By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

Welcome back my fellow golf degens! The PGA returns from its brief off-season holiday hiatus and golfers are set to tee off the Tour’s first event of the 2021 calendar year. Good riddance 2020! I hope everyone had a great time bringing in the New Year and here’s to this being a prosperous year, both in DFS and elsewhere in your life. This week will take golfers out to the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Normally the only way to gain an invitation to this event is to have won a PGA tournament in the previous calendar year (hence “Tournament of Champions”). Due to all of the unique circumstances in 2020, anyone ranked inside the top 30 in the OWGR also received an invite despite whether or not they won a tournament last year. That obviously means that this 42-man field is loaded with star power -- 22 of the top 30 ranked golfers in the world will give this tourney a go and only eight guys competing are ranked outside the top 85 in the OWGR. This is a no cut event, so hey, everyone in the field gets a guaranteed paycheck along with a nice trip to Hawaii… must be nice!

With a small field and no cut, I typically advise people to go light on their bankrolls. Many of these guys haven’t played a competitive round of golf in a month or more so “current form” really is more of an assumption based on how guys competed in their last notable starts. But regardless, it’s always nice to get your feet wet by playing these early season events if you are new to PGA DFS – or if you’re a PGA veteran, you can play simply to get back into the swing of things. As a reminder, when it comes to lineup construction the best way to try to land on a unique GPP lineup will be to leave some salary on the table. That especially rings true in these small field events.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Plantation Course is a Par 73 set-up that extends 7,600 yards and stands out as a very unique PGA Tour venue. Not only is it is the only Par 73 course on Tour but the course is also built onto the side of a mountain near the coast. Because of its location, this course can be affected pretty dramatically by winds. The Plantation Course at Kapalua has still routinely produced winning scores into the 20-under range and scores have even hit 30-under on multiple occasions. However, a number of renovations prior to last year’s Sentry TOC were put in place to make this a more difficult venue. The winning score last year was 14-under, so it would be reasonable to assume that those renovations worked as intended. I’ll be interested to see if a similar winning score occurs once again.

In general, this course won’t play as long as the advertised 7,600 yardages would indicate. There are a plethora of drastic elevation changes that will shorten the course and there are only three Par 3 holes as well. Golfers will see wide open fairways off of the tee with very little rough coming into play. It is possible for very errant tee shots to find some super problematic rough, but for the most part, we can expect over 70% of tee shots to find the short grass. When golfers step up to make their approach shots, they’ll be targeting some of the largest green complexes on Tour. The large bermudagrass greens have moderate amounts of undulation and should run fairly firm -- around 11 on the stimpmeter. At first glance, bombers would seem to have the advantage here due to the course length and wide open layout, but I’m putting my preference towards the elite iron players who will be able to go pin seeking this week.

Once again, I do think this is a good week to play fairly light with your bankroll due to the small field and golfers coming off of an extended competitive break. But one thing is certain -- if you tune into this tournament on TV, you’ll see some picturesque Hawaiian scenes which are unmatched by essentially any other course on the PGA Tour. Also, remember that this event will tee off at 2:00 pm ET on Thursday. Let’s dig into a weather outlook, key stats to weigh for the course, and some golfers to consider at different price ranges.

Weather ⛅

There’s no cut so the weather isn’t *as* important to worry about but it’s always worth tracking just in case there is some kind of wave advantage. Looking at the forecast image below, we can see that round one on Thursday will bring sustained winds near 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph. However, those winds should affect both waves equally. Otherwise, things look surprisingly calm on Friday and Saturday before 15-20 mph winds come into play on Sunday. In typical Hawaiian fashion, golfers will see plenty of sunshine and temps in the mid-70s… not bad for the first week in January!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.7k, FD: $12k

Odds: 7/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 3rd SG: App | 2nd BoB% | 3rd P4 AVG | 12th P5 BoB% | 18th SG: OTT

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the specific field for any given week.

Prior to the break, Dustin Johnson was showing off some of the most freakishly elite form we’ve seen in years, so it’s a little difficult to highlight Justin Thomas over him. But JT clearly has an affinity for this course. Not only did he win here last season (post-renovation) but he notched a 3rd place finish here in 2019 and an additional win in 2017. The form was also perfectly fine prior to the break as he went into the month long hiatus coming off of six straight finishes of 12th or better, including a couple of runner-ups. When he’s dialed in, JT’s iron play is virtually unmatched. He makes for an elite pivot off of DJ this week.

Patrick Reed | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 8th SG: App | 1st BoB% | 25th P4 AVG |1st P5 BoB% | 30th SG: OTT

Reed finished 2nd in this tournament a year ago so I like the fact that he’s shown some upside on this course following the renovations. He also has a win to his credit here back in 2015 and followed that up with a runner-up finish in 2016. Reed should be able to feast on these four Par 5s and he leads the field in birdie (or better) percentage on Par 5 holes. No issues with the form prior to the break either as he finished no worse than T14 in his previous four starts. Reed can be a frustrating golfer to roster in PGA DFS at times but I personally think he has the best chance to win out of all the guys not named Dustin Johnson or Justin Thomas.

Mid-Priced Targets

Collin Morikawa | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #17 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 4th SG: App | 29th BoB% | 34th P4 AVG | 13th P5 BoB% | 22nd SG: OTT

Morikawa is a golfer who may come out of this break as a beneficiary from the time off. He hasn’t played since the Masters back in November, nearly two months ago, and he was potentially in need of a mental reset because he definitely wasn’t playing up to his newfound lofty standards. Aside from a solid T12 finish at the CJ Cup, Morikawa’s other previous four starts have resulted in two missed cuts and underwhelming finishes of T44 and T50. But in his Sentry TOC debut last year, Morikawa reeled in a strong T7 finish. If he can come out this week mentally and physically fresh then there is a chance he can snap back into the form we saw him possess for much of his young PGA career. He’s a dark horse candidate for a win this week but I’d reserve him for GPPs just in case the form still isn’t there.

Cameron Smith | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #13 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 24th SG: App | 12th BoB% | 23rd P4 AVG | 6th P5 BoB% | 34th SG: OTT

Smith was trending in a big way prior to the break, which he went into on the heels of a T2 at The Masters. He has gained strokes on approach in nine straight starts so if those irons stay hot, his game, in general, should as well. He’s another great fantasy scorer when it comes to Par 5s, which should come in handy this week. Really one of his big issues is driving accuracy but that won’t be as much of a detriment at this course with its wide, forgiving fairways. Smith doesn’t have much course experience (T17 in 2018) but I’m looking for him to carry his momentum from late-2020 into the 2021 portion of the season.

Low-Priced Targets

Ryan Palmer | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #12 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 14th SG: App | 3rd BoB% | 7th P4 AVG | 2nd P5 BoB% | 13th SG: OTT

Palmer easily stands out in the value range this week and, as you can see, he absolutely crushes the key stats I have lined up for this course. He finished T17 here last year, which a similar result would be great from a FPts/$ standpoint considering he is the 30th (DK) and 28th (FD) most expensive option on the board this week. The last time we saw Palmer in action, he also strung together very promising finishes of T4 (ZOZO) and T17 (CJ Cup). We can probably expect Palmer to be a fairly chalky option in this price range but he feels like a strong salary relief option if you’re playing cash games this week.

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #30 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 39th SG: App | 23rd BoB% | 36th P4 AVG | 20th P5 BoB% | 41st SG: OTT

If Hughes is going to make waves this week, it’s probably going to come by way of his short game. He ranks 10th in the field in strokes gained around the greens and 3rd in the field in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). He’s also 1st in the field in three putt avoidance. The irons aren’t reliable but we’ve seen him get his approaches relatively on point at times which has resulted in a few top 10s over the latter half of 2020. Hughes will be a very boom-or-bust option but if you’re taking a shot on one of these bottom of the barrel guys, he’s as worthy of a target as any.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 6/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

This is pretty much a “no sh*t, Sherlock” recommendation but, hey, if there’s anyone just getting into PGA (DFS) just know that this guy was on fire prior to the break. Here are his finishes over his last seven starts: 1st, 2nd, 6th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd. Nutty. He has also finished inside the top 10 his last eight starts on this course, including a pair of wins (2018 & 2013).

Xander Schauffele | DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Solid pivot off of some of these other elite options. Runner-up on this course last year and won in 2019. X is usually about as solid of an investment as you can make in PGA DFS but the upside isn’t always there.

Daniel Berger | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #14 | GPP Preferred

There was an extended stretch across last season where you could pretty much just lock Berger into your lineups and figure out what other five guys you were going to roll with. He had a nine start stretch where he landed an astounding seven top 10s including a win (Charles Schwab Challenge). The top 10s kinda fizzled away down the 2020 stretch, but he’s still playing solid golf and could snap back into that elite form any week.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 35/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Niemann has finished worse than T27 just once in his last seven starts and cashed in a 5th place finish in this tournament a year ago. His game meshes well with this track and there are no major complaints to be had about his form towards the end of 2020.

Carlos Ortiz | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #22 | GPP Preferred

Ortiz should probably be another trendy salary saving option this week after closing out the 2020 calendar year on back-to-back top 10s, including a win (Houston Open). He’s a little streaky but at least there’s no cut to worry about this week and you don’t exactly need a top 10 finish out of him to come away with strong value.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Patrick Reed | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.2k

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I'm rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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