Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The PGA Tour travels about 700 miles west from Connecticut to Michigan for the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic to be held at Detroit Golf Club (North Course). This event is sort of falling in limbo between two Majors so, among other reasons, it is no surprise that this is one of the weaker fields we’ll see. Still, there is some star power headlined by world number two Dustin Johnson. Well known guys like Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, last week’s Travelers champ Chez Reavie, and US Open champ Gary Woodland are also in the mix. In total, right about a third of the world’s top 100 golfers are on-site in this field of 156 golfers. The usual top 70 (plus ties) 36-hole cut rule is in effect as well.

The North Course at Detroit Golf Club makes its PGA Tour debut as a Par 72 set-up that extends just over 7,300 yards. Detroit GC was designed by Donald Ross and, considering this will be the first time it will play host to the PGA Tour, if you want to get into some real nitty-gritty research it may be worth looking at player history at some other Ross designed courses (East Lake, Sedgefield, Plain View, Aronimink, Sedgefield).

They have renovated much of the course in an effort to challenge professional caliber golfers but without any past history to go off of, I believe we can expect Detroit GC to play as a pretty unambiguous Par 72, though it likely won’t be a cakewalk. Two or three of these Par 5s are birdie holes that everyone should be scoring on. Players will separate themselves by excelling in Par 4 scoring and overall birdie or better percentage. Four of the Par 4s check in under 400 yards, so elite tee to green play will shine. I would also look for guys who are excellent in gaining strokes off the tee, as certain landing zones will provide an extra advantage. Putting some emphasis on length may be on the agenda as well by targeting guys who drive the ball with regularity about 295+ yards. I wouldn’t go as far to say that a shorter hitter won’t be able to succeed here, but the ability for a golfer to leave themselves with a short wedge shot onto the green certainly helps on a course that is moderately lengthy. If you have about 20 minutes and REALLY want to get a detailed look at how Detroit GC will be set up this week, check out the video below. Now, let’s get a look at the weather, the key stats I am basing my player model on, and some golfers to target for the week!

Weather ⛅

On both days, mid-day and afternoon temps will hover in the 80s, possibly touch 90 degrees. Unless a passing shower rolls through, expect the fairways and greens to pick up a little extra speed as the day progresses and the course firms up. Wind-wise, Thursday looks pretty straightforward with single digit sustained winds and no significant gusts. On Friday, sustained winds may hang around 12 mph with 15+ mph gusts which may affect scoring to a slight degree. As of this writing, I wouldn’t give any significant edge to either wave, as both groups will deal with similar conditions, but always check once we get closer to the opening round. As usual, a link to the forecast will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: T2G) | 25%

2. Par 4 Scoring | 25%

3. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 20%

4. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

5. Driving Distance | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Hideki makes for a great target to start your cash builds with. He hasn’t missed a cut all season in 16 starts, he’s recorded four top 10s, and he has finished worse than T32 just once. The form is very strong heading into this week and he’ll look to capitalize on the weaker field. Hideki has had a world class tee to green game for a while now but his main hold up was his struggles on the greens. However, he has gained strokes putting in four straight events and his 1.54 average putts per green ranks 16th in the field. If he continues that trend and combines it with the tee to green play he is known for, he’ll carry legitimate win equity but at a sizable discount from DJ and Rickie. He ranks 2nd in SG: T2G, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in SG: OTT, 5th in BoB%, and 15th in Driving Distance. He may end up being the chalkiest play of the week but I don’t mind eating chalk in cash games and whatever GPP lineups I include Hideki in, I would just look to differentiate elsewhere. Matsuyama’s 12/1 odds to win are tied for second best in the field and he aptly ranks 2nd in my player model for this week.

Sungjae Im (DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Im has played more events this season (26) than anyone else in the field. But he also has made 18 cuts and has six top 10s, and two additional top 15s, to show for it. I feel that his slump between April and May, when he had three missed cuts and an MDF, can partially be attributed to burn out from simply competing nearly every week. He’s looking strong as he heads to Detroit GC after a solo 7th place finish at the Canadian Open and a T21 at last week’s Travelers Championship. One angle I like to consider as a positive for Im this week: he is a PGA Tour rookie so the majority of events he has competed in this season have been on courses he’s playing for the first time -- and in many weeks, he outclassed 90+% of the field. This week, everyone is a course virgin, so there’s no disadvantage for him in that aspect. He hits very nicely on the key stats: 16th in SG: T2G, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in SG: OTT, 9th in BoB%, and 62nd in Driving Distance. Im isn’t the longest guy off of the tee, but he is accurate so his 293.7 yard/drive average is hardly a detractor considering how solid he is everywhere else. He’ll be a top tournament target for me and he checks in at 8th in the player model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Kevin Streelman (DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Here is another tee to green expert who I’ll keep rolling with due to the excellent form. Streelman wasn’t on his game for much of the season and then April rolled around. Since then, he has made all six of his cuts in stroke play events with a 4th place finish, two 6th places, and enters in off of a T15 at the Travelers where he shot all four rounds in the 60's. Like Im, Streelman isn’t overly long off the tee (292.9 yards/drive, ranks 70th) but he is strong elsewhere: 7th in SG: T2G, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in SG: OTT, and 56th in BoB%. He’ll hit a ton of fairways and greens in regulation, so much of his success will hinge on the putter, which has failed him much of the year (95th in SG: Putting) and is a primary cause to his lower BoB%. With a good week on the greens, he should find himself with a late tee time come Sunday. He has solid 45/1 odds and ranks 4th in the model.

Luke List (DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k)

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Luke List in cash? I’d rather burn my money. Luke List in tournaments? At moderate exposure, for sure! List has made only 9/16 cuts this year but he’s gone on to card a top 10 in four of those nine weeks, including a solo 6th at the PGA Championship (followed by two MCs). He is the epitome of “boom/bust”. He is a wild bomber who gains an advantage on nearly everyone in the field as long as he is managing to hit fairways. On a Par 72 with multiple eagle-able holes, the DFS scoring upside is huge with him. He ranks 14th in SG: T2G, 66th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in SG: OTT, 14th in BoB%, and 2nd in Driving Distance. Even taking him at 10-15% exposure, I think you’ll be about double the field. I’d much rather take a shot on him than other guys similarly priced that have basically zero potential for a top 10 result. He has 80/1 odds to win and rates out 26th in the model.

Low-Priced Targets

Alex Prugh (DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

I’ve been writing PGA articles for LineStar for over a year and I know for a fact that Alex Prugh has never made as much as a mention. But after a bevy of missed cuts earlier in the season, he has made the weekend in four of his last five events including a T21 at the US Open and solo 20th at the Travelers in his two most recent starts. Color me impressed. Over the last month, he is bombing it (304.2 yards/drive, ranks 9th) while maintaining great fairway accuracy (73.6%) and hitting a ton of greens in regulation (70%, ranks 18th). For the key stats, he checks in 31st in SG: T2G, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in SG: OTT, 96th in BoB%, and 23rd in Driving Distance. The BoB% suffers because, like so many other guys, his putting has been awful (110th in SG: Putting). However, he gained strokes putting last week and only lost -0.64 strokes at the US Open. Another top 25 performance at these salaries would be excellent value. He is a 150/1 long shot but rates out 14th in the model.

Hank Lebioda (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Lebioda is riding some fine form for someone in this price range and has made seven of his last eight cuts with a couple of top 20s thrown in. Like Sungjae Im, he is another PGA Tour rookie who gets the atypical advantage (for him) of being on an even playing field in terms of course experience. He ranks 18th in SG: T2G, 67th in Par 4 Scoring, 36 in SG: OTT, 13th in BoB%, and 67th in Driving Distance. Considering he has been making cuts regularly in much tougher fields and on (likely) tougher courses, I don’t really mind rolling him out in cash games. Maybe I’ll change my tune on that later in the week but the form, metrics, and DFS scoring have all been strong and he stands out in a major way on my spreadsheet where he rates out 9th! Not too shabby for a guy who is about $1k above minimum salary on both sites.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Brandt Snedeker (DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k) | GPP Only | Only mentioning him because no one will be playing Sneds at this inflated salary coming off of two unappealing finishes. Pure leverage play.

- Billy Horschel (DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k) | Cash & GPP | I could see Horschel being a cornerstone of many balanced lineups. The form is strong, his ball striking has been pretty consistent, he brings plenty of cut equity to the table, and his 30/1 odds are about the best that anyone has in his immediate price range.

Mid-Priced

- Nick Watney (DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k) | Cash & GPP | Nothing is ever too exciting about playing Nick Watney but he’s been strong tee to green, has a fairly consistent putter, and is making enough birdies to give him a very solid shot at a top 30 finish. Outside chance at a top 10.

- Matthew Wolff (DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k) | GPP Only | I’ll look to give this kid another chance again this week (in GPPs) because he can absolutely bomb it. You can check his scorecard from last week to see he is capable of going on major birdie runs. If he makes it through the cut line I wouldn’t be surprised if he picks up a couple eagles on this course.

Low-Priced

- Stephan Jaeger (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.1k) | GPP Only | The German has carded three straight top 30 finishes heading into Detroit. Could be worth a shot if he continues his great play off the tee and around the greens.

- Troy Merritt (DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k) | GPP Preferred | Mentioned him last week and he made it to the weekend but not past the second cut. He fits the stat model too well (ranks 12th) to ignore. Capable of going on birdie runs and post rounds of 65-69. Just needs to string together a full four rounds of golf.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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