Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2018 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open ⛳️

After its three week Asian stint, the PGA Tour returns to the United States for The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open held at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada. Premiere players like Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth and Webb Simpson look to make their 2018-19 season debuts this week. Unlike the past few events, this week we will have a near full field with about 140 golfers competing. Thus, we will have a 36-hole cut after Friday’s round that will see the top 70 (and ties) move on to play the weekend. This should change your approach to a reasonable degree, particularly in cash, where it will be very important to put yourself in a position to have a strong chance at pushing “6/6” line-ups through the cut-line while maintaining some high finishing position equity. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I much prefer events with cuts as there can be more of an edge to be had with some solid research.

TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 set-up that will play between 7,200 and 7,300 yards. Traditionally, this course will be one of the easiest courses played all season and, weather permitting, a winning score will likely delve well into the 20-under range. TPC Summerlin plays at an average elevation of 2,700 feet. The high altitude makes this very much a second-shot golf course and will allow for guys who aren’t necessarily long off the tee to excel just as easily as their "bomber" counterparts. There should be plenty of eagle opportunities as all three of the Par 5’s can be reachable in two shots for essentially the entire field. And out of 11 Par 4’s, just three measure over 450 yards. The fairways here are generous and even when they’re missed, the rough isn’t overly troublesome. The bentgrass greens also aren’t too small or play too fast. Overall, I’ll be targeting guys who possess a strong approach game, have a high birdie or better percentage and are reliable Par 4 scorers. Now let’s get into the weather, key stats to consider and some of my favorite guys to target at each price range this week!

Weather ⛅

With the return of a 36-hole cut this week, keeping an eye on weather comes back into play. For anyone unaware, an advantage in DFS golf can sometimes be had by rostering guys who are set to tee off in more favorable weather conditions in the first two rounds. Golfers who tee off Thursday morning will draw a Friday afternoon start (AM/PM wave) while the other half of the field starts Thursday afternoon and Friday morning (PM/AM wave).

That said, this week the weather looks pretty tame for the first two rounds. Temperatures will stay in the 60's and 70's throughout the day with no rain in sight and, most importantly, winds should not be expected to even crack 10 mph. Weather should thus have zero impact on who you choose to roster in your lineups this week. Remember this is being written on Tuesday morning so be sure to double-check the forecast for Las Vegas, NV closer to Thursday morning for any changes!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 30%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg.) | 25%

4. Par 5 Average (P5 Avg.) | 10%

5. Small emphasis on Proximity: 125-150 yards | 5%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Tony Finau (DK: $11.3k | FD: $12k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Let’s get Finau a second consecutive appearance in the Weekly Drive, shall we? Tony was so close to pulling off the victory last week in China but ultimately fell short to Xander Schauffele in a playoff. He’s just one of those guys who always seems to be right on the cusp but he truly has all the tools to win any given week. He now has six starts in a row with a finish of no worse than T15, five being top-10 finishes. Finau has played The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (“The Shriners” for short henceforth) the past four years and has made the cut each year with an average finish of 20th -- a 7th place finish coming in 2014. He sets up well on paper, ranking 24th in the field in SG: App, 39th in Prox. 125-150 yards, 36th in P4 Avg., 9th in P5 Avg., and 3rd in BoB%. Of course, he’s going to cost you a pretty penny if you hope to get him in your lineups. So while he is a great cash play, you may be sacrificing too much salary and safety at other spots to snag him since he is the 2nd and 3rd priciest option depending on what site you play. As of late though, he is like the Todd Gurley of golf in terms of having a very high floor that you feel confident about to go along with a high ceiling week in and week out. Unsurprisingly, he’ll give you some sizable win equity as he is tied as the odds on favorite to win alongside Rickie Fowler at 11:1.

Gary Woodland (DK: $9.7k | FD: $11.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

All the signs pointing towards Woodland are just too hard to ignore right now. He’s been on an absolute tear since the PGA Championship in early August. He’s improved his finishing position in his last six starts, going T48, T24, T12, T11, T5 and most recently a solo 2nd place finish in The CJ Cup a couple weeks back. He and Finau have arguably the best recent form out of any other golfers this week. Statistically, he’s hitting every key stat that I’m looking at closely. He’s 18th in SG: App, 28th in Prox. 125-150 yards, 4th in P4 Avg., 8th in P5 Avg., and 2nd in BoB%. In his debut in The Shriners last year, he came away with a very solid T18 finish. He has sizable winning equity with the 6th best odds in the field at 18:1. Things could change, but right now, I’ll be looking to strike while the iron is hot and, considering the weaker field, Woodland will likely be the first guy I plug into my cash lineup and will certainly be a core GPP piece as well.

Mid-Range Targets

Cameron Champ (DK: $9.2k | FD: $9.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

When you get past the first few guys and happen to notice a golfer is priced very similar on FanDuel as they are on DraftKings, then you should pay attention. Champ is a near lock in all formats on FanDuel at his price there but is priced more appropriately on DraftKings, and is perhaps closer in line to a GPP play over cash. If you read these PGA Newsletters regularly, I have a feeling you’ll see a ton of Cam Champ touting in the future. He’s the PGA Tour rookie I am most excited to watch this season and I know I’m not alone in that regard. Champ lived up to his namesake last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he came away with the victory with a score of 21-under and a winning margin of four strokes. I know driving distance isn’t anything I’m weighing heavily this week but this 23-year-old can completely demolish a golf ball and, pulling over stats from the Web.com Tour, he averages over 331 yards per drive… 331 yards! With mostly his Web.com Tour stats mixed in, he rates in 34th in SG: App, 44th in Prox. 125-150 yards, 1st in P4 Avg., 5th in P5 Avg., and 1st in BoB%. This is a dude that can score, no doubt -- worth every bit of consideration in a weaker field that only features nine of the world’s top 50 golfers. His 33:1 odds to win check in as the 9th best in the field.

Si Woo Kim (DK: $7.5k | FD: $9.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This is another play where the pricing discrepancy is pretty far off, and in Si Woo Kim’s case, he’s a better bargain on DraftKings and seemingly cash viable. I’ve been writing these PGA newsletters for many months now and I can’t recall even suggesting Kim in even the “Quick Hits” section simply due to how volatile he can be. However, he has caught on with a bit of form to open up the new season with finishes of T10 at the CIMB Classic and T23 at The CJ Cup. Statistically, he hits some of my key stats nicely but not others. He checks in at 84th in the field in SG: App, 47th in Prox. 125-150 yards, 53rd in P4 Avg., 13th in P5 Avg., and 6th in BoB%. In his only appearance at TPC Summerlin in 2015 he came away with a 25th place finish. In an event that features a lot of unproven young talent at the PGA level, some older and perhaps “washed up” golfers and some other relative unknowns, Kim makes sense in this spot. His 50:1 odds are some of the best you will find at this (DraftKings) salary.

Low Priced Targets

Ryan Blaum (DK: $7.2k | FD: $8.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Blaum has turned in a couple of respectable finishes to start his second season as a PGA Tour professional. He finished T20 at last week's Sanderson Farms Championship and T33 three weeks prior at the Safeway Open. He also has solid results in his two career starts at TPC Summerlin, finishing T20 last year and T31 in 2016. To go along with the good form and some nice recent course history, his birdie or better percentage ranks 17th in the field this week. He should be able to offer up enough scoring upside to make the weekend cut with a good shot at a top-25 finish. Blaum may be an unexciting play on paper but he’s one guy that makes sense in the lower tier of pricing.

Alex Cejka (DK: $6.9k | FD: $7.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Cejka is a complete course history target, or “course horse” as the term goes. Some guys just click when they get on a track they like and for the past few years it would certainly seem that Cejka has an eye for Las Vegas. Starting from last season dating back to 2014, Cejka has finishes at TPC Summerlin of T2, T27, T2, and T18 and lifetime he has made 7 cuts in 10 starts here. His 80:1 odds when compared to his DFS salaries are basically unparalleled on both sites in terms of “Vegas Value” -- a nifty tool to use on LineStar's "advanced sorters". He’s not a complete course history dart throw, as he has only one missed cut in his last ten worldwide starts, so there is some added optimism to be had if you’re looking to take a shot on him this week. Though if he simply makes it to the weekend he essentially returns value automatically, no matter where he finishes.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

High Priced

- Rickie Fowler (DK: $11.4k | $12.2k) | GPP Only | A combination of this being his season debut and not playing the course since 2015 (T25 finish) makes him a GPP only play for me but he is clearly among a small group of players in this field that are certified “elite”.

- Webb Simpson (DK: $10.3k | FD: $11.7k) | Cash & GPP | TPC Summerlin is very much a “Webb Simpson” course and his results here speak for themselves. In seven starts at TPC Summerlin: Three top-10s including a win in 2013.

Mid Priced

- Andrew Putnam (DK: $8.9k | FD: $10.6k) | Cash & GPP | Will likely go overlooked because he’s normally not in this price range and on the surface he isn’t an exciting player. However, he’s all-around solid and in good form. Only one missed cut in his last 19 starts.

UPDATE: Putnam has withdrawn from this week's tournament! At similar price points Ryan Moore and Austin Cook make for solid cash viable pivots. Joaquin Niemann and Scott Piercy look good for GPPs.

- Sam Burns (DK: $7.6k | FD: $8.9k) | GPP Only | Another exciting rookie to watch this season coming off of a T3 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship and placed a T20 finish in his Shriners debut last year. Can score quickly but as an aggressive player he can find himself writing in a double bogey on the scorecard here and there, which can kill a round or a shot at making the cut. Very boom/bust but 55:1 odds show his winning upside.

Low Priced

- Dylan Meyer (DK: $7.3k | FD: $7.4k) | GPP Only | Absolute criminally low price on FanDuel. A young golfer with great irons and hits a ton of greens in regulation. No course history here but he’s coming off of a T7 last week.

- Corey Conners (DK: $6.6k | FD: $8.8k) | GPP Only | Borderline cash play as he is a great tee-to-green player but just has a very unreliable putter. He did card a career best 2nd place finish last week behind the aforementioned Cameron Champ. He made the cut line last year in his first appearance at TPC Summerlin.

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That'll wrap things up for this week! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck!