By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour digs its toes back into the Hawaiian sands for a second consecutive week as golfers get set to tee it up for the Sony Open which will be held at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI. This event often feels like the one which really gets the wheels rolling on the new PGA season. Unlike last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, which featured a small 38-player field, the Sony Open will be a full field tournament with 144 players on site. The traditional cut rule is also back in place – so the top 65 players (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. The field for the Sony Open may not be as concentrated talent-wise as last week, however, 36 of the world’s top 100 golfers are still throwing their hat into the ring this week. If you are new to PGA DFS or you’re looking to shake off some rust, these sort of medium strength events are very important to follow along with. Getting familiar with the guys who aren’t necessarily household names can go a long way throughout the season!

The Course Preview ⛳

Waialae Country Club is a Par 70 set-up that extends just barely over 7,000 yards. This is one of the most established venues on the PGA Tour as it has hosted this event every year since 1965. Given its PGA Tour history which stretches back nearly six decades, Waialae CC is one of the more traditional courses on the entire circuit. This track features narrow fairways which can be some of the toughest to hit on TOUR. Average accuracy here is usually just above 50%, however, last year golfers hit the fairways at a 63% clip. The rough isn’t extremely penalizing to play out of, so we will typically see golfers accomplish a higher-than-average greens in regulation percentage even if they’re routinely missing fairways. With several doglegged holes and those tighter optimal landing zones, this course is generally more about strategic ball placement with sharp iron play and not so much about pure power and prowess off the tee. The average driving distance in this tournament last season was 293.2 yards. On approach shots, golfers will be targeting average-sized Bermuda grass greens that don’t have very much slope or undulation.

The wind is really the primary course defense here but as long as those winds are manageable (which it’s looking like they will be this week), we’ll see plenty of birdies fall throughout this tournament. As a Par 70, there are only two Par 5s on the course. However, those two holes are extremely easy and are reachable in two shots by essentially the entire field, so we’ll likely see a plethora of eagles drop in this week as well. In good conditions, a winning score can be expected to surpass the 20-under threshold as has been the case in six of the last ten years. This should be a great week filled with some primetime golf and excellent views to admire on TV, so let’s dig into it!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: No rain in sight, plenty of sunshine, and temps in the mid-70s all week. Ya gotta love mid-January weather in Hawaii. And these guys are getting paid to be there… what a life!

Winds: Wind speeds will rarely even hit double digits.

Verdict: There is no wave advantage to be had. Conditions are pretty much ideal. On a course where wind can be a major defense, the lack of windy conditions should provide some fairly low scores this week.

Sony Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

5. Good Drive Percentage | 10%

6. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 10%

Sony Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 15 ranked golfers in both my key stats model (targeting the stats listed above) and overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored). The lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should be favorable DFS options this week.

Top 15 Golfers - Key Stats Only

1. Cameron Smith

2. Webb Simpson

3. Hayden Buckley

4. Russell Henley

5. Talor Gooch

6. Sungjae Im

7. Marc Leishman

8. Joel Dahmen

9. Corey Conners

10. Seamus Power

11. Hideki Matsuyama

12. Abraham Ancer

13. Chad Ramey

14. Chase Seiffert

15. Davis Riley

Top 15 Golfers - Overall Model Rank

1. Cameron Smith

2. Webb Simpson

3. Sungjae Im

4. Marc Leishman

5. Corey Conners

6. Russell Henley

7. Talor Gooch

8. Joel Dahmen

9. Hideki Matsuyama

10. Abraham Ancer

11. Seamus Power

12. Kevin Na

13. K.H. Lee

14. Matt Jones

15. Jason Kokrak

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #2

“Overall Model” Rank: #2

Simpson was a bit banged up throughout the 2020-21 season so some time off should have done him some good. If you’re a longtime PGA DFS player, you know Webb is about as rock-solid as it gets. And he is particularly reliable on shorter and more traditional-style courses, which Waialae CC fits a tee. Simpson’s last three appearances in this event resulted in finishes of T-4, 3rd, and T-4. He also hasn’t finished worse than 20th place on this course since 2012 and he’s never missed a cut here in 11 trips. Webb checks off all the “course history” boxes and he certainly passes the test on paper as well. In this field, he ranks 1st in P4 AVG, 4th in BoB%, 7th in Good Drive %, and 11th in Long Iron Accuracy. Simpson should be a perfectly fine anchor to lineups in all formats.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #12

“Overall Model” Rank: #10

Ancer stands out as a strong leverage option in the high-dollar salary range as many folks will look at that T-35 from last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions (38-player field) and choose to go elsewhere. However, even though he hasn’t necessarily found much success in his four starts on this course (two missed cuts and best finish was T-29 in 2019), Waialae CC makes for a great fit for Ancer’s game. Ancer ranks 1st in the field in Driving Accuracy, 4th in Good Drive%, 5th in P4 AVG, and 6th in BoB%. His irons could use a bit of fine tuning (82nd in SG: App) but I do expect that aspect of his game will correct itself in the not-so-distant future. Personally, I would look elsewhere in cash games, but I do believe Ancer makes for an excellent GPP target and he’ll likely check in with single-digit ownership. I’ve even seen some ‘sharps’ pick Ancer to win outright this week.

Corey Conners | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #9

“Overall Model” Rank: #5

Conners is one of the best pure ball strikers in the world and that should be on full display in Hawaii this week. He pairs solid distance and excellent accuracy off the tee with sharp iron play. The putter is the lone club that truly hinders his game but, in his three career appearances at Waialae CC, Conners has rolled it very well on these greens which have helped him notch a T-12 and T-3 in his last two Sony Opens. Conners is riding a PGA made cut streak of eight consecutive events. In that stretch, he has posted six top 25 finishes along with a 13th place finish at the men’s Olympic Golf Competition. If Conners continues to show some consistency with the flat stick, expect him to be in the mix for a podium finish come Sunday.

Mid-Priced Targets

Russell Henley | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #4

“Overall Model” Rank: #6

At any course where an elite approach game is a necessity, Henley is going to ‘pop’ in models. That’s not different this week as Henley lands as the No. 6 ranked player in my personal Sony Open model. He won this event back in 2013, though his Sony Open results since then have been a bit of a mixed bag with a T-51, T-17, MC, T-13, MC, T-66, MC, and T-11 (last season). With that in mind, there is no reason to really consider Henley’s somewhat sporadic course history as a negative. He’s also been producing excellent results going back to the 2021 US Open. Including that US Open, Henley began a ruin where he finished inside the top 25 eight times in the 12 starts since. I honestly believe Henley is around $500 too cheap on both sites and if you compare his odds to win against some guys above him, you’ll see that is a fair belief. If his putter gets going, which is the main weakness in his game, he’s a real threat for a top five finish.

Seamus Power | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #10

“Overall Model” Rank: #11

Sure, the Seamus Power play has fallen flat on a couple of occasions in recent history but, for the most part, he’s been a tremendous fantasy point per dollar play when he is priced in the mid-range or below. My general rule of thumb on DraftKings is that I want 10x value from golfers in my lineups. While that can vary week to week (e.g. 10x was nowhere close to cutting it in last week’s historically prolific birdie fest), Power has been hitting that mark at a high clip for a while now. In five of his last six starts, Power has finished no worse than T-21 and he has returned anywhere from 11x to 14.7x value (based on his $8,100 salary this week). Power’s course history is not pretty, however, he’s easily playing the best golf of his career and he is such a better golfer than he was even just a year ago. When Power teed up for the Sony Open in 2021, he was the 434th ranked golfer in the world; now, thanks to a major surge across the last several months, he ranks 63rd in the world.

Joel Dahmen | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #8

“Overall Model” Rank: #8

What PGA DFS degen doesn’t love Joel Dahmen? Outside of weak field events, the guy is always an affordable option and usually brings home a finish in the 20s or 30s with the occasional “pop” week where he’ll notch a top 10. He is 3-for-3 on made cuts at Waialae CC with his two most recent finishes being a T-12 (2020) and a T-22 (2019). Dahmen checks in inside the top 25 in my three most heavily weighted stats this week: SG: App (23rd), P4 AVG (21st), and BoB% (8th) and he provides plenty of accuracy off the tee as well (19th in Good Drive%). As the 27th most expensive golfer on both sites, Dahmen will once again make for a reliable mid-range filler.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Chad Ramey | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #13

“Overall Model” Rank: #39

Ramey is a name to watch this season. He locked up his 2021-22 PGA Tour card following an absolutely dominant season on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. He missed only one cut across his last 39 starts on the KFT, including a massive made cut streak of 26 starts! And he wasn’t just making cuts, he was posting plenty of top 10s along the way (see Ramey's results on his OWGR profile here) while ranking 2nd on the KFT in scoring average and 3rd in greens in regulation. Ramey posted a top 20 finishes in back-to-back starts on the PGA Tour earlier this season, however, he does enter this event having missed his last two PGA cuts. Ramey’s game seems to be better suited for shorter courses, like the one we have on deck this week, and he’s shown excellent stuff with his iron play (4th in SG: App). I wouldn’t rely on him in a cash lineup but there is great potential for him in tournaments.

KH Lee | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #24

“Overall Model” Rank: #13

The DFS salaries for KH Lee just seem too low for a guy who has made nine of his last 10 cuts with six top 25s in that stretch. In his Sony Open debut last year, Lee also brought in a respectable T-19 result despite not playing particularly well on approach (42nd in SG: App last year) or with his putter (39th in SG: Putting). Lee’s T-33 performance at last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions was nothing spectacular but after a slow start with rounds of 72 and 71 over the first two days, he did get hot on the weekend while shooting a 69 on Saturday and a 67 on Sunday, sinking six birdies in each of those final two rounds. If that momentum carries over into the Sony Open, he should continue to provide some juicy value as the 48th (DK) and 46th (FD) most expensive golfer on the board.

Mark Hubbard | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

“Key Stats Only” Rank: #40

“Overall Model” Rank: #36

You’re getting a super solid golfer in Mark Hubbard at basement level salaries this week. Hubbard has made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour and has only one missed cut across his last 14 PGA starts. Oddly enough, against weaker competition, Hubbard did miss a couple of cuts over on the Korn Ferry Tour back in September, but he seemed to find his footing soon after while posting a T-16, T-44, and T-22 in his three most recent starts. This course caters well to golfers who are shorter off the tee, like Hubbard (121st in Driving Distance), and he’s also a guy who can pour it in on these Par 5s as he ranks 10th in this field in both P5 AVG and P5 BoB%. Hubbard landed a T-32 finish last year at the Sony Open and I’d say a similar result would be perfectly acceptable value -- though I do believe there is upside for a sneaky top 20 finish out of Hubbs this week.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Cameron Smith | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k | GPP Preferred

Sungjae Im | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.5k | Cash & GPP

Marc Leishman | DK: $10k, FD: $11.2k | Cash & GPP

Mid-Priced:

Cam Davis | DK: $8k, FD: $10k | GPP Preferred

Charles Howell III | DK: $8k, FD: $9.4k | Cash & GPP

Aaron Rai | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k | GPP Preferred

Low-Priced:

Hudson Swafford | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k | Cash & GPP

Hayden Buckley | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k | GPP Only

Chan Kim | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | GPP Only

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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