Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview 🏌️

The PGA Tour kicks off the West Coast swing in Napa Valley, California for the Safeway Open which will be hosted at the Silverado Resort and Spa on The North Course. Golf fans should rejoice as we’ll have quite a bit of talent in this field in comparison to the last two weeks. A third of the world’s top 100 golfers will be in attendance including well known names like Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, and Hideki Matsuyama. And, yes, Tony Romo will be competing on a sponsor’s exemption as well. Be prepared for plenty of Romo TV coverage before he inevitably gets cut on Friday afternoon. The cut will once again be set at the top 65 players (and ties) after 36 holes. It’s only a two event sample size but so far, with the reduced cut rule this year, only about 5% of DraftKings lineups have featured 6/6 golfers that made it through the cut line. Some of the low 6/6 rates could be attributed to the relative ‘scrubbiness’ of the last two fields, so I believe this week will give us a better representation of what we should typically expect most weeks. I’ll personally be more comfortable throwing a bit more bankroll towards PGA this week as opposed to the previous two events. There are just so many more ‘known quantities’ to choose from for this tournament.

The North Course is a Par 72 that stretches 7,166 yards. It’s not an overly tough layout, as it ranked 29th (out of 49) in terms of difficulty last season and featured the 10th most birdies. The North Course also provided the 13th most bogeys of any track last season so we could see some very back-and-forth battles on the leaderboard. There are several course defenses in play here -- primarily residing in the undulated poa greens and tight, difficult-to-hit tree-lined fairways. The North Course isn’t long by any means and accuracy over distance tends to be more rewarding. Overall, the golfers most likely to excel this week are the ones who will keep their ball in the short grass, possess an accurate approach game, and capitalize on the four easy Par 5 holes while separating themselves on the more difficult Par 4s.

Weather ⛅

Wind conditions noticeably pick up Thursday afternoon with 10-15 mph sustained winds and potential for 20+ mph gusts. Friday’s conditions will be pretty consistent so I’d consider that day a wash in terms of wave advantages. But if the current forecast holds then we could see a decent edge for the AM/PM wave as golfers teeing off Thursday morning will get the calmest conditions of the first two rounds. Remember, this is a course where accuracy off the tee is important so some extra wind could definitely impact scoring. I wouldn’t let the forecast have a huge impact on my decision making at this time but do be sure to check up on the outlook once we get closer to Thursday morning. As usual, the forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 5 Scoring | 20%

4. Par 4 Scoring | 15%

5. Good Drive % | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Quick Note: FanDuel goofed on the pricing for Ryan Moore (DK: $9.1k, FD: $7k). There’s clearly no reason for him to be minimum salary. On top of being generally one of the better golfers in the field, he has 33/1 odds to win and has two top 10 finishes at The North Course in three starts (finished runner-up last year). I imagine he’ll be something wild like 85% owned in cash games on FanDuel unless other people simply don’t pick up on this pricing error. But I thought it’d be worth mentioning nonetheless.

Adam Scott | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.7k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas Odds: 14/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Scott closed out the previous season on fire while carding three consecutive top 10 finishes and racking up a bevy of strokes gained on approach and on the greens. This will be his season debut and first career start at The North Course but he’s typically a solid West Coast golfer. He ranks 5th in SG: App, 9th in BoB%, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 52nd in Par 4 Scoring, and 82nd in Good Drive %. Many may remember his awful performance at The Open Championship back in July, which I largely blame on him switching putters. As long as he continues to carry his patented broomstick putter then I wouldn’t be afraid to use him in any format.

Chez Reavie | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.4k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5

Reavie’s name may not leap off the page, as he’s caught in that limbo between “high priced studs” and “mid-range value.” However, he comes in with some of the more extensive and solid course history having made 5/5 cuts at The North Course with an average finish of 27th. On paper, he checks off the boxes nicely in 4/5 of my key stats. He ranks 13th in SG: App, 28th in BoB%, 63rd in Par 5 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, and 10th in Good Drive %. After carding a solo eighth place finish to close out the season at the BMW Championship, I believe he is poised to continue his success into the start of the new 2019-2020 season.

Mid-Priced Targets

Scott Piercy | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.3k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7

This stands out as another pricing error over on FanDuel, though not as egregious as Ryan Moore’s misprice. Piercy is coming off of a season where he made 21 cuts in 24 starts. He missed the cut here in 2018 but prior to that he carded finishes of 3rd (2016) and 17th (2017). He snagged a strong T19 finish to start the season a couple weeks ago at The Greenbrier and should be in contention to produce a similar result, or better, this week. He’s well-rounded across all key metrics, ranking 39th in SG: App, 25th in BoB%, 25th in Par 5 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, and 26th in Good Drive %. I’d trust him across all formats and I’d have a hard time not starting FanDuel cash game builds with Piercy and Moore.

Bud Cauley | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.4k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6

If you can excuse his withdrawal from The Northern Trust, Cauley is actually bringing in some of the better form in this field. He’s made the cut in his other five previous contests, including three top 25 finishes and most recently a T14 at The Greenbrier. He’s made the cut at The North Course in all three of his trips and landed a 7th place finish in 2017. Cauley ranks 52nd in SG: App, 26th in BoB%, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 51st in Par 4 Scoring, and 77th in Good Drive %. Cauley can be a bit inconsistent as he showed last year when he missed the weekend nine times in 25 starts, but I’ll take some shares while the form is rolling along.

Low-Priced Targets

Cameron Tringale | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8

Tringale has opened the season nicely with a T36 at The Greenbrier and a T16 at The Sanderson Farms Championship. He holds some pretty extensive course experience and has made the weekend four times in five trips out to Napa Valley. He ranks 30th in SG: App, 24th in BoB%, 56th in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, and 40th in Good Drive %. Tringale was a pretty consistent source of fantasy production last year and closed the season out making seven of his final eight cuts. In this price range, Tringale is one of the standouts in my custom model. I’d trust him enough to roll out in any format.

Robby Shelton | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #19

After starting with T7 and T28 finishes this season, I’m really encouraged by Shelton’s outlook moving forward. He won two events on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019 and has quickly stepped up his game in his move up the ranks onto the PGA Tour. He checks in at 23rd in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 34th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, and 1st in Good Drive %. Now, with fewer PGA rounds played than most of the field, Shelton’s stats are somewhat misrepresented due to the small sample size. Still, on a course where finding the short grass is important, Shelton is going to hit a ton of fairways and set himself up for success.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.2k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 6.5/1 | CMR: #1

JT typically starts off the season strong, which was certainly the case when he last played here in 2015 (3rd) and 2016 (8th). He finally put his putting woes behind him at the end of last season and you know that he’ll crush most, or all, of the field in tee to green play. He and Patrick Cantlay are the class of this field but, due to pricing restrictions, I’d likely only reserve both guys for GPPs. That is, of course, unless you’re on FanDuel and get the Ryan Moore free square.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.6k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #10

Morikawa started to fade a bit in the PGA Tour playoffs but I am too high on his steady iron play to keep him out of my player pool. He should find a ton of fairways and if he can make some moves on these poa greens, then I’d expect only good things from one of the best young stars on TOUR. He has yet to miss a cut dating back to last season.

Mid-Priced Targets

Phil Mickelson | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k

GPP Only | Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #94

This is partially a recommended play just because I feel like golf is better when Phil is playing well. After winning at Pebble Beach early last season, things kind of went off the rails for Phil around March when he would go on to miss the cut in seven of his next ten starts. We’ll see if he can start this season off the right way. It’s a definite possibility considering he has a great track record at The North Course after finishes of 17th (2018), 3rd (2017), and 8th (2016).

Lanto Griffin | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #9

Griffin’s form is trending up in a big way after ripping off ten consecutive made cuts, including a 13th and 11th place finish to start this season. He has some excellent birdie-making upside and is rolling one of the hottest putters in the field. He has some of the best odds to win in his given price ranges.

Low-Priced Targets

Si Woo Kim | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k

GPP Only | Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #44

Si Woo is almost always a GPP-only play but he is churning out some made cuts lately, highlighted by a 5th place finish at the Wyndham Championship. He is the epitome of “boom/bust” but he can come out of anywhere in any given week and dominate an event when you least expect it.

JJ Spaun | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.2k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 150/1 | CMR: #42

Spaun has a pair of made cuts to start the year and usually has some nice success in the West Coast swing, particularly in his home state of California. He’s made two of three cuts at The North Course and might be a nice surprise from the value tier this week.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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