By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour digs its toes back into the Hawaiian sands for one more week as golfers get set to tee it up for the Sony Open which will be held at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI. This event often feels like the one which really gets the wheels on the new PGA season rolling. Unlike last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, which featured a small 42-player field, the Sony Open will be a full field tournament with 144 players on site. We will also have a traditional cut rule back in place – so the top 65 players (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. The field for the Sony Open may not be as concentrated talent-wise as last week, however, 35 of the world’s top 100 golfers are still throwing their hat into the ring this week. If you are new to PGA DFS or looking to shake off some rust, these sort of medium strength events are very important to follow along with. Getting familiar with the guys who aren’t necessarily household names can take you a long way throughout the season!

The Course Preview ⛳

Waialae Country Club is a Par 70 set-up that extends just over 7,000 yards. This is one of the most established venues on the PGA Tour as it has hosted this event every year since 1965. As a result, Waialae CC is one of the more traditional courses on the entire circuit. This track features narrow fairways which are some of the toughest to hit on TOUR (average accuracy is around 52%). However the rough isn’t extremely penalizing to play out of, so we will typically see golfers accomplish a higher-than-average greens in regulation percentage. With several doglegged holes and those tighter landing zones, this course is generally more about strategic ball placement with sharp iron play and not so much about pure power and prowess off the tee. On approach shots, golfers will be targeting average sized Bermudagrass greens that don’t have very much slope or undulation.

The wind is really the primary course defense here but as long as those winds are manageable (which it’s looking like they will be this week), we’ll see plenty of birdies fall throughout this tournament. As a Par 70, there are just two Par 5s on the course but those two holes are extremely easy and reachable in two shots by nearly the entire field, so we’ll likely see a plethora of eagles drop in as well. In good conditions, winning scores can often be expected to surpass the 20-under range. This should be a great week filled with some primetime golf and excellent views to admire on TV, so let’s dig into it!

Weather ⛅

Course conditions were wet and windy last year which led to a winning score of just 11-under par. The forecast can always change over the next couple of days, but it would seem like golfers should be playing all four rounds in pretty favorable conditions. Plenty of sunshine with comfortable Hawaiian winter temps in the 70s all week. As far as wind goes, Thursday is the day to track. Sustained winds are expected to be around 15 mph in the morning hours on Thursday with slightly stronger gusts. Winds calm down a bit on Thursday evening so we could realistically see a slight wave advantage developing for the PM/AM wave -- especially since very calm conditions are expected on Friday morning.

Verdict: As of now, I wouldn’t base my DFS strategy solely around this potential wave advantage. Professional golfers can certainly handle 15 mph winds but, to state the obvious, calmer conditions are preferred. However, if you’re on the fence between two golfers and one tees off in the AM/PM wave while the other draws the PM/AM start times, I’d side with the latter player.

Sony Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 25%

4. Good Drive % | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 3rd SG: App | 61st P4 AVG | 17th BoB% | 8th Good Drive %

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

This week’s course (Waialae CC) and the Plantation Course at Kapalua (from last week’s Sentry TOC) are near polar opposites in terms of course style and layout. After struggling down the stretch of 2020, it was nice to see Morikawa card a strong 7th place finish last week and I believe Waialae CC suits his game even better. A disappointing even par final round this past Sunday kept Morikawa from contending for the win, but if we look at his rounds one thru three data, he ranked first in the field in strokes gained tee to green, and third in strokes gained on approach. Also remember that last week’s field, while small, was absolutely stacked with talent. If Morikawa’s irons are becoming more trusty (like we’re accustomed to seeing) and less rusty, then I believe we can roll him out once again in DFS lineups this week.

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 27th SG: App | 25th P4 AVG | 10th BoB% | 35th Good Drive %

Sungjae’s +9.51 strokes gained tee to green last week was good enough to lead the entire field. Unfortunately, he lost -3.25 strokes putting, which knocked him out of contention. Still, it’s hard to be disappointed in a 5th place finish and we should expect better things out of his putter this week. He ranks 15th in the field in strokes gained putting (Bermuda), so if he keeps up the elite tee to green play and bounced back with the flat stick, I'm should be teeing up among the final groups on Sunday. He’s played here each of the last two years and has come away with respectable 21st and 16th place finishes.

Mid-Priced Targets

Charles Howell III | DK: $8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #48 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 114th SG: App | 35th P4 AVG | 86th BoB% | 101st Good Drive %

The key stats for Chucky Three Sticks are pretty lackluster but the big appeal for him this week is simple: course history. CH3 has made 16/16 cuts at Waialae CC including nine top 10s and six top 5s with an average finish of 19th. It is tough to put into words just how difficult it is to be so consistent at one place as Howell is here. And while the stats aren’t popping off the page, Howell’s recent finishes are decent enough. He wasn’t in the field last week, but prior to the holiday break, Howell has finishes of T23, T30, T46, and T34. Not spectacular results but his DFS salaries aren’t outrageous and we just can’t ignore the success he’s had at this venue over the years. He’s arguably the top “course horse” within the field.

Patton Kizzire | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #37 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 95th SG: App | 56th P4 AVG | 15th BoB% | 80th Good Drive %

Kizzire isn’t a golfer I typically look to target and he definitely won’t go anywhere near my cash lineup. But prior to the break, he carded 10th and 11th place finishes within his past three starts has six straight made cuts and has been rolling a red hot putter. He also won this event back in 2018, followed that up with a 13th place finish in 2019, but missed the cut altogether a season ago. He’s a volatile option this week but worthy of some leverage exposure in GPPs as I doubt he goes above 10% ownership.

Low-Priced Targets

James Hahn | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #17 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 51st SG: App | 11th P4 AVG | 20th BoB% | 2nd Good Drive %

Hahn is an interesting golfer to consider for this tournament. He has solid course history, making 6-of-8 cuts at Waialae CC with a runner-up finish in 2018. But those two missed cuts here have come in the last two seasons. However, prior to a poor showing and missed cut in his last start at the RSM Classic in November, Hahn had finishes of T50 (meh), T5 (!), T6 (!), and T9 (!). His game does line up well with this course, evidenced by his key stat rankings. But he can be fairly volatile so while it is tempting to consider him a cash-viable option, I’d likely side with keeping him as a GPP target for now.

Doug Ghim | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #35 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 15th SG: App | 27th P4 AVG | 22nd BoB% | 24th Good Drive %

Ghim stands out as a strong value candidate in all formats this week while checking in as the 57th most expensive golfer on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Ghim enjoyed a really strong Fall swing and has made six of his last eight cuts including FIVE top 25 finishes in that stretch. If you can get a top 25 out of him this week, that’s excellent value. He’s only played here once, which was last season and missed the cut, but his form is much better entering the 2021 version of the Sony Open and the weather will be much more cooperative this go ‘round as well. Just by looking at his key stats, you can safely assume that he has the kind of game to do well here.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Webb Simpson | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12k

Odds: 11/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

It may be tough to fit Webb in cash but he is easily the man to beat this week. His game stacks up well with Waialae CC. He has made all ten cuts here with three top 10s to his name, including 3rd and 4th place finishes the last two starts here (2020 & 2018).

Daniel Berger | DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Berger is just such a solid golfer these days and is rarely going to burn you, though the upside is hit or miss at times. He’s made all five of his cuts at Waialae CC and when the putter heats up, he’s an absolute birdie machine.

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Grillo has really solid form entering the PGA break which was capped off with a top 10 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in early December. Hasn’t missed a cut in four starts at Waialae CC and stands out as a very appealing mid-range option, particularly for cash games.

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #19 | GPP Preferred

Munoz fire a poor 2-over opening round last week but went on to finish second in the field in total strokes gained over the final three rounds at the Sentry TOC. While he can be streaky, if he carries that momentum into this week, a top 10 could be in the cards.

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

NeSmith has three finishes of 17th or better in his past four starts and ranks no worse than 18th in any four of the key stats. He doesn’t have a ton of PGA experience yet, so it is a little tough to trust his recent stretch of success, but in a medium strength field I believe we can give him a shot.

Bo Hoag | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #61 | GPP Only

I wouldn’t mess around with too many guys below this range but Hoag did cap off the 2020 calendar year with T30 (RSM) and T23 (Mayakoba) results and landed a 9th place finish at the Sony Open a year ago. Proceed with caution but he isn’t the worst guy to consider punting in GPPs.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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