Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2018 RSM Classic ⛳️

Hello again golf fans and welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! Before taking a brief layoff from action, the PGA Tour will travel to the Seaside Island Resort in Georgia for the RSM Classic. This is a bit of a unique event as golfers will play on two different courses this week -- The Seaside Course (Par 70, 7,005 yards) and The Plantation Course (Par 72, 7,058 yards). On Thursday and Friday golfers will play a round on each course, then for the weekend both rounds will be played on The Seaside Course. As such, that will be our primary focus when determining which golfers to target.

This is a full field event so there will be a 36-hole cut that will move the top 70 golfers (and ties) onto the weekend. The field is also pretty weak with only five of the world’s top 60 golfers competing, so we may be digging into some more unfamiliar names than we’re used to. The Seaside Course itself, being a Par 70, will feature 12 Par 4's and only two Par 5's. Par 4 scoring will be crucial. Also, the fairways here are tight and will put a premium on guys who can place their shots onto tight landing spots and set themselves up for better positioning on the Bermuda greens.

Weather ⛅

As usual for any event with a cut, we will look at weather for the first two rounds to determine if there is any advantage to be had for either the AM/PM or PM/AM waves.

On Thursday it appears that winds will be around 15 mph sustained with gusts reaching near 20 mph and settling down to single digit sustained winds in the afternoon with gusts in the teens. However, rain should be moving through the area late Wednesday night which could soften up the course a bit for the early golfers on Thursday.

On Friday it’s looking like another breezy morning with sustained winds around 12 mph and gusts nearing 20 mph once again. Winds should settle in the afternoon to the single digits. Temperatures throughout the first two rounds will be brisk, in the 40's and 50's.

Currently, I’d give the AM/PM wave a slight edge in terms of a more favorable weather draw, as they should see the soft course conditions on Thursday morning while dealing with the least windy conditions on Friday afternoon. Nothing worth avoiding the PM/AM wave altogether by any means but if you’re on the fence between a couple guys and one has the AM/PM draw and the other doesn’t, consider giving the nod to that golfer, especially if they play on The Plantation Course on Friday PM as scoring comes easier on that course.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg.) | 25%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

4. Driving Accuracy | 20%

5. Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 5%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Lucas Glover (DK: $9.9k | FD: $9.7k)

Glover is off to a nice start, riding some great form in the new season with finishes of T17, T14 and most recently a T7 at The Shriners. He’s 6 of 7 cuts made at this event, including a 9th place finish in 2015, and he sets up well statistically. He ranks 25th in the field in SG: App, 51st in Driving Accuracy, 5th in GIR, 18th in P4 Avg., and 43rd in BoB%. He’s a much better value on FanDuel as the 19th highest priced option (5th on DraftKings) but he should be in line for a top 15 finish and can be relied upon in all formats. He has 33:1 odds to win.

CT Pan (DK: $9.7k | FD: $10.4k)

I’m not extremely interested in spending for many of the guys at the very top of pricing this week and Pan has been the model of consistency as of late. His last five starts have resulted in progressively higher finishes after going T38, T30, T23, T22, and T16 at last week’s Mayakoba Classic. We’re not used to spending this much on Pan but given the weakness of the field, I believe he makes a great starting point in lineups. His past two starts at this event have resulted in T13 and T6 finishes. He’s a very consistent golfer and this course suits his game well. He ranks 37th in the field in SG: App, 5th in Driving Accuracy, 22nd in GIR, 21st in P4 Avg., and 19th in BoB%. Combined with his form, course history and statistical rankings, he grades out as my top overall play in my personal model and carries 22:1 odds to win.

Mid-Range Targets

Jim Furyk (DK: $8.2k | FD: $9.5k)

I’m not going to shy away from the #OldManPlays this week, as Furyk is coming in hot off of a T6 finish at the Mayakoba Classic last week after missing the cut at The Shriners. He has found success each time he has played here, making three of three cuts which included two top-10 finishes. Furyk's lack of length will not punish him here and he should find a ton of fairways relative to the field. He ranks 86th in SG: App (meh), 1st in Driving Accuracy (yes!), 2nd in GIR, 10th in P4 Avg., and 67th in BoB%. He should be a reliable option to make the cut and a very solid shot at landing a top-20 finish. He has 50:1 odds and comes in 5th in my personal player model.

Bill Haas (DK: $7.8k | FD: $9.6k)

Prior to his pretty dreadful 2017-2018 season, Haas was a mainstay in my, and many others, cash game lineups. It seems something is starting to click with his game as of late with three of three made cuts to start the season including two top-15 results. His recent statistical data is not worth going into because it’s honestly pretty ugly and you’ll just have to chalk this recommendation up to me liking the recent form. An encouraging sign for him this week: he’s 5 of 6 in cuts made on this course that includes three top-25’s and a 2nd place finish in 2010. He’s worth a strong look if his form looks to hold steady this week and he carries 50:1 odds.

Low Priced Targets

Joel Dahmen (DK: $6.9k | FD: $9.6k)

This is for sure more of a DraftKings play, as they simply refuse to price Dahmen accordingly even in a super weak field. He’s already 5 for 5 in cuts made this season with a couple of top-30 finishes in that span. He’s only played here twice, missing the cut in his first trip in 2016 but came away with a T49 finish last year. He checks in 44th in SG: App, 9th in Driving Accuracy, 46th in GIR, 48th in P4 Avg., and 39th in BoB%. He won’t inspire you with a ton of winning upside as a 100:1 long shot but at his (DraftKings) price, a made cut and decent finish is plenty enough to return value.

Ted Potter Jr. (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.5k)

Very much in the same vein as Furyk, Potter’s classic old-man “grind it out” game should be a good fit this week. He’s made seven of his last eight cuts and is most recently coming off of a T14 finish at The CJ Cup. He’s also two of three cuts made on this course including a T13 finish at last year’s RSM Classic. Most noteworthy, he is 11th in Driving Accuracy, 20th in GIR, 42nd in P4 Avg., and 33rd in BoB%. He should be another value play that is a great bet to make the weekend and has 100:1 odds.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

High Priced

- JJ Spaun (DK: $10.4k | FD: $10.1k) | Paying this much for Spaun kind of makes me shudder but he has three high finishes in a row and had a 2nd place finish here last year.

- Joaquin Niemann (DK: $8.9k | FD: $11k) | Niemann will be on my radar pretty much every week. Too much upside with this kid and when he gets a feel for a course, he can scorch it.

Mid Priced

- Sam Ryder (DK: $8.6k | FD: $9.9k) | Not the best showing at Mayakoba but has made 11 of his last 12 cuts and the two top-5 finishes in his last four starts, clearly show his upside. Should be a DFS favorite this week.

- Chris Kirk (DK: $8.5k | FD: $10k) | The form isn’t currently clicking on all levels but his course history is phenomenal. Four top-5’s in nine appearances including a win in 2013.

Low Priced

- Anders Albertson (DK: $7.3k | FD: $8.4k) | Liking the upside of the young PGA Tour rookie once again after three consecutive made cuts and, though he has less rounds registered than most everyone in the field, he checks in first overall in my key stats rankings and has some of the best odds in this price range of 66:1.

- Tyler Duncan (DK: $6.1k | FD: $7.6k) | Complete GPP dart throw, primarily for DraftKings. He found some form at The Mayakoba last week with a T38 finish and came away T25 at last year’s RSM Classic.

We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

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• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That'll wrap things up for this week! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Best of luck!

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