By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The Fall swing continues as the PGA Tour travels down south to The Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. As we can typically expect in many early season events, the field strength is going to be on the weaker side, with just 19 players in the top 100 of the Official Golf World Rankings in attendance – Sungjae Im (OWGR No. 24) being the highest ranked golfer in the field. Even without a ton of superstars on site, this is still a good time of the season to get familiarized with some lesser known talent. The 36-hole cut rule will, once again, come down to the top 65 (and ties) who will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Country Club of Jackson is a Par 72 set up, which features the standard four Par 3s and four Par 5s, and extends 7,460 yards. This has been the host course for the Sanderson Farms Championship every year since 2014, so there is a bit of reliable course history to go off of with some of this week’s golfers. The course itself isn’t overly difficult; a winning score around 15 to 20-under can usually be expected. However, The CC of Jackson still ranked as the 29th most difficult venue (out of 49) last season, so it isn’t an outright cakewalk.

The mostly tree-lined fairways are about average in width but can feature tight landing zones which are protected by strategically placed bunkers on many holes. As a result, that will require reasonably solid accuracy off of the tee, as the rough here can be a bit penalizing. However, I will say that bombers can also find success here as well. If guys miss fairways but are able to hit it 310+ yards and use a wedge out of the rough as they make their approach shots, then that “bomb and gouge” strategy can certainly work out. The green complexes are elevated and fairly wide open, but do possess a bit of slope and undulation while being protected by bunkers and numerous water hazards. Missing the greens on approach shots could create difficult ‘up and downs.’ The greens themselves are made up of Bermuda grass and will run somewhat fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter) but they should also carry consistent putting lines. Overall, accurate ball strikers who don’t miss a ton of fairways (or bombers with solid wedges) will reign supreme so long as their putter doesn’t completely fail them. Being a Par 72, a little extra emphasis should go toward some Par 5 scoring metrics as well.

Weather ⛅

I’m not really seeing any significant weather impacts this week. Wind gusts may venture into 15+ mph territory during the first couple rounds but overall, sustained wind speeds will mostly be in the single digits. No rain in sight either. The cooler temperatures in the mornings (high 40s to mid 50s) may cause some of the short hitters off the tee to be a bit shorter -- something to think about. You don’t *need* to have great distance to do well at this course, but I also don’t want guys who are only going to be hitting 260-280 with the driver on most holes.

As usual, run a final weather check on Wednesday night in case anything changes. The most up-to-date forecast will be linked to the image below.

Sanderson Farms Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking | 35%

2. Birdie or Better % | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Sam Burns | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 61sr SG: BS | 39th BoB% | 61st P4 AVG | 52nd P5 BoB% | 13th SG: P (Bermuda)

*Key Stat Ranks are always listed in relation to the field in any given week.

A rough round of 78 took Burns out of winning contention last week but he still bounced back with a 66 (-6) round on Sunday to card a respectable T28. Burns has now finished T32 or better in seven of his last nine starts. For these current salaries, we definitely want more of a top 10 result, and he does have that kind of upside, but you do have to acknowledge the solid consistency. Burns has made 3-of-3 cuts at the CC of Jackson, including a T3 here in 2018. He has been carrying one of the hottest putters on Bermuda grass for a while now, so if his ball striking stays a bit above average, he could easily contend for a win come Sunday. Burns was one of my favorite targets last week and I’m content with going back to him again this week.

Doc Redman | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8

Odds: 30/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 1st SG: BS | 2nd BoB% | 3rd P4 AVG | 9th P5 BoB% | 46th SG: P (Bermuda)

If there is a “stat sheet stud” to be had in this field, Redman would appear to be the guy who could claim that title. Only a couple golfers in this field rank inside the top 10 in three of my key stats. Meanwhile, Redman ranks top 10 in four. He also has shown immense upside, with a pair of T3 finishes in his last three starts. Redman does have three missed cuts within his last six starts but considering the low strength of this field and the not-overly-difficult course on tap for this week, he should be a guy to rely upon in cash and GPP contests. Redman’s putter on Bermuda grass hasn’t been the best part of his game but at the very least he hasn’t been losing strokes, on average (+0.14 SG: Putting on Bermuda in his last 31 rounds). If he is just average (or slightly above average) with the putter in comparison to the field this week, his elite ball striking could carry him to a top 10 result with potential for a podium finish.

Mid-Priced Targets

Cameron Davis | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 60/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 37th SG: BS | 32nd BoB% | 53rd P4 AVG | 17th P5 BoB% | 41st SG: P (Bermuda)

I’m really surprised to see Davis come in with these sort of affordable mid-range DFS salaries. I would have guessed he’d be much closer to $9k on DK and $10k on FD. Davis has made five consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour with finishes of T36, T29, T15, T32, and T12. Sure, there are no sexy top 10s in that stretch but for these salaries, a top 25ish finish would be perfectly fine value. Davis did miss the cut here in his Sanderson Farms Championship debut in 2018, but last season he came back and carded a T28. He’s solid across the board, per the key stats, and is particularly strong on Par 5s where he either scores birdie or eagle on 52.6% of P5 holes. If he was priced more appropriately, I’d consider him more of a cash play but I’ll take him across the board this week. For tournaments, however, realize that he may be a bit chalky, so I’d look to go either underweight or considerably overweight on Davis in comparison to the field. For example, if we project Davis to be 20% owned in GPPs, I’d either put him in 10% of my lineups, or make a stand on him and go with 30% exposure or higher.

Sepp Straka | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 70/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 28th SG: BS | 24th BoB% | 31st P4 AVG | 54th P5 BoB% | 39th SG: P (Bermuda)

Straka is a tad “boom/bust-ish” to be considered for cash game lineups but I think I’ll definitely want some shares of him in tournaments due to his upside. He is off to a nice start to the 2020-21 PGA season after landing a T14 at the Safeway Open and a T33 at last week’s Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship. He has historically excelled on Par 72 courses and he ranks 9th in this field in average DK fantasy points scored over his last ten starts. Straka is, however, 0-for-2 in made cuts at the CC of Jackson. Even though I’d be surprised to see him miss the weekend this week, I am aware of the risk he brings to the table.

Low-Priced Targets

Kristoffer Ventura | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 91st SG: BS | 11th BoB% | 6th P4 AVG | 28th P5 BoB% | 39th SG: P (Bermuda)

Ventura stands out as another underpriced option in this field. For reference, last week Ventura was $9,200 on DraftKings and $10,600 on FanDuel. The field is stronger overall this week but, in my opinion, it’s not *that* much stronger. Ventura has made the cut in six of his last seven starts and has four top 25 results in that span. The 3M Open was his only missed cut in that stretch, and he only came up one shot short of making the weekend there. Ventura’s iron play is not a very impressive part of his game (124th in SG: Approach) but he’s one of those “bomb and gouge” kinda players I could see succeeding this week. He carries a booming driver (318.3 yards off the tee avg over last month) and he’s also great at getting up and down (ranks 1st in SG: Around the Green). No issues rolling out Ventura at these prices.

Adam Schenk | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7 | Cash Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 58th SG: BS | 38th BoB% | 55th P4 AVG | 50th P5 BoB% | 30th SG: P (Bermuda)

Continuing on with guys who saw massive salary drops from last week, Schenk was $8,500 on DK and $10,700 on FD at Corales. He went on to finish T56 so a salary drop was certainly deserved, I’m just not sure if it should have been by this much… especially on DraftKings. Schenk is simply a guy who should carry plenty of cut equity, considering he has made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour along with 3-of-3 made cuts at the CC of Jackson (T7 in 2018). However, in his last eight starts, he hasn’t finished higher than T30 (Rocket Mortgage Classic) so perhaps he is more suitable as a cheap cash game target than a tournament flyer. Schenk just does everything decently well without struggling in any one particular key metric.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Will Zalatoris | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #11 | GPP Preferred

Get prepared to see plenty of this kid this season. After dominating on the Korn Ferry Tour, he has already impressed with back-to-back top 10s on the PGA Tour which includes that awesome T6 at the U.S. Open. Just check out his OWGR page to see the sort of consistent results he churned out on the KFT in 2020. And let’s be honest, the field this week isn’t really all that much stronger than a KFT event.

http://www.owgr.com/en/Ranking/PlayerProfile.aspx?playerID=19428

Adam Long | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 35/1 | CMR: #35 | Cash & GPP

Long’s game is really trending up after making nine of his last ten cuts and starting off the season with a T13 (U.S. Open) and solo 5th (Corales). Long was another guy who really could have won last week, as he started his final round with a two shot lead, but a 3-over round knocked him back to 5th. He’ll be worth strong consideration this week.

Henrik Stenson | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 45/1 | CMR: #86 | GPP Only

In terms of golfer pedigree, Stenson is among the top names in this field. However, we simply haven’t seen him play much, nor play well since late in 2019 when he won the Hero World Challenge. He is coming off of a strong T21 last week and if his accurate and consistent overall game ever fully ‘clicks’ back into form soon, I want to have some shares.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #26 | Cash & GPP

DMC makes another appearance this week. He’s arguably the best putter on Tour and definitely the best putter on Bermuda grass in this field. While I don’t usually target ‘putting specialists’ outside of GPPs, McCarthy has earned cash consideration after making the cut in seven of his last eight starts. He also has strong finishes at the CC of Jackson the last two years: T18 (2019) & T7 (2018).

Cameron Percy | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 110/1 | CMR: #28 | GPP Preferred

Percy has T8 and T23 finishes to start the season and has made the cut at the CC of Jackson in his last four trips, including an 11th place result last year. The rib injury that held him out of some tournaments late last season seems to be behind him.

Davis Riley | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k

Odds: 160/1 | CMR: #119 | GPP Only

Riley is another guy rising up the Official World Gold Ranks after a solid season on the Korn Ferry Tour where he snagged a couple wins and a few other high-end results. He isn’t the most consistent guy but he’ll have some legitimate upside. Also finished T39 in this tournament last year.

Wesley Bryan | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #11 | GPP Preferred

Bryan fell one stroke short of the cut line in his last start at the Safeway Open, which would have given him 5-for-5 made cuts since making his PGA Tour return following a shoulder injury. His ball striking has been very solid (23rd in SG: BS) and he checks in at 7th in BoB% and 10th in P4 AVG. If he simply makes the cut, it’s instant value at these salaries, but he’s also one of my favorite overall sleepers this week.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Will Zalatoris | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.6k

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That will do it for our Sanderson Farms Championship preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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