Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

Tournament & Field 🏌️

The PGA is back from its brief off-season hiatus and we are set to tee off the Tour’s first 2020 event! I hope everyone has a great time bringing in the New Year and here’s to this being a prosperous year, both in DFS and elsewhere in your life. This week will take golfers out to the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. For those unaware, the only way to gain an invitation to this event is to have won a PGA tournament in the previous calendar year (hence “Tournament of Champions”). Some guys who won last year, like Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka, won’t be in attendance but the 33-man field still features a load of star power. Seven of the world’s top 15 ranked golfers will give this tourney a ‘go’ and only three guys teeing up are ranked outside the top 140 in the OWGR. This is a no cut event, so hey, a guaranteed paycheck for everyone along with a nice trip to Muai for New Year's… must be nice!

With a small field and no cut, I typically advise people to go light on their bankrolls. Many of these golfers haven’t played a competitive round in two months or more so “current form” really is more of an assumption based on how guys competed in their last significant starts. But regardless, it’s always nice to get your feet wet by playing these early season events if you are new to PGA DFS -- or if you’re a PGA veteran, you can play simply to get back into the swing of things. As a reminder, when it comes to lineup construction the best way to try to land on a unique GPP lineup will be to leave some salary on the table. Very few optimal PGA lineups end up using 96+% of the available salary, especially in smaller field events, so keep that in mind for this week.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Plantation Course is a Par 73 set-up which extends 7,452 yards. This is a unique venue because it is the only Par 73 course on Tour (all others are between a Par 70 and Par 72). This course can be affected pretty dramatically by winds due to its open links style layout, but it has still routinely produced winning scores into the 20+ under range and scores have even hit 30-under on multiple occasions. With that said, this place has undergone some pretty significant renovations since the 2019 Sentry TOC and is expected to provide a tougher test for golfers this go ‘round. If you’re truly interested in a detailed hole-by-hole breakdown of the changes, click here to give them a read. We’ll have to see how golfers handle the renovations before knowing for sure just how different the entire course plays but for now we can make educated guesses. The fairways should be very easy to hit (70+% fairway accuracy on average), allowing for guys with longer drives and elite off the tee play to gain an advantage. The course will also play considerably shorter than the near 7,500 yard distance it has on paper due to many severe elevation changes which have helped to produce such low scores I the past. The Bermuda greens here are larger than average but will still require precision shots, especially if heavier winds come into play (see weather breakdown below). Overall, I believe we’ll still see quite a bit of birdies drop and the picturesque Hawaiian views you’ll see on television this week are essentially unrivaled by any other course on Tour. This should be a fun one, so let’s get it going!

Weather ⛅

Without a cut to speak of, every golfer competing this week is guaranteed four full rounds of action (barring an injury or DQ) so weather isn’t as much of a concern but it’s still worth going over. In typical Hawaii fashion, there will be plenty of sun and temps will pretty consistently remain in the 70s. But the real concern here, as in most all courses, is wind. It looks like the opening round on Thursday will be fairly benign with winds starting off around 10 mph in the morning and increasing up to around 15 mph later in the day. Those wind speeds should be pretty manageable for any professional golfer. However, things will get more challenging over the final three rounds with sustained winds mostly hovering around 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Golfers with the earlier tee times on Thursday may have the slightest of advantages but overall I wouldn’t really let the weather factor much (if at all) into my decision making this week.

As always, a link to the forecast will be attached to the image below. Feel free to check the most up-to-date forecast as we get closer to this event teeing off (Thursday @ 2:00 pm ET).

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 20%

3. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 15%

5. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.7k

Vegas Odds: 5/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

It’s tough to weigh course history too much this week, not only because of all of the recent renovations but also because not very many golfers in this field have more than one year’s worth of experience here, if any. However, I feel like JT has to be given some edge on this course. He has played here four times while finishing 3rd last season and winning in 2017. Prior to the break, his form was in tip-top shape as well. Across his last ten worldwide starts, Thomas has finished no worse than T17 and he has posted four top 5s across his last six events with two wins to boot (The CJ Cup and BMW Championship)! There’s not much to fault him on the stat sheet either. He ranks 11th in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: App, 1st in P5 BoB%, 12th in Driving Distance, and 4th in P4 AVG. He’ll be a tough man to fade this week.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k

Vegas Odds: 11/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4

Another high-end golfer to target this week has to be Cantlay. At a certain point last season, Cantlay was a much better bet to make a top 10 than he was to miss a cut which, in mostly full 140+ man fields, is extremely impressive. He was simply a top 10 machine for much of the 2019 calendar year. He had a pretty ugly 28th place finish to end last season in the TOUR Championship and opened the 2019-20 season with an equally ugly T40 at the Safeway Open. However, he flashed the type of game we expect out of him when he landed a solo 2nd place finish at the Shriners Open so hopefully that is the Cantlay we get this week. Statistically, he outshines just about anyone in terms of rating out well across the board. He ranks 6th in SG: OTT, 6th in SG: App, 6th in P5 BoB%, 6th in Driving Distance, and 3rd in P4 AVG. Cantlay does have one previous start here as well (15th in 2018) so a little familiarity with the general course layout can’t hurt.

Mid-Priced Targets

Cameron Champ | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k

Vegas Odds: 35/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8

On a course where driving distance and off the tee play could prove to be crucial, how could you not give some credence to Cam Champ? The guy drives it a country mile, averaging 332.2 yards/drive through five events this season, and he is just one of the ultimate early season wild cards to roll out in GPPs. Also, as a plus, Champ turned in a solid 11th place finish in his Sentry TOC debut here last year. Overall, he ranks 2nd in SG: OTT, 29th in SG: App, 7th in P5 BoB%, 2nd in Driving Distance, and 29th in P4 AVG. Typically consistency with his short game and his irons are what hold him back, which is why he isn’t much of a cash game play most weeks. But he has already notched a win this season (Safeway Open) and even though he is a true boom/bust type golfer and DFS option, Champ could very well explode out of the gate on this particular course this week.

Brendon Todd | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.3k

Vegas Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #15

If you’re eyeballing guys with strong current form in the most recent PGA events, Todd is hard to miss. In his last three starts he has finished 4th (RSM Classic), 1st (Mayakoba Golf Classic), and 1st (Bermuda Championship). He really did just have a helluva Fall swing to close things out before the break. Now, whether this wild form continues into 2020 remains to be seen, but he is worth consideration until he’s proven to be untrustworthy. In his lone start at The Plantation Course back in 2015, Todd landed an 8th place finish. A similar result would obviously be pretty stellar value.

Low-Priced Targets

Ryan Palmer | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k

Vegas Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7

Palmer wrapped up his Fall swing with a pair of back-to-back top 15 finishes and has some decent course experience as well, having played The Plantation Course three times in his career. We’ll have to see if he can carry over his solid form from the Fall into this week but among the cheaper guys in the field, he certainly stands out quite a bit on the stat sheet. He ranks 17th in SG: OTT, 7th in SG: App, 18th in P5 BoB%, 7th in Driving Distance, and 7th in P4 AVG. If he can manage to not implode on the greens, his lengthy driver and steady irons could carry him to another solid result in Maui.

Lanto Griffin | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k

Vegas Odds: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: #9

If you read these PGA newsletters between September and November, prior to the break, you probably remember a lot of Lanto Griffin mentions. That’s because he opened the season with five straight top 20 finishes (including a win) before tailing off with a T76 and a missed cut in his previous two events. Maybe his form really did crash back down to earth but if he does manage to reattain that gusto he showed in September and October, he’ll no doubt wind up being an excellent value this week. On the stat sheet he ranks 16th in SG: OTT, 15th in SG: App, 2nd in P5 BoB%, 3rd in Driving Distance, and 2nd in P4 AVG. This week we’ll get a better idea about whether or not that stretch of top 20 finishes was simply an anomaly or if Griffin is actually planning on making some legitimate moves up the Official World Golf Rankings this season.

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat, so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.