By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour nears the end of the “swing season” as golfers get set to tee up for The RSM Classic hosted by Sea Island Resort on Saint Simons Island, Georgia. With the Hero World Challenge (18-player field) and QBE Shootout (team event) left as the only other PGA events until 2022, this tournament will be the final standard stroke play event remaining in the 2021 calendar year. Get your PGA DFS fix in while ya can!

Due to daylight being more scarce around this time of year, The RSM Classic is a tournament that is set up to be played on two separate courses – The Seaside Course (Par 70, 7,005 yards) and The Plantation Course (Par 72, 7,060 yards). Each golfer will play one round on each course over the first two days. Assuming a golfer makes the cut, their remaining two rounds will be played only on the Seaside Course over the weekend. This is a full field event with 156 golfers competing and the traditional cut line rule will remain in play, so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. We’ll also have some noteworthy names out there to choose from with 34 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers in attendance.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Seaside Course

Three rounds are set to be played on The Seaside Course (Par 70, 7,005 yards) so this is the track that should draw most of our attention. It’s also the only one of the two courses that will have ShotLink data and much of the television coverage is also focused here. Since the Seaside Course is a Par 70, it will feature twelve Par 4s, and only two Par 5s – Par 4 scoring will be crucial, as is always the case on Par 70 layouts. The fairways here are average in width and not very forgiving as they become more and more narrow the closer golfers get to the hole. As a result, many golfers will opt to 'club down' off the tee, especially when the wind speeds pick up. This will also put a premium on golfers who can place their shots onto the smaller landing zones and set themselves up for better positioning for their approach shots. The Bermuda grass green complexes are on the smaller side, so I’ll also be looking to find highly guys who can get creative around the greens since the “greens in regulation” percentage may not end up being particularly high on average. Since this is an open links style course that sits along the coast, winds can absolutely come into play as a primary defense. It looks like golfers will see at least a couple of rounds with some significant winds this week. More on the weather below, but be sure you’re checking the most up-to-date forecasts and stack that up against tee times/course designations in case of a potential course/wave advantage (hint: it looks like there will be an advantage, of sorts).

The Plantation Course (Thursday/Friday Only)

Once again, The Plantation Course (Par 72, 7,058 yards) will only be played for one round by each golfer on either Thursday or Friday so I won’t spend too much time going over this one. Since there are four Par 5s as well as treelined fairways which provide more protection from the wind, we can usually expect this course to play up to a couple of strokes easier than The Seaside Course. They did redesign this course a few years back which increased its difficulty, but it should still be the easier of the two setups. The greens here are also Bermuda grass and are actually around 1,000 square feet smaller, on average, than the green complexes on The Seaside Course. More bunkers, as well as water hazards, will come into play on The Plantation Course as well. The extra bunkers scattered around the green complexes is another reason why I will be paying attention to around the green statistics this week.

In general, neither course is overly challenging (pending weather), and winning scores for this tournament have been between 17-under and 21-under par in each of the last five years. A cut line around three-under par can be expected as well.

Strategy 💡

If you’re playing single round showdown contests over the first couple of rounds, I’d recommend targeting golfers who will be teeing up on The Plantation Course since it should be the easier of the two. The two extra Par 5s on The Plantation Course also help provide additional birdie/eagle opportunities.

For full four round contests, I’m going to favor golfers who draw The Seaside Course on Thursday since that is currently projected to be the less windy day between the opening two rounds. You don’t have to base your entire DFS strategy around this approach, but it may not be a bad idea to throw some lineups out there consisting of only golfers playing The Seaside Course on Thursday. Now, we can probably expect the lower scores to come from golfers on The Plantation Course on Thursday, but once the winds kick up on Friday, many of those golfers could end up dropping some shots over on The Seaside Course. That's not *guaranteed* to happen by any means, but it's a reasonable possibility to keep in mind when building lineups.

(Tee times with course designation will be linked below in the weather section)

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Cool fall weather with temps mostly in the 60s and 70s. There is a possibility of some rainfall early Thursday morning but hopefully, nothing strong enough that would hold up play like we saw last week.

Wind Conditions

Thursday: This will be the calmest round of the week wind-wise as sustained speeds top out at 5 mph with no significant gusts.

Friday: Things could be fairly calm very early in the A.M. before sustained winds quickly pick up to 15 mph with 20-25 mph gusts -- certainly strong enough winds that will affect shots.

Weekend: Saturday sets up as the windiest day of the week (15+ mph sustained, upwards of 30 mph gusts) while Sunday is more of a mixed bag with 8-12 mph sustained winds and 15-20 mph gusts.

Verdict: As mentioned earlier, golfers who draw a Thursday tee time at the more wind-affected Seaside Course may possess a noticeable advantage. At this time, I’d personally prefer for around 65% of my player pool to consist of golfers who tee off there in Thursday’s opening round. Keep an eye on the forecast pages (linked to the images below) in case anything changes.

RSM Classic Tee Times & Course Designation

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

6. Par 5 Average | 5%

RSM Classic Model Standouts

Below are the top 10 ranked golfers in both my key stats model (targeting the stats listed above) and overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored). This doesn’t mean these are the top 10 golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should be favorable DFS options this week.

Top 10 Golfers - Key Stats Only

1. Hayden Buckley

2. Louis Oosthuizen

3. Davis Thompson

4. Cameron Young

5. Russell Henley

6. Webb Simpson

7. Cameron Smith

8. Scottie Scheffler

9. Talor Gooch

10. Corey Conners

Top 10 Golfers - Overall Model Rank

1. Webb Simpson

2. Scottie Scheffler

3. Corey Conners

4. Louis Oosthuizen

5. Russell Henley

6. Talor Gooch

7. Chris Kirk

8. Joaquin Niemann

9. Rory Sabbatini

10. Joel Dahmen

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Cameron Smith | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #11

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: YES

Cameron Smith could have easily been the most expensive golfer on the board this week and he’d still make for an appealing DFS play. Instead, he checks in as the 4th (DK) and 3rd (FD) priciest option. He has simply been on a tear for months now dating back to July of last season. Smith has not missed a cut in eight consecutive PGA events while finishing inside the top 15 five times during that stretch. He excels on the stat sheet, particularly when it comes to ranking 3rd in this field in BoB%, 3rd in P5 AVG, and 11th in SG: Putting (Bermuda). On top of that, he’ll draw the (predicted) more favorable course/weather combination over the initial two rounds. Smith, who is a native of Australia, should also fare well once the winds do kick up on The Seaside Course. This will be his PGA debut on this course, but Smith remains a strong all-around candidate to anchor DFS lineups this week.

Corey Conners | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #3

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: YES

Conners has been a bit “out of sight, out of mind” lately as he has not competed on Tour in over a month. Regardless, he’ll be one of the more enticing high-end options to pay up for at The RSM Classic. Conners is averaging 88.2 DKFP over his last five starts (ranks 3rd in the field) and remains one of the best pure ball strikers on the entire PGA Tour (7th in SG: BS). Consistency with the putter has always been his major bugaboo but, fortunately, Bermuda grass has historically been his best putting surface. In three previous appearances at The RSM Classic, Conners has progressively improved upon his finish on each occasion -- T-37 (2017), T-23 (2018), and T-10 (2020). And one final plus with Conners would be his Thursday course tee time draw which puts him on The Seaside Course for what should be the less windier day.

Kevin Kisner | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #70

Overall Model Rank: #49

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: NO

When it comes to Kisner this week, it will be a true battle of course history versus recent form. Kisner is arguably the top “course horse” in the field. He has played this tournament and these courses in each of the last ten years while finishing T-7 or better an incredible five times in the last seven years. Kisner is not too far removed from a victory at the Wyndham Championship in early August, but he followed that win up with with a missed cut (Northern Trust), a lackluster T-66 (BMW Championship), another missed cut (Shriners), and a T-54 (CJ Cup). He lost strokes on approach in all four of those events and the putter has failed him along the way as well, so the recent form really does take some of the wind out of the sails from all of that juicy course history. With all of that said, if Kisner bounces back this week, he wouldn’t be the first struggling golfer to have things “click” at a place where he has previously found a massive amount of success at in years past. I wouldn’t touch him in cash game lineups, but he’ll certainly fly in on the GPP radar.

Mid-Priced Targets

Joel Dahmen | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #10

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: YES

Dahmen is not the most exciting golfer to roster but he flashed his upside just last week en route to a T-5 finish at the Houston Open and, in general, he’s simply a guy who remains balanced throughout his bag. In this field, he checks in at 21st in SG: BS and 18th in BoB%. Dahmen has a decent amount of course history here as well, making 3-of-5 cuts at The RSM Classic. Now, his best finish in this tournament has only been a T-37, but I would look for him to easily outdo that this week.

Chris Kirk | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #7

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: YES

Kirk returns to Sea Island GC where he has found a great deal of success throughout his career. He came away victorious at the 2013 RSM Classic and has landed five finishes of T-18 or better in the last eight seasons at this tournament. He’s also riding a made cut streak of seven starts on the PGA Tour and should be poised for another strong run down in Georgia. Kirk will be a part of the opening group teeing off on the first hole of The Seaside Course on Thursday morning so the hope would be for him to get off to a strong start there, carry that over to the easier Plantation Course on Friday, and parlay the momentum into the weekend for, hopefully, another top 20 RSM Classic finish.

Robert Streb | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #93

Overall Model Rank: #54

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: NO

Streb is very clearly not someone who “pops” on the stat sheet but he is the only two-time winner of this event and he'll head into this week as the current defending champion. He also comes in with some sharp form working in his favor after notching two top 10s within his last three starts. Streb won’t get the predicted course/weather advantage (and, again, we won’t really know if there is, or was, a true advantage until after Friday’s round is complete) but the combination of having multiple wins here alongside some very strong short term recent form makes him a worthy DFS target out of this salary range.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Alex Smalley | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #19

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: YES

In his first full season with a PGA Tour card in his pocket, Smalley has been taking advantage of the fall swing and enters The RSM Classic has made four consecutive cuts, including finishes of T-15 and T-12 in his last two outings. His ball striking may not be at an elite level (50th in SG: BS) but his short game is carrying him to plenty of rounds shot in the 60s. Smalley’s best key stats for this week include rankings of 3rd in P4 AVG, 15th in SG: ATG, and 17th in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). I wouldn’t be all too surprised to see Smalley snag another sneaky top 25 finish which would return excellent value at these salaries, particularly on DraftKings where Smalley is the 48th most expensive golfer.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #48

Overall Model Rank: #26

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: YES

If you’re a long time PGA DFS veteran, you know the drill with DMac by now. His putter is so elite, especially on Bermuda grass greens, that as long as he doesn’t implode with his irons, he has a shot at posting a very strong finish. We’ve seen McCarthy follow that formula and rip off a couple of those higher-end finishes recently with a T-11 and T-15 to his name over the last two weeks. McCarthy made some noise here at this tournament a couple of years ago as well when he landed a T-8 finish in 2019. There is a decent chance he keeps his momentum rolling for a third consecutive week!

Zach Johnson | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #140

Overall Model Rank: #135

Thursday Seaside Course Tee Time Advantage: YES

I’m pretty much ignoring the stats and models for ZJ as he simply hasn’t gotten much momentum going early on in the young 2021-22 PGA season. However, short Par 70 layouts are where Zach Johnson thrives at and he’ll return to Sea Island Resort where he is a member and where he has notched three top-eight finishes within the last four years. And, while it wasn’t anything to write home about, his T-54 from last week at the Houston Open, which was his first made cut of the season, could be a nice confidence booster heading into a tournament that he has found a massive amount of success at in recent years.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $10.9k, FD: $12k | Cash & GPP

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.9k | GPP Preferred

Adam Scott | DK: $9k, FD: $10.9k | Cash & GPP

Mid-Priced:

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10k | Cash & GPP

Mito Pereira | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.9k | Cash & GPP

Luke List | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k | GPP Preferred

Low-Priced/Punts:

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | GPP Preferred

Hudson Swafford | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k | GPP Preferred

Davis Thompson | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.2k | GPP Preferred

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!