Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

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Tournament & Field 🏆

Dustin Johnson brought home a cool $15 million and was crowned the 2019-20 FedEx Cup Champion this past Monday. Just three days later, the 2020-21 PGA Tour season will be underway. That’s one of the great aspects of this sport… there isn’t much of an off-season! And now with the schedule realignments due to the COVID-19 hiatus, we have a US Open right around the corner next week!

The season tees off in Napa Valley, California with the Safeway Open which will be hosted by the Silverado Resort & Spa (North Course). Since this tournament is falling smack dab in the middle of last season’s playoffs and next week’s US Open, this 156-player field is understandably on the weaker side. Shane Lowry (World No. 28) is the only top 30 ranked player in the world within this field. In total, just 15 of the world’s top 100 golfers will be on site. It is a bit of a reality check considering how spoiled we’ve been with elite fields practically every week since the mid-June restart. I expect that a lot of PGA DFS players will simply decide to look past this event and not really play much this week, especially with the NFL season kicking off. But there are still contests posted and money to be made! Studying up and learning about some lesser-known golfers can always turn out to be very useful down the road but, really, many of the guys in this field are fairly well-known if you’ve been following the PGA somewhat closely for the last few months. As usual, the cut line will come after 36 holes with the top 65 (plus ties) making it into the weekend. While I do think this is a week where we can play both cash and GPPs fairly comfortably, I still wouldn’t go too heavy on the bankroll just due to the overall talent level in this field.

The Course Preview ⛳

The North Course at the Silverado Resort & Spa is a Par 72 that stretches 7,166 yards. It’s not an overly tough layout, but it can show its teeth, especially if the weather is sub-optimal. Over the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 18th, 29th, 23rd, 36th, and 33rd -- so typically, middle-of-the-pack. With the four Par 5s, there are going to be a high amount of birdies scored this week, along with some eagles. But several holes on this course can turn out to be a bit tricky and produce some large numbers so some significant back-and-forth shifts on the leaderboard can be expected. There are several course defenses in play here – primarily residing in the undulated poa greens and tight, difficult-to-hit tree-lined fairways which feature plenty of strategically placed bunkers that protect the preferred landing zones. The North Course isn’t long by any means and accuracy over distance tends to be more rewarding even though the rough isn’t overly penalizing. Overall, the golfers most likely to excel this week are the ones who will keep their ball in the short grass, possess an accurate approach game, and capitalize on the four easy Par 5 holes while separating themselves from the pack by scoring well on the more difficult Par 4s.

Weather ⛅

You can look at the forecast below and see that there really isn’t any reason to be concerned about the weather this week. There are still some devastating fires across the state of California but it doesn’t seem like it will affect this tournament.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Par 4 Average | 15%

5. *Good Drive % | 10%

> *The percent of time a player hit a good drive. On Par 4 and Par 5s, the number of fairways hit, + the # of Greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot. / by the number of par 4 and par 5s played

High-Priced Targets

Sergio Garcia | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #30

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Key Stat Ranks*: 39th SG: App | 51st BoB% | 59th P5 AVG | 4th P4 AVG | 14th GD%

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

This will be Sergio’s first ever appearance at this course but, in this weaker field, he is likely the best ball striker and he ranks 1st in strokes gained tee to green. If only the man could start getting things going with his putter (128th in SG: Putting). One thing this course has been able to produce is winners who typically struggle with the flat stick. If you look back to some winners in previous seasons, you’ll see names like Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, and Emiliano Grillo. All of those guys are typically strong tee to green players but, long term, their putting statistics are just not good at all. I don’t hate Garcia as a cash game play, since I’d be shocked if he missed the cut. But he is still more on the volatile side and you clearly need a solid result for the prices you will have to pay for him this week. He’ll be a high-end GPP play for me and someone who I may soften up to, in terms of cash viability, as the week progresses.

Harold Varner III | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 25/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Key Stat Ranks: 11th SG: App | 20th BoB% | 24th P5 AVG | 15th P4 AVG | 64th GD%

HV3 has made 5/5 cuts on this course with three finishes of T17 or better in the last four years. He seems to have an affinity for this place and despite missing the cut in three of his last five PGA events, I believe this is a week where we can roster him with confidence. The field is obviously going to be much weaker than what he has been competing against lately. As you can see in his key stat rankings, his game should fit in well at the Safeway Open considering he ranks inside the top 25 in 4/5 of the key stats for this course. With solid course history, great metrics, and fairly solid recent form, HV3 checks in #1 in my player model for the week and should be a viable play in cash and GPPs.

Mid-Priced Targets

Sam Burns | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #25

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Key Stat Ranks: 83rd SG: App | 22nd BoB% | 4th P5 AVG | 23rd P4 AVG | 83rd GD%

Burns may not have the sharpest irons but he tends to make up for that with long, booming drives and gains plenty of birdie opportunities -- it’s a similar golfer profile to last year’s Safeway Open winner, Cameron Champ. Burns’ lack of course history (missed cut in his lone start here in 2018) knocks him down in my CMR a bit but prior to missing the cut at The Northern Trust, Burns had finished T32 or better in 5/6 of his previous PGA Tour starts, so I do like his form heading into the week, relative to the field. Burns is also a solid putter on Poa greens (30th in SG: P - Poa) and should be one of the better bets to knock in multiple eagles this week with all of those ‘get-able’ Par 5s in play.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Key Stat Ranks: 19th SG: App | 38th BoB% | 29th P5 AVG | 4th P4 AVG | 5th GD%

Like so many others, Norlander’s 2019-20 season ended with a missed cut in the opening week of the PGA Tour playoffs at The Northern Trust. Prior to that, Norlander had cemented himself as a steady golfer after reeling off six consecutive made cuts which included finishes of T6, T12, and T23. Norlander’s lack of distance (90th in Driving Distance) isn’t going to hurt him much here and he should be able to land on a ton of fairways, score well on the Par 5s, and potentially separate himself with his excellent Par 4 scoring ability.

Low-Priced Targets

Wesley Bryan | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: N/A

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Key Stat Ranks: N/A

Bryan doesn’t have enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained stats but I believe he may be worth a look this week when searching for value. Bryan underwent shoulder surgery back in January 2019 and made his return to the PGA Tour in this past June’s RBC Heritage. In his four starts since his return to action, Bryan has finished T68, T24, T21, and T31. It seems that his surgery fixed whatever issue was bothering him in that shoulder. Sixteen rounds of golf is a small sample size to go off of when evaluating a golfer who has seen limited PGA action over the last couple years, but in those four events, Bryan has played clean, steady golf and this should be the easiest field he’s competed in since his return by a wide margin.

Scott Stallings | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Key Stat Ranks: 25th SG: App | 18th BoB% | 46th P5 AVG | 4th P4 AVG | 70th GD%

If you’re in search of a cash-viable punt play, Stallings fits the model quite well this week. Prior to his Northern Trust MC, Stallings had made eight consecutive cuts. His course history isn’t fantastic (1/4 made cuts) but he did land a T21 here back in 2014. He’s not a sexy play but he should bring some solid cut equity to the table and did flash a bit of upside last season with a pair of top 10 finishes.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Brendan Steele | DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

These are lofty prices to pay for Steele but he has won this event twice (‘16 & ‘17) and enters in with really solid form.

Chez Reavie | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #19 | Cash Preferred

Reavie is comfortable on this course with 6/6 made cuts and an average finish of 28th. He’ll need to pick it up on the Par 5s (100th in P5 AVG) if he wants to snag a top 10 finish, but I expect him to, at the very least, churn out a top 35 result. He’s maybe more of a cash play than a GPP play considering his salaries (but strong cut equity).

Cameron Davis | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

The Australian is coming in hot on the heels of a T29, T15, T32, and T12 to end his 2019-20 season. Missed the cut here last season but nabbed a T17 in 2018 and, if his form holds, he should be in line for a top 20 finish this week.

Mark Hubbard | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Sneaky elite cut-making ability and finished T13 here last season.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #43 | GPP Preferred

If you want to roll the dice on a guy who has an excellent putter (1st in SG: Putting - Poa) but often depends heavily on it, McCarthy is your guy. If he just plays about even to the field T2G, his putter can vault him into a top 10 finish. That’s a big “if” though.

Cameron Tringale | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #7 | Cash & GPP

Tringale has strong course history (5/6 made cuts) and you have to feel for the guy after he got DQ’d for signing an incorrect scorecard at the PGA Championship. He had been playing well most weeks last season and did end the year off a solid T29 at the Northern Trust.

Seamus Power | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #26 | GPP Only

Perhaps not the worst GPP punt considering Power ranks 1st in the field in BoB% and 4th in P5 AVG. Finished between T9 and T38 in five of his last six PGA events. I still would use caution rolling him out in cash games, however.

Chris Baker | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #16 | GPP Only

Baker made the cut in his last five starts and capped the season off with a T20 at the Wydham Championship. Pretty solid iron player (33rd in SG: App) but an unreliable putter. He could still surprise this week and, at these salaries, all he really needs to do is make the cut.

My One and Done Pick

Harold Varner III | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.5k

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That will do it for our 3M Open preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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