Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

Tournament & Field ⛳️

The PGA Tour digs its toes back into the Hawaiian sands for one more week as golfers get set to tee it up for the Sony Open which will be held at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI. Perhaps it is just me, but this event often feels like the one which really gets the wheels on the PGA season rolling. Unlike last week, this will be a full field tournament with 144 players on site and we will also have a traditional cut rule in place -- so the top 65 (and ties) players on the leaderboard after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. The field for the Sony Open may not be as concentrated talent-wise as last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, however 30 of the world’s top 100 golfers are still throwing their hat in the ring this week. If you are new to PGA DFS or looking to shake some rust off, these sort of medium strength events are very important to follow along with. Getting familiar with the guys who aren’t necessarily household names can take you a long way throughout the season!

The Course Preview ⛳

Waialae Country Club is a Par 70 set-up which extends just over 7,000 yards. This is one of the most long-standing courses on TOUR as it has hosted this event every year since 1965. As a result, Waialae CC is one of the more traditional courses on the entire PGA Tour circuit. This track features narrow fairways which are some of the toughest to hit on TOUR (average accuracy is around 52%). However the rough isn’t extremely penalizing, so we will typically see golfers accomplish a higher-than-average greens in regulation percentage. With several doglegged holes and those tighter landing zones, this course is generally more about strategic ball placement with sharp iron play and not so much about pure power and prowess off the tee. Winning scores can often be expected to surpass the 20-under range, as it has in four of the last five years. Also, as a Par 70, there are just two Par 5 holes on this course but we’ll still likely see a ton of eagles drop here. The 56 eagles scored at Waialae CC last year ranked fourth among all courses for the season. This should be a great week filled with some primetime golf and excellent views to admire on TV (weather permitting), so let’s dig into it!

Weather ⛅

Oh boy, things may get a bit dicey this week. The current forecast has 30+ mph sustained winds for both Thursday and Friday with gusts near 40 mph. Winds should calm down over the weekend (mostly <15 mph sustained wind speeds) but rain throughout this tournament is a legitimate concern. Friday and Saturday are currently projected to be the wettest days this week, so while that could allow for softer course conditions (possibly easier scoring), there is no telling if stoppages in play will occur. Right now I couldn’t definitively give either wave an advantage so I just advise keeping a close eye on the forecast as we get closer to first tee.

Perhaps an intriguing GPP strategy could be to make a lineup with players only in the AM/PM wave. If Friday’s PM golfers get rained out, forcing a Saturday second round finish, those golfers could be able to play in calmer overall winds prior to the 36-hole cut. Just a thought. Things may not play out that way but it’s certainly a possibility with this current forecast. Alternatively it could backfire and play wouldn’t be suspended on Friday afternoon resulting in those guys playing in pretty miserable golf conditions. Just kind of a mess to predict all around so I would keep any weather related lineup decisions reserved to GPPs (for now).

As usual, the forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

4. Good Drive % | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Webb Simpson | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.5k

Vegas Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

In terms of consistency and cut equity, Simpson is about as good as it gets. He has just one missed cut in his last 33 starts dating back to mid-2018 and he has thrived at Waialae CC, making 9/9 cuts with an average finish of 25th. He has also come out of the gates for the 2019-20 season in great form with finishes of T7 and 2nd in his first two events. Statistically, he shines as well. In the field, Webb ranks 5th in SG: App, 3rd in P4 AVG, 3rd in BoB%, and 17th in Good Drive %. I would consider him in all formats, though in GPP builds I would more often than not try to find the extra salary to spend up on Justin Thomas.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.9k

Vegas Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you’re going after a more balanced build, Morikawa feels like an excellent golfer to set as one of your foundation guys. Even though he has zero course history at Waialae CC, this is the sort of old school course where Morikawa’s world class iron play can shine. He also came away with a solid T7 finish in Maui last week, which is a positive sign heading into this event. Seven of the last eight Sony Open winners had played in the Tournament of Champions the week prior, so it isn’t much of a stretch to give all of those guys in this week’s field a slight boost. As an additional credit to Morikawa, since turning pro he hasn’t missed a single cut across 14 starts while carding five top 10 results, including a win at the Barracuda Championship. He is dominant in all four of my key stats for the week as well, ranking 3rd in SG: App, 4th in P4 AVG, 2nd in BoB%, and 5th in Good Drive %. My boy Morikawa will probably be a popular play but he is definitely one of the guys I want to go overweight on versus the field this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Alex Noren | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k

Vegas Odds: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #70

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Due to the fact that Noren has made 13 of his last 14 cuts worldwide (and 20 of his last 22), he’ll be a fringe cash play for me but I’m primarily looking at him as a GPP leverage play. With the other options around him, I sincerely doubt his ownership percentage gets near double-digits and, admittedly, it may be because he is a tad overpriced. But also, I see his ownership staying down because I don’t believe too many newer PGA fans are very familiar with Noren. He typically sticks to the EURO Tour and hasn’t made major waves in very many PGA events in the last couple of years. Another negative: zero course history. He also doesn’t shine one the stat sheet: 85th in SG: App, 68th in P4 AVG, 74th in BoB%, and 80th in Good Drive %. However, it does seem as though Noren’s form is trending back in the right direction after landing back-to-back top 15 finishes in his two 2019-20 PGA season events. Most recently, during his run to a T10 at the RSM Classic, Noren gained strokes in every major category except for SG: OTT, which for this week isn’t all that important. In recent seasons, Noren was often a perennial “all format” play, as he possessed dominant irons, an excellent short game, and top 10 upside week in and week out. Perhaps he is not quite back to that same form just yet but there are signs pointing towards him being on his way and it’d be nice to catch the train early!

Brian Stuard | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #9

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Stuard makes for a nice, affordable course horse target who also happened to be in nice form the last time we saw him in action. Stuard has made 6/7 cuts at Waialae CC with four finishes of T8 or better (including T8 and T4 in the last two years). He has also made his previous seven PGA cuts which include five finishes of T28 or better. Statistically, he ranks 27th in SG: App, 23rd in P4 AVG, 81st in BoB%, and 19th in Good Drive %. Nothing about Stuard’s game is overly exciting but with his recent run of solid success and strong course history, he has to be one of the better options to consider in this price range.

Low-Priced Targets

Brian Gay | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.9k

Vegas Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #32

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

In DFS, Brian Gay is often one of those “ho hum” grinders that you throw into cash lineups whenever his form is on point and you just hope he makes the cut. For these prices, that seems about how I’d utilize him this week after a strong Fall swing where Gay made 6/7 cuts with three top 15 finishes. Gay also has extensive course history, having made 12/13 cuts at Waialae CC with a couple top 10s. On paper, he ranks 98th in SG: App, 40th in P4 AVG, 55th in BoB%, and 34th in Good Drive %. Assuming he can get his irons back on track, I’d expect him to turn in a solid week here on a course where he has proven many times that his lack of distance off the tee isn’t all too penalizing. 

Bud Cauley | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k

Vegas Odds: 125/1 | Custom Model Rank: #45

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

After a scary car accident in June 2018 left him with a collapsed lung, five broken ribs, and a fractured left leg, Cauley flashed signs of being back to full health when we last saw him compete in October. Cauley’s Fall swing was highlighted by a T9 at the Houston Open and a T14 at the Greenbrier. In total, he has made seven of his last nine cuts (one MC technically being a withdrawal). Assuming he's back to (or very near) 100% health, he represents what is likely one of the larger talent-to-price discrepancies in PGA DFS this week. On paper he ranks 43rd in SG: App, 47th in P4 AVG, 28th in BoB%, and 87th in Good Drive %. Amazing metrics? Not really. And his course history also leaves plenty to be desired (1/4 cuts made at Waialae CC) but when this guy’s game is on, he can churn out a top 20 result with relative ease. For these salaries, I love the upside, however I’m likely reserving my Cauley shares to GPPs.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $12k, FD: $12.3k

Vegas: 5/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Plain and simple, JT is ‘unfadeable’ with the way he is playing. Six top 10s in his last seven starts with three wins? That’s like a prime Tiger era kinda run. He also won at Waialae CC in 2017 and has a few other strong top 20 finishes as well. Anyone who follows golf probably doesn’t need much convincing on this dude.

Charles Howell III | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.7k

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #18 | Cash & GPP

This time of year is usually a great time to target Chucky Three Sticks. He loves his Hawaii/California swings and has made 15 of his last 15 cuts here at Waialae with six top 5s and three additional top 10s!

Corey Conners | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

I’m expecting plenty of ownership to fall Conners’ way this week and for good reason. He finished 3rd at this venue last year and is currently riding a five event streak finishing T20 or better. If he manages to putt decent enough, his elite T2G play could easily carry him to a top five finish, even a win.

Lanto Griffin | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k

Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

I feel pretty solid about going back to the well with Lanto this week. He got a nice warmup start in Maui last week and managed a 13th place finish. Given, in a field of 34 golfers that isn’t extremely remarkable but it was a very strong field and if it wasn’t for a few struggles on the greens (lost nearly two strokes putting to the field) his week would’ve been better. His prices have risen but I believe there’s still meat on the bone here.

Xinjun Zhang | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k

Vegas: 150/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Preferred

Zhang was a Weekly Drive favorite in the Fall swing when he came over to the PGA Tour after making a ton of noise on the Korn Ferry Tour. He had a couple weeks where he popped off for top 10 results and ultimately made 6/8 cuts. There is a ton of upside here for a cheap price but I’d likely reserve him for GPPs.

Mark Hubbard | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k

Vegas: 200/1 | CMR: #11 | GPP Preferred

Perhaps in a pinch you could consider Hubbard as a fringe cash play since his form looked solid in the Fall. He made 7/8 cuts to start the season and 2/3 cuts at Waialae CC. He also ranks 31st or better in three of my four key stats for the week (SG: App, P4 AVG, BoB%). I’d like to see the solid play continue out of him in the 2020 calendar year before I really considering him a strong cash candidate. So for now he remains more of an ideal target for stars & scrub builds.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat, so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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