performance last week in what was his PGA Tour debut (as a professional) but he still possesses immense talent and can be a viable (very) low owned GPP punt this week. Expect Theegala to likely be a familiar name on the PGA Tour in the coming years. He is the reigning Ben Hogan Award and Haskins Award winner -- honors bestowed upon the nation’s top collegiate golfer. Patrick Rodgers (2014) was the last golfer to win both awards in the same year. In eight events in his 2019-20 college season, Theegala finished inside the top 20 each time while recording six top 10s and two victories. As already mentioned, the overall strength of the field this week is significantly lower and this course should be much more forgiving to the mistakes a young golfer can make. I’m really liking him as a GPP punt play up in Detroit.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #5 | GPP Preferred

Despite a couple lengthy layovers, Hatton’s game has been world class and he has rapidly shot up to the No. 15th ranked player in the world. He leads the field in SG: App and ranks 2nd in both BoB% and P4 AVG. I’m not sure how willing people will be to pay these kind of prices for Hatton, so he could turn out to be a leverage play among the high-dollar guys.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $10k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #7 | Cash & GPP

After posting a T11 last week, Hovland has improved on his finishing position each time across his last five starts. It’s highly possible he continues that trend in Detroit. He had a strong T13 result here last year.

Kevin Na | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

After failing to defend his title at the Charles Schwab Classic (and not even making the cut), Na bounce back with a highly impressive solo 5th place finish last week where he gained strokes in every primary strokes gained category (OTT, App, ATG, Putting). He is an elite putter on bentgrass greens as well, gaining an average of 1.38 strokes per round this season (24 measured rounds) -- that ranks 3rd in the field.

Doc Redman | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

These are lofty prices for a young golfer like Redman but they are pretty justified at this point. Since the restart, he has finishes of T58, T21, and T11 and ranked 3rd in the field last week in strokes gained tee to green.

Brandt Snedeker | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #32 | GPP Preferred

Sneds has been a pretty streaky golfer for much of this season but it seemed like he was beginning to piece things together at the Travelers Championship last week where he shot par or better all four rounds en route to a decent T41 finish. The worrisome part is the fact that he lost nearly six strokes to the field on approach shots. If he gets his iron game functioning, he’s one of the best putters (5th in SG: Putt Bent) and scramblers (3rd in SG: ATG) in the world and can absolutely contend for the win. He posted a T5 finish at Detroit GC last year.

Brian Stuard | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #33 | Cash & GPP

Stuard has strung together some respectable rounds of golf lately and has just 12 bogeys in his last two tournaments. He enters fresh off of a top 20 finish and turned in an excellent performance at this venue last year with a tie for 5th.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #112 | GPP Only

This is a risky pick but Wolff has tremendous upside if he can play his way into the weekend. He profiles as more of a bomber so this should be the first week since the restart where a course is more suitable for his game (despite missing the cut here last year). He can really pour in the birdies (and eagles) but will go on some frustrating bogey runs as well. We’ll see if he can right the ship this week.

Wesley Bryan | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #45 | GPP Preferred

After returning from a long absence due to shoulder surgery, Bryan has made it to the weekend in each of his two starts and recorded a strong T24 last week. He quietly led the entire field in Strokes Gained: Approach at the Travelers and if he continues that strong iron play, he will pay off these salaries with incredible ease.

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That will do it for our Rocket Mortgage Classic preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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