Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | The Sony Open ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

The 2019 Sony Open ⛳️

Welcome back to the first 2019 edition of the LineStar Weekly Drive! The winter break for the PGA ended last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions as Xander Schauffele ultimately edged out Gary Woodland for the win by shooting a masterful 11-under final round. This week the PGA Tour remains in Hawaii (woo, primetime golf!) and we’ll see a more traditional full field event consisting of 144 players and the top 70 (plus ties) will go on to make the weekend after 36 holes. The Sony Open is often host to one of the weaker fields of the season, however there’s a bit more star power in the mix this go ‘round with 20 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world competing.

Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii will be the course to tackle this week and it has hosted this event every year since 1965. Waialae CC is a Par 70 track that reaches just over 7,000 yards. The fairways are actually some of the toughest to hit on Tour (average of 52%) however the rough isn’t terribly penalizing and golfers tend to scramble well and hit a higher than average amount of greens in regulation. The greens are of average size and feature Bermuda grass. This is definitely a tournament that could be classified as a “birdiefest” and we can expect a winning score in the vicinity of 20-under par. That being the case, I’ll be looking heavily at birdie or better percentage. It may also come as no surprise, but players that do well here excel on their approach shots, so strokes gained on approach will also be a key metric I’ll look towards. Now, let’s get a quick outlook at the weather, several key stats to consider and the players I’ll be looking to target this week!

Weather ⛅

For PGA weather for events with a 36-hole cut, we’re always looking primarily at Thursday and Friday to see if there’s an advantage for the golfers teeing off Thursday morning and Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or Thursday afternoon and Friday morning (PM/AM wave). This write up is being done on Tuesday, so remember to check the forecast closer to lock for any changes.

Overall outlook: The weather should have no impact on who you’re selecting this week. Winds should barely crack double digit speeds in either of the first two rounds and temperatures will consistently be in the 70's. This should be some very comfortable golfing weather for these guys out in Honolulu… must be nice!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 30%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg.) | 20%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

5. Driving Accuracy | 5%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas (DK: $11.4k | FD: $12.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Aside from a missed cut here in 2016, JT has fared quite well in his other three trips to Waialae CC with a 14th place finish last year, a 6th place in 2015 and a win in 2017. He comes in with excellent form after a 3rd place finish in last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions and we should fully expect Thomas to rack up another strong performance this week. He’s 5th in the field in SG: App, 3rd in BoB%, 5th in P4 Avg., and 13th in Bogey Avoidance. The only key stat that he doesn’t necessarily pop off at is his driving accuracy (ranked 81st in field). However, as mentioned above, the rough here isn’t too treacherous and a world class golfer like Thomas should manage to avoid posting big numbers when missing the short stuff. As the 6.5:1 odds on favorite to win this week you can bank on Thomas being perhaps the highest owned player in any format. Completely fading him would be ill-advised and if you can find the right value elsewhere, I think he’s a slam dunk option.

Gary Woodland (DK: $10.8k | FD: $12k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Woodland has been playing some incredible golf for the past several months and has racked up an abundance of high finishes, which of course includes his runner-up finish last week in a very talented field. He’s also had excellent finishes at Waialae CC in four consecutive years with three finishes of 7th or better and a 13th place finish. Statistically, he checks in at 12th in SG: App, 5th in BoB%, 20th in P4 Average, 52nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 44th in Driving Accuracy. When considering course history and current form to go along with his solid metrics for this course, Woodland tops out as the number one ranked player in my personal model for this week and boasts 14:1 odds.

Mid-Priced Targets

Kyle Stanley (DK: $8.7k | FD: $9.9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Stanley’s overall game with his accuracy hitting fairways and consistency on approach shots makes him a very nice course fit for Waialae CC -- as illustrated by his 6/6 made cuts here. His better finishes at this event came more recently as well, with a 10th place finish last year and a 13th place finish in 2016. Stanley ranks 32nd in SG: App, 81st in BoB%, 52nd in P4 Avg., 32nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 6th in Driving Accuracy. Those statistics don’t necessarily do him justice for this week in my opinion, especially given his course history. In comparison to other golfers priced around him, Stanley’s 33:1 odds represents some solid value.

Scott Piercy (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Piercy had some strong outings in the swing season that included three top-10 results. In his ten starts at this course, he’s made the cut seven times, including four straight with a runner-up finish in 2015 and six top-25's in total. His overall ball striking has been in great form and the 40-year-old certainly represents a lot of value at his current DFS salaries. He ranks 27th in SG: App, 29th in BoB%, 16th in P4 Avg., 41st in Bogey Avoidance and 17th in Driving Accuracy. He’s the 4th overall player in my model and should certainly be considered as a nice mid-tier target in all formats.

Low-Priced Targets

Joel Dahmen (DK: $7.2k | FD: $9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

If you read these newsletters last season, you may recall Dahmen popping up as a low-priced target pretty often. In his rookie season he was quite consistent, making 19 of 28 cuts and he’s gone a perfect 6/6 on cuts made to start this season. He also made the cut in his debut appearance at Waialae CC last year. He may not be a major threat to win (125:1 odds) or even card a top-10 finish but if you’re looking to take someone like Justin Thomas or Gary Woodland, especially in cash games, you’ll likely need one or two guys priced in the vicinity of Dahmen who can simply bring you some cheap cut equity. For his price, Dahmen brings very respectable metrics to the table. He ranks 36th in SG: App, 51st in BoB%, 31st in P4 Avg., 18th in Bogey Avoidance, and 12th in Driving Accuracy. There’s some more higher risk/higher reward type guys in Dahmen’s price range you could opt to target for GPPs but everything points towards Dahmen being a trustworthy cash target.

Ollie Schniederjans (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Ollie may not be off to the hottest of starts this season (3/5 cuts made with a T57 being his best finish) but he did card a 7th place finish in 2018 and a 27th place finish in 2017. Schniederjans also recently made a switch to a new caddie, Damon Green, who held the bag for Zach Johnson for nearly 15 years. Green brings a ton of course experience to the table and it’s noteworthy that Zach Johnson has made 11/12 cuts at Waialae CC. I’ll usually throw out the statistics on one of the guys I write up, usually in this low-salaried range, and just try to ride the coattails of some narratives. Ollie is that guy this week, as he ranks well into the bottom half of the field in nearly every key statistic I’m focusing on. But Schniederjans is a former No. 1 ranked amateur golfer and has shown glimpses of success in his young career. Very interested in him as a cheap GPP dart throw this week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $11.1k | FD: $12.4k) | GPP Only | Definitely has all the tools to win this week but lack of course history makes me a little hesitant to trust in cash with just one 49th place finish in 2017.

- Jordan Spieth (DK: $10.3k | FD: $11.4k) | GPP Only | Spieth makes his first start of the new year and to be quite honest, I have no idea how he will fare. But he’s always worth some GPP consideration because when he’s on his game he can make some incredible shots.

Mid-Priced

- Charles Howell III (DK: $8.9k | FD: $10.4k) | Cash & GPP | Closed out 2018 with a win at the RSM Classic and had a solid T14 last week. Oh… and CH3 is a flawless 17 for 17 cuts made on this course. You think he likes Honolulu?

- Chez Reavie (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9.4k) | Cash & GPP | Four straight made cuts at Waialae CC including back-to-back top-20’s in this last two years. Has also made all five cuts this season. Very comfortable with Reavie in all formats.

Low-Priced

- Anirban Lahiri (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.7k) | GPP Only | Missed the cut in his only trip here in 2017 but I like giving Lahiri some tournament exposure on any shorter course that has tight fairways and requires precise irons. He also comes in with a T10 in November’s Mayakoba Golf Classic.

- Mackenzie Hughes (DK: $6k | FD: $7.5k) | GPP Only | More of a DraftKings only GPP punt play, as he is strangely the stone minimum salary and would allow for some very top-heavy “stars and scrubs” lineup construction. He’s 51st in SG: Approach and did have a 27th place finish in his first start here in 2017.

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That will do it for our Sony Open preview and the first 2019 edition of LineStar’s Weekly Drive!  As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck!