Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview 🏌️

The PGA Tour heads over to Las Vegas, Nevada for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, hosted at TPC Summerlin. This is easily our most talented field to this point in the young season. Several stud golfers will be making their 2019-20 PGA season debuts, including the likes of world number one Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, and Gary Woodland. In total, 19 of the world’s top 50 golfers will be in attendance. There will be 140+ golfers in the field with a traditional 36-hole cut rule in place (top 65 and ties make the weekend).

TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 set-up that will play between 7,200 and 7,300 yards. Typically, this course will be one of the easiest courses played all season and, weather permitting, a winning score will likely delve well into the 20-under range. TPC Summerlin plays at an average elevation of 2,700 feet. The high altitude will allow for guys who aren’t necessarily long off the tee to excel just as easily as their “bomber” counterparts. There should be plenty of eagle opportunities as all three of the Par 5s can be reachable in two shots for essentially the entire field. And out of 11 Par 4s, just three measure over 450 yards. The fairways here are generous and even when they’re missed, the rough isn’t overly troublesome. The bentgrass greens also aren’t too small don't play too fast. Overall, I’ll be targeting guys who possess a strong approach game, have a high birdie or better percentage and are reliable Par 4 scorers who can separate themselves from the pack. Now let’s get into the weather, key stats to consider, and some of my favorite guys to target at each price range this week!

Weather ⛅

Poor weather is really the only significant course defense TPC Summerlin has. This week, the conditions appear to be pristine golf weather. Over the first two rounds, winds will be very calm in the mornings (<5 mph) with sustained winds picking up to about 10 mph in the afternoons with no significant gusts. Nothing to be concerned about for professional golfers. There will also be plenty of sun with temps in the 70s and 80s and no rain in sight. To keep it brief, weather should have no impact on your decision making this week. But, as always, be sure to check the outlook once we get closer to Thursday morning. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

> Emphases on Proximity 125-150 Yards | 5%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 10%

5. Stroke Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.8k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas: 11/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

We’ll see how much Cantlay’s relatively disappointing T40 at last week’s Safeway Open affects his ownership heading into this week. Cantlay has only competed at TPC Summerlin twice but he has dominated in each trip. He won in 2017 and then came back last year to card a runner-up finish. Expect his 17:12 BoB:Bogey ratio from the Safeway Open to improve considerably in Vegas. He ranks 12th in SG: App, 6th in BoB%, 15th in P4 AVG, 9th in P5 AVG, and 13th in SG: OTT. If you have a couple value guys that you feel comfortable with, I wouldn’t have any issues starting my cash game builds with Cantlay. Otherwise, he makes for an ideal tournament option who can easily turn it on and cash in on his 11/1 odds.

Adam Scott | DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas: 18:1 | CMR: #15

Scott led through 18 holes at the Safeway Open last week after carding an opening round 65 (-7). He didn’t exactly capitalize on the hot start when he went on to shoot rounds of 73, 73, and 68. Still, he came away with a strong T17 finish. I still love the top 5 upside Scott has this week despite having zero course history. Scott lost several strokes off the tee last week but was one of the best golfers in the field on approach and around the greens. I believe he’s much better suited to make a run on this extremely easy course with wider fairways and easier hole layouts. He ranks 5th in SG: App, 7th in BoB%, 44th in P4 AVG, 2nd in P5 AVG, and 47th in SG: OTT. His short irons are also some of the best in the field and he ranks 8th in Proximity 125-150 yards -- which is going to be a very common approach distance at TPC Summerlin. Combined with how reachable the three Par 5s are, I’d expect several excellent eagle opportunities throughout the week for Scott. He’ll be a core play for me in all formats.

Mid-Priced Targets

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #23

Scheffler took some time off last week at the Safeway Open but he’s coming in with excellent form after landing a T7 and T16 to open the PGA season. Prior to that, he was dominating the Korn Ferry Tour where his most recent results were T7, T11, and a win. Scheffler will also be making his debut at TPC Summerlin but he’s absolutely set up to continue his recent success. He ranks 2nd in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 2nd in P4 AVG, 70th in P5 AVG, and 6th in SG: OTT. The Proximity from 125-150 yards is also a sweet spot for him and he ranks 3rd in the field in that department. Considering Scheffler has fewer measured PGA rounds played than much of the field, his stats come off a bit inflated. However, this guy really is just flat out good so I’m not weighing that too heavily against him. I’ll be hard-pressed not to add him in as another core play this week.

Aaron Wise | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #15

Wise hasn’t busted out with a great finish in a while but he has consistently been making it to the weekend after not missing a cut in six starts dating back the the US Open in mid-June. He has found some pretty strong success at TPC Summerlin, having made 3/3 cuts with finishes of 10th (2016), 32nd (2017), and 15th (2018). Wise is very ‘hit or miss’ statistically, ranking 85th in SG: App, 5th in BoB%, 98th in P4 AVG, 17th in P5 AVG, and 12th in SG: OTT. Despite his struggling iron play he, somewhat incredibly, hits more greens in regulation than just about the entire field. So, if Wise can get those irons and wedges going, he could be in for a huge week. Otherwise, I’d expect him to at least make the weekend and contend for a top 40 finish. As such, I prefer him a bit more for cash games at the moment. It is worth noting, however, that his “Vegas value” is some of the best in the entire field. For his salaries, his 66/1 odds to win are very, very strong.

Low-Priced Targets

Bud Cauley | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #14

Cauley had a rough final round last week when a +4 score on Sunday knocked him out from top 15 contention down to a T44 result. He has made his last seven cuts and despite making the weekend once in three starts at TPC Summerlin, Cauley’s lone made cut here was a T10 finish last season. He won’t blow you away with his metrics, as he ranks 53rd in SG: App, 31st in BoB%, 50th in P4 AVG, 30th in P5 AVG, and 97th in SG: OTT. What he lacks in strong play off the tee and with his approaches, he can make up for with one of the better short games in the field (4th in SG: ATG, 15th in Scrambling, and 22nd in Sand Save %). While he may not be an ideal course fit, the current form is solid and the 10th place finish last season is even more encouraging.

Mark Hubbard | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Vegas: 200/1 | CMR: #33

Hubbard already has two top 15 finishes in three starts this season and checks in as one of the more intriguing golfers in the value tier this week. He’s definitely a ‘GPP Only’ play for me, as he’s doing most of his damage with the flat stick (2nd in SG: Putting). Otherwise, his tee to green game leaves a lot to be desired. Overall, he ranks 40th in SG: App, 24th in BoB%, 12th in P4 AVG, 28th in P5 AVG, and 117th in SG: OTT. Hubbard has some experience at TPC Summerlin but has only made the weekend once in three starts (T35 in 2015). This is his first start in Vegas since 2016 so we’ll see if he can show off his newly gained upside for the third time in four weeks.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced Targets

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 20/1 | CMR: #3

Great course history (7/8 cuts made, three top 5s, one win) and ended last season in excellent form. I would fully expect for Simpson to pick up right where he left off when he makes his 2019-20 PGA debut.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.9k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 30/1 | CMR: #22

If you happen to catch these newsletters, you know how much I love me some Morikawa. I’m on board with him once again after he looked great to open his PGA season with a T10 last week. His irons are some of the purest in the field -- and in the world, for that matter.

Mid-Priced Targets

Dylan Frittelli | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.1k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #40

I’m not quite ready to get on board with Frittelli as a cash play -- I’d like to see a bit more long term consistency with these sorts of prices. But after opening the year with a T6 and T7 (along with a T5, T12, and MC on the EURO Tour), you cannot ignore the upside. His ball striking has been excellent lately so, even without any course history, I’m all on board with grabbing some Frittelli shares in tournaments.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

GPP Preferred | Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #24

Can’t wait to see how far Wolff can stripe it on some of these holes at a higher altitude course. He brings one of the biggest drivers to Vegas this week and had flashed some extremely impressive irons in several events last season -- most notably during his winning performance at the 3M Open, which had one of the more exciting finishes of the season.

Low-Priced Targets

Lanto Griffin | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Cash & GPP | Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #18

What an excellent start to the season Griffin has had: 13th, T11, and T17. He has a 52:16 BoB:Bogey ratio through those 12 rounds. Much of that has been by way of a hot putter and not so much on tee to green play but, for the prices, I believe I’ll take my chances on him once more in all formats.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7k, FD: $8.9k

GPP Only | 100/1 | CMR: #36

McCarthy is ultra reliant on his putter and short game so he is almost always a tournament only play. For his salaries, McCarthy’s upside is great. He has made seven of his last nine cuts with five top 25 finishes in that span. He’ll be worth a look once again this week at another fairly easy course.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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