Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The young gun, Joaquin Niemann, started the new PGA season off with a dominating win at The Greenbrier last week. Now the second week of the Fall swing continues as the PGA Tour travels down south to The Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. As we can typically expect in the early season, the field strength is going to be on the weaker side with just 16 players in the top 100 of the Official Golf World Rankings in attendance -- Brandt Snedeker (OWGR No. 41) being the highest ranked golfer in the field. Even without the superstars on site, this is still a good time of the season to get familiarized with some lesser known talent. The 36-hole cut rule will, once again, come down to the top 65 (and ties) who will move on to play the weekend. Last week, we immediately saw some impacts from this season’s new cut rule change, as only about 5% of all DraftKings lineups featured 6/6 golfers making the cut (per @CutSweats on Twitter). Tough stuff!

The Country Club of Jackson is a Par 72 set up which extends 7,440 yards and has hosted the Sanderson Farms Championship every year since 2014. The course itself isn’t overly difficult; a winning score around 20-under can typically be expected. However, The CC of Jackson still ranked as the 26th most difficult venue (out of 49) last season so it is no cakewalk. The mostly tree-lined fairways are narrow and feature tight landing zones in many locations. As a result, that will require solid accuracy off of the tee as the rough here can be a bit penalizing. The green complexes are fairly wide open with relatively fast, but consistent, Bermuda grass greens. Overall, accurate ball strikers who don’t miss a ton of fairways will reign supreme so long as their putter doesn’t completely fail them. Being a Par 72, a little extra emphasis should go towards some Par 5 scoring metrics as well. 

Weather ⛅

We could have a chance of seeing a bit of a wave advantage this week. Thursday morning and Friday afternoon currently project to have the calmest winds (5-8 mph sustained, 10-14 mph gusts). Thursday afternoon and Friday morning may see more impactful winds (10 mph sustained, 15-20 mph gusts). I wouldn’t put a ton of weight on this now, but currently the AM/PM wave has the slightly more favorable weather draw. As always, in case anything changes, run a final weather check Wednesday night before making any final decisions. The forecast page will be linked to the image below (also, check out the “Superforecast” tab for a more detailed outlook).

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

3. Par 4 Scoring | 20%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

5. Driving Accuracy | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas Odds: 25/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Joaquin Niemann overshadowed the other young PGA talent last week, and everyone for that matter, but Scheffler still fired off a very respectable 13-under score -- good enough for a T7 finish. It seems that after dominating on the Korn Ferry Tour, he is ready to take the PGA Tour by storm. His strokes gained sample size is a bit skewed since he has fewer rounds played than a large portion of the field, but overall he ranks 1st in SG: BS, 2nd in BoB%, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 BoB%, and 5th in Driving Accuracy. He’ll be able to hang tough in most events where more high end talent shows up but he should definitely be in the conversation this week on Sunday given the less-talented field. He competed at the Sanderson Farms Championship last year and came away T45. Obviously, I would expect him to drastically improve upon that result in his second trip to The Country Club of Jackson.

Vaughn Taylor | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.3k

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4

You can pretty much count on Taylor being one of the highest owned golfers on both sites this week but I have a hard time not just locking him into cash game builds. He has excellent course history at The CC of Jackson (5/5 made cuts, one top 10, average finish of 19th). Taylor also reeled off 20/26 made cuts last season including nine straight to close out the year (there is no cut at the BMW Championship where he finished T16). His form just looks very strong heading into the new PGA season. He isn’t dominant on paper but is still solid all around. Taylor ranks 60th in SG: BS, 22nd in BoB%, 41st in Par 4 Scoring, 68th in Par 5 BoB%, and 26th in Driving Accuracy. Given the form, course history, and respectable stats, anything too far off from a top 25 finish would be a pretty significant surprise.

Mid-Priced Targets

Si Woo Kim | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.5k

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #60

Si Woo in cash games? Never. But, depending on the course, he’s almost always in play as a high-risk, high-reward tournament option. This is the sort of course where Kim can absolutely come out of nowhere and run laps around everyone. This Par 72 is not overly long, the fairways are tight, there are plenty of mid-range iron shots to be had, and the greens are pretty consistent -- all course characteristics that can suit Si Woo’s game, though he did miss the cut in his lone trip here back in 2015. But that’s what you have to prepare yourself for if you’re building lineups and you click on the name “Si Woo Kim.” He made just 15/27 cuts last season but landed five top 10 finishes -- so (quick math) a third of his made cuts netted him a top 10 result. After missing eight of nine cuts between April and July, Kim started to shape things up with a solo 5th and a T28 in two of his final three starts of the season. Heading into his season debut, he’s not going to shine on the stat sheet -- people who miss nearly half of their cuts rarely will. But he ranks 80th in SG: BS, 18th in BoB%, 66th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 5 BoB%, and 66th in Driving Accuracy. The birdie making ability is certainly there and I expect a decent ball striking week from him, especially on his approach shots, as his strength lies in the 150-200 yard range which is where many second/third iron shots will come from this week.

Roberto Castro | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.2k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 70/1 | Custom Model Rank: #29

Castro made the weekend in 15 out of 21 of his starts last season, including five straight to wrap things up. His last two trips to Jackson, Mississippi have netted him a 4th place finish (2015) and a 5th place finish (2018) so he must love the lay of the land out there. Castro is another golfer who doesn’t exactly look great on paper, ranking 68th in SG: BS, 68th in BoB%, 61st in Par 4 Scoring, 94th in Par 5 BoB%, and 41st in Driving Accuracy. Really, I’m relying on his pretty decent form heading into this week as well as the previous success on this course. I believe he’s a fringe cash play but a stronger GPP option.

Low-Priced Targets

Doc Redman | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #45

Redman is off to a fine start in his PGA career after making five of his last seven cuts with three top 20s which includes a solo runner-up finish at last season’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’ll carry some of the better odds to win in his given price ranges, particularly on FanDuel. And after snagging a strong T24 finish last week, I’d expect him to keep things rolling down in the south as he makes his course debut at The CC of Jackson. He is 5th in SG: BS, 4th in BoB%, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 BoB%, and 5th in Driving Accuracy. He should be viable in all formats.

Johnson Wagner | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.2k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Vegas Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #25

When you dip down this low in the pricing hierarchy, you’re not going to find too many ‘safe’ options. Wagner, especially on DraftKings, stands out as a decent guy to punt in cash games and tournaments. Wagner has made six straight cuts and 13/18 in total last season. He also has some pretty solid experience at The CC of Jackson with 3/5 made cuts. Those three made cuts have come in his last three appearances on this course and have resulted in finishes of 35th (2018), 34th (2017), and 15th (2015). He checks in at 88th in SG: BS, 25th in BoB%, 47th in Par 4 Scoring, 63rd in Par 5 BoB%, and 42nd in Driving Accuracy. Not too shabby considering his prices. He should find himself inside the cut line this week and have a reasonable chance at a top 25 finish.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced Targets

Sungjae Im | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.6k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 14/1 | CMR: #13

This course sees plenty of first time PGA Tour winners take the podium and Im has consistently grinded strong finish after strong finish over the last few months. Niemann took the crown last week for his first victory. Don’t be surprised if Im does the same down in Mississippi.

Corey Conners | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.2k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 28/1 | CMR: #5

Wherever ball striking is key, Conners is typically going to pop up in the player models. I still don’t trust his putter enough to where I’d rely on him in cash games but he will have strong upside at a course that he finished runner-up at last year.

Mid-Priced Targets

Wyndham Clark | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.2k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #20

Clark has some shaky iron play but his distance off the tee, strong putting, and excellent birdie ability makes him a very interesting target. He ended last season with seven straight made cuts and has made the cut at this course in both of his appearances in the last two years.

Nick Taylor | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #22

Taylor is one of the premiere course horses this week after winning here in 2014 and making 5/5 cuts in total with an average finish of 14th place. Not the sexiest play and these certainly are not prices we typically pay for Nick Taylor, but he clearly has a knack for this track.

Low-Priced Targets

Robby Shelton | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #7

Shelton led everyone in the field last week with 23 birdies and sat atop the leaderboard for a while there. Ultimately, he landed a T7 finish and will look to continue to carry his success from the Korn Ferry Tour over to the PGA Tour full time.

Shawn Stefani | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.4k

GPP Only | Vegas: 125/1 | CMR: #38

Stefani completely bombed on me (and many others) last week so there’s no way I’ll consider him for cash games at the moment, just in case he developed some sort of hitch in his game in the brief off-season. However, his overall recent form is still some of the best in this price range and he has back-to-back top 10 finishes at The CC of Jackson in the last two years, so the GPP upside is still alive in my book.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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