By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

Welcome to Masters week, folks! And, man, aren’t we spoiled? Following the one-of-a-kind fall Masters back in November, we get a second dose within six months! Whether you are a brand new or super casual golf fan, a diehard PGA Tour fanatic, or consider yourself to land somewhere in between, this is a week that brings fans from all walks of life together. As many know, this is the only PGA Major which is played at the same course every year. Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia is home to some of the game’s most legendary moments and will now bring us the 85th edition of The Masters. Within this 89-player field, every single top 50 ranked golfer in the world will be in attendance, as well as about a dozen older past champions along with a few amateurs. Also, remember that this tournament has its own unique cut rule: the top 50 players (including ties) will make the 36-hole cut.

Strategy 💡

The Masters is typically a tournament where I recommend people to be a bit aggressive and take a more GPP-heavy approach (but if you're also playing cash, just target a balanced cash build). As is the case every year, this is a smaller but extremely talented field and DFS pricing is very loose. You can likely go ahead and nix the roughly dozen or so golfers who are either older past champions (who get invited by default) and the amateur players who are in the field through special qualification rules. Sure, a couple of those guys may make the weekend and possibly create some noise, but the cream rises to the top at Augusta National and you generally only want to focus on the guys who are proven and in their prime.

That will pretty much leave us with about 70 or so golfers to consider as ‘viable’ DFS plays for this week. Given that a tying score on the cut line is pretty much a guarantee, we’ll likely see about 55-60 golfers make it into the weekend. As a result, the 6/6 rate should be quite high, unless some chalky golfers miss the cut. You’ll need to figure out which guys you want to take stands on and which guys you’ll decide to lower exposure to or simply fade. In my GPP player pool, I’d either want to be way under or far above the field in terms of player exposure. For instance, if we get closer to Thursday and it seems like Dustin Johnson is going to be about 20% owned in GPPs, I would either look to go around 5-10% on him or go 35+%, depending on how I ultimately decided to construct my player pool. To each their own, of course, but this is just how I approach Masters week DFS! The important thing is to trust your process and have fun with it!

The Course Preview ⛳

Augusta National GC is a traditional Par 72, with four Par 5s and four Par 3s, which extends 7,475 yards. You could argue that “course history” matters at Augusta National as much as it does on just about any other course on Tour. This course challenges every aspect of a golfer’s game, so creativity and having the ability to deal with uncomfortable situations are the keys to a successful Masters week. With an abundance of elevation shifts and some short Par 3s, Augusta National ultimately plays even longer than its official length would indicate. Off the tee, golfers will face tree-lined fairways. The rough is very light but there are 41 bunkers and six water hazards to contend with. In place of troublesome rough, there are plenty of areas off of the fairways where soft pinestraw could force some difficult approach shots. The bentgrass greens are also some of the most challenging greens that golfers will face all season. They’re fairly large in surface area but they can run extremely fast (13.5+ on the stimpmeter) and feature some wicked undulations. Many of these greens look like upside-down bowls and have drastic slopes on the edges which can cause some frustrating runoff shots, especially if a golfer is chipping just off of the green or out of a bunker.

As I mentioned, players will have to be creative to find success here, and gaining strokes around the greens is one way to do just that. Players should also be expected to get much of their scoring done on the four Par 5s, as they are the easiest holes on the course. Where someone can truly separate themselves is through the Par 4s. Since 2012, the leader in par 4 scoring at The Masters has finished 8th or better every year and has won six times. Back in November, eventual 2020 Masters champion Dustin Johnson led the field averaging 3.88 strokes across his 40 Par 4s on the week. Finally, given the chance of rain in the forecast (which can cause the course to play even lengthier), I’m going to be targeting golfers who swing a big driver. Throw in a mix of course history and current form and let’s see if we can’t find ourselves a Masters champ!

Weather ⛅

Thursday: Very light winds in the morning increasing to about 10 mph sustained closer to noon with 15 mph gusts. Cloudy with temps mostly in the 70s.

Friday: Sustained winds only really kick up around midday but it looks like 10+ mph gusts will be in play for most of the day. Cooler temps as well, mostly in the 60s. Friday also brings in the most likely chance of rain. As long as there is no lightning associated, they can probably play through the lighter stuff.

Saturday: If the current forecast holds, anyone who plays the single round showdown slates may want to target some guys teeing off earlier in the day. Sustained winds will pick up to around 10-15 mph in the afternoon with the potential for near 30 mph gusts. Temps get back into the 70s, low 80s.

Sunday: Finally some sunshine! No real issues here. Some 15 mph gusts, but nothing that will mess up these golfers. Comfortable temps in the 70s once again.

Verdict: I’m not sure the current forecast offers up much of a wave advantage so weather should not impact your decision making this week.

Masters Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 2nd SG: App | 2nd P4 AVG | 7th SG: ATG | 31st Driv. Dist. | 11th P5 AVG

JT recently got PAID when he took down an uber talented field at The PLAYERS a month back and won a chunk of golf's largest purse. He’ll be looking to go for wins in back-to-back starts and if his historical trend at Augusta National keeps up, I’d give him a great chance to do it. In five career starts at The Masters, Thomas has improved upon his finish from the previous year each time: 39th (2016), 22nd (2017), 17th (2018), 12th (2019), and 4th (2020). He’s averaging the 2nd most fantasy points per start over his last five PGA events and that includes a missed cut at The Genesis where he only accrued 21.0 DKFP. Thomas crushes everywhere in the key stats and he’s a great foundation piece to both cash and GPP lineups.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 11/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 17th SG: App | 39th P4 AVG | 9th SG: ATG | 41st Driv. Dist. | 37th P5 AVG

Ohhhh boy… welcome to Jordan Spieth week. It has probably been years since I’ve felt confident enough in this dude to give the “cash” viable designation. However, following a win at last week’s Valero Texas Open, which was his fourth finish of 4th or better in his last six starts, I believe it’s time we look for Spieth to keep up the elite consistency. You also have to take into consideration that Spieth is tied with the second best odds to win, but he’s priced as the 9th (DK) and 10th (FD) most expensive DFS option. That sort of value doesn’t come along often in this top tier of the DFS salary hierarchy. After struggling for much of the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Spieth returns to Augusta National where he claimed the green jacket in 2015, finished runner-up in 2014 & 2016, and carded a 3rd place finish in 2018. As long as he doesn’t have any mental meltdowns, Spieth is clearly a legitimate contender this week. I’m expecting him to also be the most highly owned player on the board. What could go wrong?

Mid-Priced Targets

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #21 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 14th SG: App | 40th P4 AVG | 10th SG: ATG | 39th Driv. Dist. | 20th P5 AVG

You can question the current form all you want but when it comes to a player of Hideki Matsuyama’s caliber, you get the feeling that he is long overdue for a huge week. Hideki’s game is also very well-suited for Augusta National, anchored by his strong irons and creative play around the greens. You can also tell he is a great course fit simply by looking at his Masters results over the last six years. Since 2015, Matsuyama has posted a finish of 13th or better four times and notched a top 20 finish in 2018. Finally, I believe he just makes for a great leverage play in tournaments since he could be one of the lowest-owned golfers in this range.

Paul Casey | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 9th SG: App | 28th P4 AVG | 27th SG: ATG | 24th Driv. Dist. | 56th P5 AVG

How can we ignore Paul Casey, who has now carded four straight top 10s on the PGA Tour? If you throw in his two EURO Tour starts that came in the middle of that run, his recent form looks even more impressive -- T12 at the Saudi International and a win at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Casey has always been an excellent tee to green player, but he can look awful at times with the putter. If he can take the flat stick and roll it with some consistency, he may very well cash in on those 40/1 odds. Casey has ample experience at Augusta National, making 10-of-14 cuts with five top 10s to his name. He’s going to likely be the highest owned player out of this range, which doesn’t matter for cash, but I don’t mind lowering exposure to him in GPPs. I’d be comfortable with about 12-15% exposure because I believe his ownership will touch about 20-25% in tournaments.

Low-Priced Targets

Will Zalatoris | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #27 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 3rd SG: App | 29th P4 AVG | 37th SG: ATG | 10th Driv. Dist. | 7th P5 AVG

You do have to be careful playing first-timers at Augusta, but anyone who reads these articles regularly is aware that I love this kid’s skill set and I believe the sky is the limit for his PGA future. He has all the tools in his bag to succeed here; his irons are already world-class, he can drive the ball 320+ yards consistently, and he’s fairly proficient around the greens. The only real concerns are with the mental game (a lot of pressure at The Masters, even with a limited crowd) and whether or not he can come through with the putter. Putting well and being in a good head space mentally pretty much go hand in hand. So, if Zalatoris can come through in that regard, I believe he could easily walk away with a top 20 finish this week which would be a strong value out of this price range.

Corey Conners | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #25 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 8th SG: App | 22nd P4 AVG | 62nd SG: ATG | 51st Driv. Dist. | 32nd P5 AVG

I’m pretty shocked to see that Conners is so affordable this week. He has been the model of consistency for quite a while after missing just one cut in his last 13 starts. In that stretch, Conners amassed an incredible ten top 25 finishes, including five top 10s. One of those top 10 finishes came back in November at… The Masters! Conners may not be a bomber or electric with the putter, but he is just so, so good as a ball striker and I’d expect him to outperform these salaries by quite a bit.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 9/1 | CMR: #1 | GPP Preferred

Does anyone get the feeling that DJ is going to go under-owned this week? Maybe around 15% ownership? If that does end up appearing to be the case, I’ll gladly look to go overweight versus the field. I won’t let his last two lackluster finishes sway me off of him.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

So many people are going to just opt to take the $100-$200 in savings by dropping down to Spieth, who is priced just below Morikawa on both sites. But Morikawa has about as much upside as anyone teeing up this week and within the entire field, he is averaging the most fantasy points per start over his last five.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #8 | GPP Only

Man, it is going to take a gutsy performance out of Koepka as he is just three weeks removed from a right knee procedure, but is fully committed to playing through the discomfort. Anyone who has been playing PGA DFS for a little while will tell you “you don’t fade Brooks at a Major” because he almost always shows up and cashes in a top 10 finish, if not an outright win. He finished 7th here back in November and runner-up in 2019. If the knee cooperates, he makes for an excellent leverage play.

Cameron Smith | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #18 | Cash & GPP

Smith has made all four of his cuts at The Masters, including two top 5s within the last three years. He enters Augusta in great form, having made 10/11 cuts on the season including most recently a T17 at The PLAYERS, T11 at WGC-Workday Championship, and a solo 4th place finish at The Genesis. On top of being a preferred DFS play, the Aussie is one of my favorite outright bets this week.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #17 | GPP Preferred

Anyone else feeling a potentially big week out of Ancer? The top Mexican golfer in the world landed a T13 in his Masters debut back in November. He’s been a fairly consistent top 25 machine all season and he’s missed just two cuts in 14 starts. I’d look for him to land another top 25 this week.

Justin Rose | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #43 | GPP Only

Another golfer coming off of an injury, so I have to designate them as a “GPP Only” play due to the withdrawal/re-injury risk. If you’re someone who doesn’t pay attention to golf, you must realize that these prices for a golfer of Rose’s caliber are crazy low. Given, he has been out of form for a while and is now coming in off the injury. He also hasn’t played a round of competitive golf in over a month. But if he does manage to find the Justin Rose of old, he has experienced plenty of success here. Rose has finished T14 or better in seven of his last ten starts in Augusta, including a pair of runner-up finishes in 2015 and 2017.

Gary Woodland | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #64 | GPP Preferred

Uh-oh, did Gary find some form in Texas last week? His T6 at the Valero Texas Open was his best finish thus far in what is a very rough 2020-21 season for him. He came out of the week ranking 6th in the field in SG: Tee to Green and 2nd in SG: Around the Green. If he keeps that up, he could provide huge value.

Phil Mickelson | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #68 | GPP Only

I think LineStar user DFSkreskin put it best in Phil’s player comments: Tiger isn’t around to blindly play in a random lineup, so we’ll go with Lefty. Mickelson is clearly in the twilight of his PGA career but the three-time Masters champ has looked preeeetty good in recent weeks. Missed the cut last week but landed a T25 at The Honda Classic and a T35 at The PLAYERS -- both tough events with strong fields. All we need out of him is to make the cut… anything beyond that is a bonus. And who doesn’t like rooting for Phil?

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Jordan Spieth

I’m officially all in on “Spieth Week” and I feel like a crazy person. But... let’s go! Also, shout out to Charley Hoffman for coming through with a 2nd place finish last week. That was sorely needed for my OAD leagues.

Others to Consider: DJ, Rahm, JT, Morikawa, Koepka (big risk), Cam Smith, Paul Casey

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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