By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

Whether you are a brand new or super casual golf fan, a diehard PGA Tour fanatic, or consider yourself to land somewhere in between, this is a week that brings everyone together -- it’s Masters week! Of course, The Masters being played in November is far from the norm, but that is simply a rolling theme for just about everything this year, isn’t it? As many know, this is the only PGA Major which is played at the same course every year. Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia will bring us the 84th edition of The Masters. Within this 92 player field, nearly every single top 50 golfer in the world will be in attendance as well as about a dozen older past champions and amateurs. This tournament has its own unique cut rule: the top 50 (and ties) will make the 36-hole cut, as well as anyone who is within ten shots of the leader. However, with The Masters being moved from April to November and there is less daylight to play with, the “ten shot” part of the cut rule will NOT be in play.

DFS Strategy 💡

The Masters is typically a tournament where I recommend people to be a bit more aggressive and take a more GPP-heavy approach. As is the case every year, this is a smaller but extremely talented field with very flexible DFS pricing. You can likely go ahead and nix the roughly dozen golfers who are either older past champions (who get invited by default) or the amateur players who are in the field through special qualification rules. Sure, a couple of those guys may make the weekend and possibly make some noise, but the cream rises to the top at Augusta National and you generally only want to really focus on the guys who are proven and in their prime. That will pretty much leave us with about 80 viable golfers to really consider as ‘viable’ DFS plays for this week. Given that a tying score on the cut line is pretty much a guarantee, we’ll likely see about 55-60 golfers make it into the weekend. As a result, the 6/6 rate should be quite high, unless several chalky golfers miss the cut. You’ll need to figure out which guys you want to take stands on and which guys you’ll decide to fade. In my GPP player pool, I’d either want to be way under or far above the field in terms of player exposure. For instance, if we get closer to Thursday and it seems like Dustin Johnson is going to be about 30% owned in GPPs, I would either look to go around 10% on him or go 50+%, depending on how I ultimately decided to construct my player pool. To each their own, of course, but this is just how I approach Masters week DFS.

The Course Preview ⛳

Augusta National GC is a traditional Par 72, with four Par 5s and four Par 3s, which extends 7,475 yards. You could argue that “course history” matters at Augusta National as much as it does on just about any other course on Tour. Now, the thing is that this course may play a bit differently in November than it does in April, primarily when it comes to the rye overseed which requires frequent watering this time of year. We could likely expect the fairways to play softer and thus provide an advantage to the longer hitters aka ‘bombers’. The forecast in Augusta is also looking pretty wet this week, which may lead bombers to be even more appealing. This week, golfers have also commented on how the greens have less bite and are causing shots to roll out on them more. If you’ve ever watched The Masters, you know how tough things are around the greens under traditional circumstances. We may see some really wild events go down around those greens this year. There is also the dynamic of this being spectator-less Masters. I’ve heard some buzz about how, in years past, golfers have used fans on the course to sort of help them perceive the depth and length of their upcoming shot. Regardless of whether or not fans being in attendance factors into how the course plays, it will certainly be odd to not hear the roar of the crowd when a golfer makes a fantastic shot on any one of these iconic holes.

This course challenges every aspect of a golfer’s game, so creativity and having the ability to deal with uncomfortable situations are the keys to a successful Masters week. With an abundance of elevation shifts and some short Par 3s, Augusta National ultimately plays even longer than it’s official length would indicate. Off the tee, golfers will face tree-lined fairways. The rough is very light but there are 41 bunkers and six water hazards to contend with. In place of troublesome rough, there are plenty of areas off of the fairways where soft pinestraw could force some difficult approach shots. The bentgrass greens are also some of the most challenging greens that golfers will face all season. They’re fairly large in surface area but they can run extremely fast and have some wicked undulations. Many of these greens have drastic slopes on the edges which cause many frustrating runoff shots, especially if a golfer is chipping just off of the green or out of a bunker. As I mentioned, players will have to be creative to find success here, and gaining strokes around the greens is one way to do just that. Players should also be expected to get much of their scoring done on the four Par 5s, as they are among the easiest holes on the course. Where someone can truly separate themselves is through the Par 4s. Since 2012, the leader in Par 4 scoring at The Masters has finished 8th or better every year and has won five times. Finally, given the wet forecast and soft projected conditions, I’m going to be targeting golfers who swing a big driver. Throw in a mix of course history and current form and let’s see if we can’t find ourselves a Masters champ!

Weather ⛅

As alluded to above, we could see some wet conditions in Augusta this week -- primarily leading up to, and during, Thursday’s opening round. There may be some decently impactful gusts (15+ mph) on Thursday as well, perhaps more so in the morning. I don’t imagine we’ll see any delays since these should just be rainstorms on Thursday, which shouldn’t be accompanied by any lightning. Players would likely just play through the rain. Aside from that, there could be some wind gusts to keep an eye on for Saturday’s round as well as some slight chances for rain later in the day, but that should only be concerning for single round contests. I wouldn’t be able to comfortably claim either wave has an advantage this week but there may be a slight trend towards a PM/AM wave advantage. As always, try to run a final weather check on Wednesday evening (or very early Thursday). You’ll find the most up-to-date forecast linked to the image below.

Masters Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 11/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 6th SG: BS | 5th SG: ATG | 3rd P4 AVG | 23rd Driving Dist. | 17th P5 AVG

*Key Stat Ranks are always listed in relation to the field

So I actually think Thomas goes a bit overlooked this week. He’s still going to have some decent ownership, because it’s Justin Thomas after all, but I don’t believe his ownership comes all too close to guys like DeChambeau, Rahm, or Dustin Johnson. JT’s elite iron play (1st in the field in SG: App) and ability to gain shots around the greens are my primary draws to him. Thomas, while not the longest driver of the ball, can still bomb it when he needs to. This will be his fifth Masters appearance and he has improved upon his finish in each start here: 39th in 2016, 22nd in 2017, 17th in 2018, and 12th last year. If he can find a groove with the flat stick (63rd in SG: Putting - Bentgrass) then I believe he’s in contention to win come Sunday.

Bubba Watson | DK: $9k, FD: $10k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 3rd SG: BS | 45th SG: ATG | 28th P4 AVG | 9th Driving Dist. | 12th P5 AVG

For the uninitiated, there is such a thing as “Bubba tracks” where the man simply finds a way to (usually) put his erratic ways behind him and can consistently do well year in and year out. Augusta National definitely qualifies as a Bubba track. In 11 Masters appearances, Watson has won the green jacket twice (2012 & 2014) and has an additional top 5 finish (2018). He has missed the cut here just once and came away with a solid T12 a season ago. I don’t believe I could ever, in good conscience, recommend Bubba as a cash-safe play... you just never know if/when a disastrous hole is coming. But he heads into Masters week in great form with back-to-back top 10 finishes and he is striking the hell out of the ball. Bubba is one of the longest hitters in the field and if he can avoid having a meltdown on and around the greens, he could legitimately contend for his third green jacket.

Mid-Priced Targets

Tony Finau | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 8th SG: BS | 17th SG: ATG | 25th P4 AVG | 7th Driving Dist. | 9th P5 AVG

Finau has just two previous Masters starts to his name but what he lacks in quantity of appearances he makes up for in quality of results. In his Masters debut in 2018, Finau had an excellent T10 result and followed that up with a T5 in 2019. Many may remember that his 10th place finish in 2018 came in the same week that he dislocated his ankle while celebrating a hole-in-one at a charity match the day before the opening round. That doesn’t really mean anything now but it was a pretty cool story at the time. Finau had to spend a brief stint in the PGA’s COVID protocol but since making his return to competitive action, he has had a couple of events to shake any potential rust off (T11 at ZOZO Championship, T24 at Houston Open). Finau has five top 10 finishes within his last ten starts and his game clearly fits Augusta National, as evidenced by his results from ‘18 and ‘19. I do believe Finau will be fairly chalky this week and he has been known to be a letdown in spots that he should succeed, so I’d understand if you’d want to go underweight on him in GPPs. But if you really love him, feel free to make him one of the golfers you ‘take a stand’ on and go overweight. I’d personally project his GPP ownership to end up around 24-28%. Don’t worry about his ownership in cash lineups.

Jason Day | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #15 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 39th SG: BS | 9th SG: ATG | 47th P4 AVG | 28th Driving Dist. | 25th P5 AVG

Day is well-known to be the most injury-prone golfer among today’s group of PGA Tour regulars. If you can stomach the fact that Day could get hurt and withdraw at any time, or just play poorly for some unknown reason and miss the cut, then… hey, he’s a great leverage play in this range! Very few players in the field have a better course history than Jason Day does here at Augusta. He’s made 8-of-9 cuts at The Masters (one withdrawal) with three top 5s, an additional top 10, and an average finish of 22nd. His most recent top 5 finish at Augusta was just a year ago. Day’s game seems to go through ebbs and flows these days but he is coming off of a T7 performance at last week’s Houston Open where he gained strokes in every major tee to green category (+1.29 SG: OTT, +1.63 SG: App, +4.52 SG: ATG) and there was nothing to complain about with the putter either (+2.20 SG: P). If that form carries into this week, he’ll have a great shot at adding another top 10 Masters finish to his resume… but he is definitely a risky GPP only play in my book.

Low-Priced Targets

Jason Kokrak | DK: $7k, FD: $9k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #35 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 18th SG: BS | 64th SG: ATG | 11th P4 AVG | 8th Driving Dist. | 26th P5 AVG

This will be Kokrak’s first Masters appearance and, for the most part, any Masters debutant is going to get a sizable strike against them. However, for these prices, we don’t exactly need Kokrak to go out there and ‘ship this thing… or even finish top 10-20. Kokrak has been stringing together terrific results lately so he has a clear upside, especially since he is one of the longest hitters in this field. He does have one missed at the Shriners, but in his other previous six starts he has finishes of T17, 1st, T17, T6, T13, and T15. Not too shabby. He’ll need to step up his play around the greens but he’ll head into the week as one of my favorite value plays on the board.

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #36 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 30th SG: BS | 26th SG: ATG | 30th P4 AVG | 34th Driving Dist. | 21st P5 AVG

Like Kokrak, Munoz is another Masters debutant but he’s been playing some very solid golf lately and just seems to be underpriced. Munoz has made nine consecutive cuts and has six top 25s (three top 10s) in that stretch. He probably doesn’t have the kind of distance off of the tee to compete for a win, but that’s not what we’re expecting out of this price range anyway. Munoz is simply a strong example of a non-elite golfer that has simply been doing everything well lately while not excelling in any one particular aspect. Expect him to be one of the most popular punts in the field this week -- perhaps around 20-25% in GPPs. Adjust your exposure percentages accordingly!

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 8/1 | CMR: #8 | GPP Preferred

PGA DFS this week is going to revolve around what people decide to do with Bryson. He’s going to try to overpower Augusta National, unlike anyone, has ever done in history. As obvious as it sounds, it’s either going to work out for him or it isn’t. I don’t think there is much in between. I believe you either choose to go massively overweight on Bryson in comparison to the field or just outright fade him and hope his bomb and gouge approach fails. Either way, it’s going to be interesting to watch.

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 9/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

In DJ’s last six starts: two wins, three runner-ups, and a T6. DJ’s last four starts at The Masters: T2, T10, T4, T6. Anyone who has been paying attention to golf lately knows that he’s been crushing it. But if you’re fairly new to the sport or only dabble in PGA DFS for tournaments like The Masters, just know that Johnson has simply been on another level lately. The $10k price tag on DK is pretty absurd and that may result in him being the highest owned golfer of the week.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Hideki has solid distance (16th in SG: OTT, 20th in DD), great irons (7th in SG: App), and he’s an absolute master around the greens (1st in SG: ATG). He’s had some quality results here with top 20 finishes in four of his last five trips to Augusta, including a pair of top 10s. Matsuyama’s upside always comes down to the putter but his ball striking and play around the greens should at least keep his name in the conversation on Sunday.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #14 | Cash & GPP

Oosty checks into Masters week in some pretty decent form with five top 25s over his last seven starts. He has also finished T29 or better in five of his last six starts at Augusta National and posted a runner-up result in 2012. He doesn’t stand out incredibly well on the stat sheet but he’s simply been a golfer who has grinded out solid results and this is a fair price to pay for someone who should bring some decent security to a lineup.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #42 | GPP Only

Scheffler is a Masters newbie and has had some erratic results lately but the 24-year-old has some great distance (11th in DD) and can get hot and pour in a lot of birdies (8th in BoB%). He may be worth a shot in GPPs and will likely be about 10% owned or lower.

Lee Westwood | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #19 | GPP Preferred

Westwood is coming off of a missed cut last week and hasn’t competed in The Masters since 2017 but if you can look past that, he has some certified elite course history. Westwood has made 15-of-18 cuts at Augusta National and has posted six top 10s and three top 5s in that time. Five of his last eight starts at Augusta have resulted in finishes of T8 or better. Westwood has pretty good distance (19th in DD) and stands out as an excellent course horse GPP value target.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10k, FD: $11.8k

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That will do it for our Masters preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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