By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

We enter into the second-to-last week of the swing season as the PGA Tour heads out to Sea Island Resort on Saint Simons Island, Georgia to tee it up for the RSM Classic. This event is a bit unique as golfers will compete on two separate courses – The Seaside Course (Par 70, 7,005 yards) and The Plantation Course (Par 72, 7,058 yards). Each golfer will play one round on each course over the first two days. Assuming a golfer makes the cut, their remaining two rounds will be played on the Seaside Course over the weekend. This is a full field event with 150 golfers competing. Following The Masters, the traditional cut line rule will come back into play, so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. Clearly, the field won’t be as strong as it was last week, but we still have some notable names out there to choose from with seven of the top 25, and 42 of the top 100, golfers in the world in attendance.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Seaside Course

Three rounds are set to be played on the Seaside Course (Par 70, 7,005 yards) so that is the track that should draw most of our attention. It’s also the only one of the two courses that will have ShotLink data and, if I recall correctly, most (or all) of the television coverage is also focused on this course. Since the Seaside Course is a Par 70, it will feature twelve Par 4s and only two Par 5s – Par 4 scoring will be crucial, as is always the case on Par 70 layouts. The fairways here are average in width and not very forgiving as they become more and more narrow the closer golfers get to the hole. This will put a premium on golfers who can place their shots onto smaller landing zones to set themselves up for better positioning as they take their approach shots. The Bermuda grass green complexes are on the smaller side, so I’ll also be looking to find highly capable scramblers since the “greens in regulation” percentage may not end up being particularly high on average. Since this is an open links style course that sits along the coast, winds can come into play as a primary defense. It looks like golfers will see at least a couple of rounds with some significant winds. More on the weather below, but be sure you’re checking the most up-to-date forecasts in case a wave advantage develops.

The Plantation Course

Once again, The Plantation Course (Par 72, 7,058 yards) will only be played for one round by each golfer on either Thursday or Friday so I won’t spend too much time going over this course. Since there are four Par 5s as well as treelined fairways which provide more protection from the wind, we can usually expect this course to play a couple of strokes easier than The Seaside Course. They did redesign this course a couple of years back which increased its difficulty, but it should still be the easier of the two, especially with some winds likely coming into play. The greens here are also Bermuda grass and are actually smaller, on average, than the green complexes on The Seaside Course, and more bunkers, as well as water hazards, will come into play. But that is another reason why I will be paying attention to scrambling statistics this week. 

Strategy 💡

If you’re playing showdowns contests over the first couple of rounds, I’d recommend targeting golfers who will be teeing up on The Plantation Course since it should be the easier of the two. The two extra Par 5s also obviously provide a couple of extra birdie/eagle opportunities.

For full four round contests, I’m going to slightly favor golfers who draw The Seaside Course on Friday. That is currently the less windy day and I also believe there could be a bit of an advantage playing the same course for three days in a row (assuming any particular golfer makes it past the cut line first). You don’t have to base your entire DFS strategy around this thought process, but maybe it wouldn’t be a bad idea to throw some lineups out there consisting of only golfers playing The Seaside Course on Friday.

Weather ⛅

Thursday: Sustained winds around 15 mph for basically the entire day with 20 mph gusts.

Friday: 10-15 mph winds with gusts not much stronger than 15 mph. Morning wind speeds could be slightly lower.

Weekend: Saturday is looking like the windiest day of the tournament with sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. Sunday looks fairly calm, for a coastal course, with 10-12 mph sustained winds and 15 mph gusts.

No real threat of rain all week with sunny/partly cloudy skies and temps will be cool, mostly in the 60s and low 70s.

Verdict: I don’t believe there is any wave advantage to speak of but, as mentioned above, with this multi-course rotation I would be slightly more inclined to roster golfers who are teeing up on The Seaside Course on Friday since there should be a bit less wind.

As always, be sure to run a final weather check on Wednesday night (or very early Thursday morning) as things could always change. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

RSM Classic Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better % | 20%

4. Scrambling | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting - Bermuda | 10%

6. Driving Accuracy | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Russell Henley | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 2nd SG: BS | 2nd P4 AVG | 54th BoB% | 1st Scrambling | 76th SG: P (Berm.) | 15th Driving Acc.

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field

In terms of consistency, very few golfers on Tour have been at Henley’s level lately. He has finished no worse than T29 in his last seven starts and has four top 10s thrown into the mix in that span. Henley has missed the cut in this tournament for the last two years, but he made the cut in his remaining five starts and landed inside the top 10 in four of those, so the course history is certainly there. Considering he is in arguably the best form of his career, I’d be shocked to see him MC this year. He also draws the Seaside Course on Friday which, as previously mentioned, I believe will be the preferred day to play on that course. Not only are Henley’s irons some of the hottest on Tour, his scrambling has been elite so he could be able to bail himself out of most errant approach shots. If his putter is just a bit above average this week, I believe another top 10 finish is in order. 

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $9k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #9 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 30th SG: BS | 69th P4 AVG | 8th BoB% | 48th Scrambling | 34th SG: P (Berm.) | 73rd Driving Acc.

Regular readers of this newsletter are used to seeing Munoz’s name pop up. His recent consistency and form rival that of Henley and Munoz had constantly been underpriced over the last couple of months, though his salaries have finally risen to more appropriate levels. In his last nine starts, Munoz has finished worse than T27 just once and he has four top 15sin that span. He also leads this field in average DraftKings fantasy points over the last five starts. While Munoz has made just one of three made cuts at The RSM Classic, that made cut came last year by way of a solo 3rd place finish and he was one shot off from competing with Tyler Duncan (eventual winner) and Webb Simpson in a playoff. If it wasn’t for a disappointing Sunday round of 75 (+3) this past week, Munoz would have been in contention for a top 10, perhaps even a top 5 finish at last week’s Masters. It became apparent that no one was going to catch DJ, but Munoz was in the mix for a while there.

Mid-Priced Targets

Brian Harman | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 63rd SG: BS | 28th P4 AVG | 35th BoB% | 20th Scrambling | 36th SG: P (Berm.) | 48th Driving Acc.

Harman is riding a made cut streak of eleven and is churning out solid results week after week. He’s made 7-of-9 cuts at this event, including a pair of top 10s and a T14 finish here a season ago. Harman is just an example of someone who does everything “good but not great,” as evidenced by his key stat ranks. Still, his form, strong course history, and solid overall metrics have him ranked as a top 10 golfer in my model this week. Harman is the 17th most expensive golfer on both DraftKings and Fanduel and I’d say a top 25 finish is well within his wheelhouse, which is great for cash games, but maybe you’d want to go elsewhere if you’re looking for more winning upside in GPPs.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 55/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 101st SG: BS | 10th P4 AVG | 10th BoB% | 47th Scrambling | 6th SG: P (Berm.) | 33rd Driving Acc.

Honestly, I don’t hate DMC as a cash play considering he has just one missed cut in his last 12 starts. But if you’re familiar with McCarthy, you know that his game is heavily carried by his putter which is far and away the most volatile aspect of golf. Within his last eight starts, McCarthy has shown immense upside with three top 10 finishes. However, within that same span, he has finished T41 or worse four times, including one missed cut (Safeway Open). So even though he is making it past the cutline on a consistent basis, it is pretty feast or famine when it comes to his final result on Sunday. McCarthy did card a T8 finish in this tournament last season so he can clearly do well on these courses but, again, it really comes down to how much his putter will need to carry his game this week. Love him for GPP builds though.

Low-Priced Targets

Harold Varner III | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 70/1 | Custom Model Rank: #18 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 9th SG: BS | 19th P4 AVG | 13th BoB% | 71st Scrambling | 131st SG: P (Berm.) | 79th Driving Acc.

We may be getting some nice fantasy point per dollar upside with HV3 at these prices. Varner had a blowup round two at the Bermuda Championship when he shot a round of 80 and went on to miss the cut. But he bounced back the following week while carding a T15 at The Houston Open, which was his third top 15 finish in his last six starts. Varner has only played this event twice but he has made the cut both times and his most recent start here came a couple of seasons ago when he finished 23rd. Varner is not typically a good putter on Bermuda grass greens. However, if he can just get a little momentum with the flat stick this week, he can go on great birdie runs due to his elite ball striking and tee to green play.

James Hahn | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 29th SG: BS | 5th P4 AVG | 25th BoB% | 93rd Scrambling | 65th SG: P (Berm.) | 20th Driving Acc.

I’m not sure what got into Hahn in his three starts between Sept. 10th and Oct. 8th, but we’ll see if he can recapture that magic at The RSM Classic. Hahn, of course, reeled in back-to-back-to-back top 10 finishes in that aforementioned span, though he did come back to earth a couple of weeks ago with a T50 at the Houston Open and prior to that three event top 10 run, Hahn had missed his previous three cuts. So, we’ll need to get a bit more consistency out of him in the long term for him to be considered ‘cash safe’ but you can see that he hits well on many key stats and he’s also made the cut in this tournament 3-of-4 times. I’d approach Hahn with cautious optimism this week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Webb Simpson | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k

Odds: 8.5/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Easily the top dog in this field with 8/9 made cuts on this course alongside four top 10s and multiple runner-ups. Simpson has finished no worse than 17th in his last seven starts. On a long course like Augusta National that played even longer due to the wet conditions and didn’t exactly ‘fit Simpson’s game’, he still managed a top 10 finish. His irons and short game is just too strong not to consider him.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #20 | Cash & GPP

Oosty has one of the smoothest swings on Tour and his top 25 finish at last week’s Masters was his fifth such result in his last six starts. He’s only played here once professionally way back in 2010 but he came away with a 4th place finish.

Joaquin Niemann | $9.1k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Preferred

Niemann was forced to miss the Masters last week due to testing positive for COVID which was unfortunate considering he was shaping up to be one of my favorite value plays at Augusta. We have seen other golfers look a little ‘off’ in their first one or two starts following their coronavirus-related absences, so Niemann will be more of a GPP play for me, but there was no question that his game was looking very solid leading up to the Masters.

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #58 | GPP Only

Hughes is a former winner of this tournament (2016) and has landed a trio of top 10 finishes in his last seven starts. However, he is one of those golfers who is ultra dependent on his putter, though Hughes’ irons have shown improvement in recent months. He’s a bit ‘boom-or-bust’ but very much worth a spot in your GPP player pool.

Doc Redman | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 55/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Redman has not been incredibly consistent over the last few months but he still comes into this tournament with three top 5 finishes in his last seven starts. Redman is a great ball striker (ranks 6th in this field) and is highly accurate off the tee (18th in Driving Accuracy) so his game should translate very well to these two courses, specifically the Seaside Course. Finished 23rd here in his event debut last year. He also draws a very early tee time on the Plantation Course on Thursday and gets the Seaside Course on Friday when it should be less windy.

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $7k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #16 | GPP Only

Following the finishes of T17 and T8, NeSmith had a miserable showing in his most previous start at the Houston Open. However, really it was just his putter and around the green play that failed him… the ball striking was still strong. He ranks 14th in this field in SG: BS and he hits plenty of fairways (31st in Driving Accuracy) and actually ranks 1st in the field in greens in regulation. If he bounces back with his short game, expect a sneaky strong week out of NeSmith with some likely low ownership.

John Huh | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #26 | Cash & GPP

If you want to snag Webb Simpson in cash, you’re going to need to take a shot on a cheap flier or two. Huh stands out as a cash safe option, considering he has seven of his last eight cuts. He’s a good ball striker with a reliable putter and has made the cut in this event 5/6 times with one top 10 (in 2015). For cash, we’re really just looking for Huh to make the cut and I believe Huh has a great chance to do that and perhaps make a run at a top 30-35 finish.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Doc Redman | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Got a much needed hit from DJ at the Masters so let's see if Doc can keep up the momentum! Note: I also really like Russell Henley in this spot if you haven't already used him in your OAD leagues (I had him for the Houston Open).

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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