By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads over to Las Vegas, Nevada for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, hosted at TPC Summerlin. Most top golfers opted to take a little time off following the U.S. Open three weeks ago but we’ll get a bit of star power back into the mix for this event. Ten of the world’s top 25 ranked golfers will be in attendance, along with nearly half of the top 100 within this 144-player field. Do remember that one of the top players in the field, Tony Finau, was forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test (replaced by Bronson Burgoon). The usual 36-hole cut rule will once again remain in effect as the top 65 (including ties) will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Summerlin has been the host course for this tournament every fall since 1992. The course itself is a Par 71 set-up that will play between 7,200 and 7,300 yards. Typically, TPC Summerlin will be one of the easiest courses played all season and, weather permitting, a winning score will likely delve well into the 20-under range as it has in eight of the last ten years. TPC Summerlin plays at an average elevation of 2,700 feet. The higher altitude will allow for guys who aren’t necessarily long off of the tee to not be outclassed as easily by their “bomber” counterparts. There should be plenty of eagle opportunities as all three of the Par 5s can be reachable in two shots for essentially the entire field. Out of eleven Par 4s, just three measure over 450 yards. The fairways here are generous and even when golfers miss the short grass, the rough isn’t overly troublesome -- the same cannot be said about the native areas, however. The bentgrass greens also aren’t too small and will play at moderate speeds -- around 11 in the stimpmeter. Overall, I’ll be targeting guys who possess a strong approach game, have a high birdie or better percentage, and are reliable Par 4 scorers who can separate themselves from the pack. It’s a fairly straightforward DFS approach considering the relative ease of TPC Summerlin and its propensity to turn into a birdie-fest. Now let’s get into the weather, key stats to consider, and some of my favorite guys to target at each price range this week!

Weather ⛅

As you can see below, the majority of this tournament will be played in little to no wind, with the exception potentially coming on Saturday afternoon (worth keeping in mind for single round slates). This is Vegas, so even in the fall the arid conditions will bring warm temps and basically no threat of rain. While winds may pick up slightly later in the opening round, it’s not significant enough for me to base any DFS decisions around, so I’d say neither wave has any real advantage this week. As usual, try to run a final weather check on Wednesday night.

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 30%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 10%

5. Stroke Gained: Putting - Bentgrass | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Webb Simpson | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 8th SG: App | 1st BoB% | 1st P4 AVG | 5th P5 AVG | 10th SG: P - Bentgrass

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

When it comes to finding a golfer that has a strong combination of current form, course history, and course fit, you can probably tag Simpson as essentially the best bet on the board. His T8 at the U.S. Open marked his fourth consecutive finish of T12 or better. Simpson has also made the weekend cut at TPC Summerlin in 8-of-9 attempts while snagging four top 10s, including a win here back in 2014. The only courses I really handicap Simpson on are supremely long set-ups, but with the elevation combined with the fairly average length which TPC Summerlin has to begin with, Simpson should be in line for a ton of birdie opportunities.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 5th SG: App | 13th BoB% | 9th P4 AVG | 6th P5 AVG | 57th SG: P - Bentgrass

I’m not going too wild with my high-end guys, as both Simpson and Matsuyama should be reliable guys to spend up on in all formats this week and rank out as the top two golfers in my personal custom player model. While Hideki doesn’t have extensive course history like Webb, he has shown up well in each of the two appearances at TPC Summerlin: T16 in 2019 & T10 in 2015. The current form is rock solid as well. Matsuyama has just one missed cut in his last nine starts, which came at the Memorial when course conditions were extremely tough and unpredictable. In his other eight recent starts, he has finished no worse than T29 and he’s entering the week with his best run in that stretch: T17, T15, and T3. The major knock on Matsuyama is almost always the putter. He ranks 116th in the field in strokes gained putting (overall). However, his best putting splits (by far) come on bentgrass greens. Matsuyama’s tee to green game is often so good that he just needs to finish average/above average in relation to the field in strokes gained putting to have a chance at a very strong result.

Mid-Priced Targets

Cameron Davis | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 47th SG: App | 6th BoB% | 34th P4 AVG | 12th P5 AVG | 74th SG: P - Bentgrass

Davis was a popular DFS option last week and after carding a T6. I see that being the case once again. Davis gained strokes in every major ‘strokes gained’ tee to green category last week (off the tee, approach, around the green) as well as +3.88 SG: Putting. Davis has now made six straight cuts on the PGA Tour, including three top 15 finishes. In his lone start at TPC Summerlin a couple years ago, he landed a 28th place result and he’ll look to improve upon that this week. I mentioned this with Davis for the last tournament, but considering he’ll be a very popular choice once again, decide whether or not you’re going to go considerably underweight or overweight on your exposure to him in GPPs (or fade entirely). For PGA DFS, I don’t personally put as much stock into projected ownership in general, but it does make sense to “take a stand” on certain golfers.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.2k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #16 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 96th SG: App | 9th BoB% | 27th P4 AVG | 40th P5 AVG | 6th SG: P - Bentgrass

DMC makes another appearance! You can think of McCarthy as the polar opposite kinda player to a golfer like Hideki Matsuyama. McCarthy has an elite putter, possibly the best flat stick on the entire PGA Tour, but his tee to green play is usually very suspect. However, any time DMC just slightly out-gains the field in average SG: T2G, his putter can carry him to a strong finish. Last week, McCarthy gained an extremely solid +5.55 SG: T2G, which ranked 11th on the week. His putter remained consistently strong (+4.33 SG: P) and he was able to cruise to a T6 result. A similar tee to green week like that and McCarthy is likely looking at another top 10. He has made just 2-of-4 cuts at TPC Summerlin but his last two years here at this course have produced 9th and 15th place finishes. I wouldn’t normally trust a golfer in cash who is so reliant on his putter, but McCarthy has consistently been making cuts for a while now (one MC in his last nine starts dating back to mid-July) and his all-around great performance from last week has me putting a good amount of trust in him… hopefully not to a fault.

Low-Priced Targets

Brendan Steele | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.9k

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 13th SG: App | 42nd BoB% | 11th P4 AVG | 92nd P5 AVG | 60th SG: P - Bentgrass

I’m a bit surprised that Steele isn’t a few hundred dollars more expensive considering his relative consistency over the last few months as well as his solid course history. Steele has made eight consecutive cuts entering this week, with an average finish of 31st in that span. He has also made 6-of-8 cuts at TPC Summerlin and punched a T29 here last year. Steele’s game is anchored by strong irons with solid distance off of the tee and he leads the field in greens hit in regulation percentage. Barring a complete meltdown with the putter, I imagine Steele should carry a great amount of cut equity with some pretty decent upside as well.

MJ Daffue | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.9k

Vegas: 250/1 | CMR: #30 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 21st SG: App | 2nd BoB% | 41st P4 AVG | 1st P5 AVG | 1st SG: P - Bentgrass

In a good but not overly strong field, there are a multitude of intriguing ‘punt’ options down near the bottom of DFS pricing this week. Daffue is one of those golfers who stands out after coming off of a T12 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship where he led the field in strokes gained: approach. Daffue’s overall stats should be taken with a grain of salt considering he has far fewer registered PGA rounds in comparison to most of the field. But if those irons stay hot in back-to-back weeks and he continues to trend on Bentgrass greens, then he can easily add on another sneaky in another top 25 finish to his resume.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.2k

Vegas: 8/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Preferred

Considering DeChambeau has finished 4th, 1st, and 7th here at TPC Summerlin over the last three years while also coming off of an impressive win at the U.S. Open, he pretty much has to be in play for GPPs by default. For me, personally, I do think I will be going underweight on him in comparison to the field.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.1k

Vegas: 25/1 | CMR: #9 | GPP Preferred

Wolff finished runner-up to the aforementioned DeChambaeu at the U.S. Open and even at 21-years-old he has quickly established himself as a threat to win on nearly any given week. His elite driver and carefree approach to the game can certainly help him dominate an easy course like TPC Summerlin. Wolff finished T18 here last year in his Shriners Hospitals for Children Open debut.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.3k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #51 | Cash & GPP

I just realized I’ve unintentionally listed the first, second, and third place finishers from the U.S. Open but regardless, Oosty enters off of that impressive recent performance as well as a rock-solid stretch to end the 2019-20 PGA season. He has made eight consecutive cuts with three top 15s within his last five starts. This will be Oosthuizen’s first appearance at TPC Summerlin but I’m willing to trust the recent form even though he withdrew from last week’s tournament due to undisclosed reasons (I assume it was to just take an additional week off for rest).

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #52 | GPP Preferred

Zalatoris burned me last week as my “one and done” selection as well as an anchor in many of my DFS lineups. That’s just how golf goes and we have to remember Zalatoris is a 24-year-old golfer who isn’t extremely experienced at the PGA level. Regardless, he has immense talent and upside so I’ll take a shot on him in some GPPs this week.

Kristoffer Ventura | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

It was another excellent result for Venture last week (T6). He is another golfer whose game is anchored by the putter but he did finish just above the field average on SG: approach last week. That’s all he’ll need to do this week to pay off these low salaries. Finished 18th here last season.

Francesco Molinari | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k

Vegas: 125/1 | CMR: #107 | GPP Only

It’s odd to see these basement-level salaries attached to Molinari’s name but this is also the first competitive appearance he’ll be making since February and it wasn’t exactly like his game was in the best form around that time anyway. But this is a guy who won the Open Championship just two years ago and was ranked among the world’s best. We’ll see where his game is at after the long hiatus. Finished 4th here in his lone appearance in 2017.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

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That will do it for our Shriners Hospitals for Children Open preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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