By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads out to Las Vegas, Nevada for the Shriners Children’s Open, hosted at TPC Summerlin. Following the Sanderson Farms Championship, which featured a fairly weak field top to bottom, we’ll get some legitimate star power back into the mix for this event. Within this 144-player field, eleven of the world’s top 25 ranked golfers will be in attendance, along with exactly half of the world's top 100. The week will be headlined by golfers such as Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer, Paul Casey, Viktor Hovland, and many other players that even casual golf fans should be familiar with. The usual 36-hole cut rule will once again remain in effect as the top 65 (including ties) will move on to play the weekend!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Summerlin has been the host course for this tournament every fall since 1992 so there will be strong course history to rely upon this week. The course itself is a Par 71 setup that will play between 7,200 and 7,300 yards. Typically, TPC Summerlin will be one of the easiest courses played all season on the PGA Tour and, weather permitting, a winning score will likely delve into the 20-under range as it has in eight of the last ten years -- last season saw three golfers (M. Laird, A. Cook, M. Wolff) enter a playoff following a 72-hole score of 23-under. Last year’s event also featured the lowest cut line in PGA history at 6-under par.

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 48th, 39th, 38th, 10th*, 40th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -6, -4, -2, +2*, -2

*2017 was a major outlier here due to extremely windy conditions which put a cap on scoring.

TPC Summerlin plays at an average elevation of 2,700 feet. The higher altitude will even the playing field a bit off of the tee as the shorter hitters won’t be outclassed as easily by their ‘bomber’ counterparts. There should be plenty of eagle opportunities as all three of the Par 5s can be reachable in two shots for essentially the entire field. Out of eleven Par 4s, only two measure over 450 yards. The fairways here are generous and even when golfers miss the short grass, the rough isn’t overly troublesome – the same cannot be said about the native areas, however. The bentgrass greens also aren’t overly small and will play at moderate and consistent speeds – around 11 in the stimpmeter. In general, I’ll be targeting guys who possess a strong approach game, have a high birdie or better percentage, and are reliable Par 4 scorers who can separate themselves from the pack. Golfers who roll it well on bentgrass greens will be at a notable advantage as well. It’s a fairly straightforward DFS approach considering the relative ease of TPC Summerlin and its propensity to turn into a birdie-fest. Now let’s get into the weather, key stats to consider, and some golfers to target at each price range!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: It’s Vegas in October so temperatures will still touch 80 degrees at times but, for the most part, golfers will enjoy pleasant temps in the 70s along with no real rain concerns.

Wind: It's worth keeping an eye on the wind speeds this week, especially for the opening two rounds prior to the cut. Currently, it looks as if both mornings will be calm on Thursday and Friday before 10-15 mph sustained winds come into play in the afternoon with stronger gusts, particularly on Friday.

Verdict: The forecast can always change between now and Thursday/Friday, but at the moment neither wave looks to have a noticeably significant tee time advantage -- at least nothing worth impacting DFS decision making. (Though, if you're someone who likes to make first round leader bets, I would definitely target the guys who tee off early tomorrow)

As usual, you can find the most up-to-date forecast by clicking the image below!

Shriners Children's Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 30%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 10%

5. Stroke Gained: Putting - Bentgrass | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Sam Burns | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #9

For various reasons, I’m usually not one to go after a guy who is coming off of a win in the previous week. But what was remarkable about Burns’ victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship was the fact that he lost two strokes putting to the field, yet he was still able to pull out the win thanks to an extraordinary tee to green play. Winning a PGA tournament with a negative putter is almost unheard of but Burns came away with +14.81 SG: T2G -- gaining nearly six more strokes T2G than the next closest golfer in the field! Now Burns is typically a solid putter and ranks 23rd in the field in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). If he carries that insane T2G prowess into this week… I don’t want to call for a back-to-back win scenario, but it’s certainly a possibility.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #5

On a track like TPC Summerlin that doesn’t really require much power off of the tee in order to set up shorter iron approach shots, Ancer is often going to be a great course fit. He may only have made 2-of-5 cuts here, but both of his made cuts were 4th place finishes (2020 & 2018) -- and he’s been playing the best golf of his career over the last couple of years. When he teed up at this tournament in 2019, at the time Ancer was the 41st ranked player in the world. Now, after a brilliant two years of golf since he has risen all the way up to No. 12 in the world. He makes as much sense as anyone out of this top tier and I’d be willing to throw an outright bet on his 25/1 odds as well.

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Overall Model Rank: #3

Webb deserves to be listed as arguably the top “course horse” in the field this week. He’s made 9-of-10 cuts at TPC Summerlin, including eight straight where he has finished inside the top 20 seven times, highlighted by a win (2013) and two additional top 10s (2019 & 2014). Simpson is coming off of a solid yet, by his standards, forgettable 2020-21 PGA season. However, he posted some promising, more Webb-like results down the stretch and always carries a ton of cut equity. I can’t find any real reason to avoid him this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Patrick Reed | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #34

Overall Model Rank: #20

It’s important to remember that Reed is coming off of an ankle injury as well as a battle with bilateral pneumonia which required a brief hospital stay back in late August. Despite not being able to compete in the first two playoff events at the end of last season, he still qualified for the TOUR Championship a little over a month ago and was able to play all four rounds in his return to action. Reed didn’t look great, necessarily, but he also was not bad by any means and even shot a round three 66 (-4). If he’s closer to 100% this week, these are some intriguing salaries pinned on the No. 21 ranked golfer in the world.

Cameron Tringale | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #7

Tringale is just the definition of “solid.” He doesn’t often come through with flashy high-end finishes, but he simply grinds out solid result after solid result. Tringale has finished worse than T-26 only once in his previous seven starts and he returns to TPC Summerlin where he recorded a T-19 in 2020. He checks in 32nd or better in all five of my key stats for the week and ranks inside the top 15 in P4 AVG, BoB%, and SG: Putting (Bentgrass). Tringale is likely in line for another strong top 25 finish out in Vegas.

Mito Pereira | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #23

Mito makes yet another Weekly Drive appearance! Sure, the T-31 from last week isn’t anything to write home about (well… he did still cash a $42,700 check, so nothing to scoff at) but a lackluster putter was really the only thing that kept him from another great finish after losing -4.70 strokes with the flat stick. Even if he shot even to the field with his putter, Pereira would have pushed for his fifth top 10 finish in his last seven worldwide events (six PGA starts, one Olympic start). Pereira has been crushing it in the ball striking department and he is typically going to roll it more consistently with the putter than he did last week. Now that Pereira is priced back down in the mid-range, he’ll once again be a go-to DFS target, albeit a popular one.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Ian Poulter | DK: $7k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP / DK Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #96

Overall Model Rank: #88

Poulter checks in as the 52nd most expensive golfer on DraftKings, 33rd on FanDuel. For that reason, he clearly carries more appeal on DK, but it isn’t as if he is inappropriately priced on FD either -- he’s simply not quite as strong of a value. Poulter missed the cut in his most recent start over on the EURO Tour (BMW Championship) but he has made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour, including 11 of his last 12 with plenty of strong finishes mixed in. Poulter may not jump off the page as far as long-term metrics go and this will also be his second ever start at TPC Summerlin -- the first in many years. But with Poulter's accurate playstyle combined with his strong around the green play and consistency on the greens (ranks 9th in SG: Putting - Bentgrass), I’d be pretty shocked to see him have issues taming this course.

Hayden Buckley | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #70

Buckley will carry some very appealing GPP potential out of the value pricing tier. He gained strokes in every major category last week (OTT, App, ATG, Putting) last week en route to an impressive T-4 finish. He missed the cut two weeks prior at the Fortinet Championship. And, before that, he posted finishes of T-4, MC, T-7, T-26, T-2 across five Korn Ferry Tour events. If he continues to stay hot with the putter (+5.08 SG: Putting last week), then Buckley could easily outperform these salaries.

Mark Hubbard | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 200/1 | Cash & GPP / DK Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #74

Overall Model Rank: #44

Hubbard is looking like an excellent piece to “stars and scrubs” builds as he, for some reason, sits only $100/$800 above the stone-cold minimum this week. Not only has Hubbard made the cut in his previous six PGA events, but he also has only one MC in his last 12 PGA events. It’s also not as if he’s barely scraping by either, considering he has posted three top 20s in his last five. Now, Hubbard does have two missed cuts over on the Korn Ferry Tour which are mixed in between his the aforementioned successful PGA run, which is a concern. But you need so little to get value out of him here -- if rolling him out, even in cash, allows me to get three or four $9k+ (DK) / $10k+ (FD) golfers within the same lineup, then I’m partial towards taking the slight risk on Hubbard.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Viktor Hovland | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.9k | GPP Preferred

Will Zalatoris | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.2k | Cash & GPP

Louis Oosthuizen | DKL $9.9k, FD: $11.4k | GPP Preferred

Si Woo Kim | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k | Cash & GPP

Mid-Priced:

Matthew Wolff | DK: $8.2k, FD:$9.9k | GPP Preferred

Aaron Wise | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.9k | GPP Preferred

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k | Cash & GPP

Talor Gooch | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k | Cash & GPP

Low-Priced/Punts:

Sahith Theegala | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.4k | GPP Preferred / FD Preferred

Roger Sloan | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k | GPP Preferred

Nick Watney | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.4k | Cash & GPP

Matt Kuchar | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k | GPP Preferred

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!