By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

We have arrived at the final event of the 2020-2021 season as the top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have earned the right to compete in the TOUR Championship held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. For those who may be unfamiliar with how this tournament is set up and played before golfers even take their first swing this week they are assigned a predetermined starting score based on their position in the FEC standings. For example, Patrick Cantlay is first in the standings and will begin this tournament with a 10-under score. The further down in the standings someone is, the higher their starting score will be and golfers who are seeded 26th-30th will be the only players who will begin at even par. If you are curious as to why golfer salaries are so abnormal this week, that is the reasoning. I will link the FEC standings and playoff rules below. This will be another no-cut event so, barring a withdrawal or disqualification, all 30 golfers will play all four rounds. One guy to look out for, as far as a withdrawing goes, is Patrick Reed. In prior weeks, Reed has been dealing with an ankle injury but more recently he has been recovering from bilateral pneumonia which required hospitalization. He was released from the hospital on 8/26 but there is still some uncertainty on whether or not he will be able to compete this week.

Who will be crowned the 2020-2021 PGA Champion and capture that $15 million payday? We’ll soon find out!

FedEx Cup Standings

FedEx Cup Rules Explained

Strategy 📝

DFS strategy for this event is going to be a bit different than most weeks. With only 30 players to choose from, no matter who you draft, you’re rostering 20% of the entire field within each and every lineup. If you utilize 100% of your salary in a lineup, it is almost guaranteed to be duplicated in any large field GPP (and nobody really likes splitting money). The obvious way to avoid this is to leave some salary on the table – a few hundred bucks *at least*. The perfect lineups from last year’s 2020 TOUR Championship (which had the same unique scoring structure) are pictured below and, as you can see, on DraftKings there was $3,200 of ‘dead’ salary and $300 left over on FanDuel. 

The other aspect that makes strategizing around this tournament unique is obviously the fact that golfers are starting out with different scores from the get go. Unless you’re taking Patrick Cantlay (-10) or Tony Finau (-8), the golfers you select will need to have some upside and are capable of making an emphatic jump up the leaderboard in order to grab those bonus placement points. Last year at the TOUR Championship, Mackenzie Hughes was $5,200 on DK and $7,000 on FD. He began the week at T-26 with an even par starting score since he was 26th-30th in the championship seeding. He went on to finish solo 14th with an 8-under score and was essentially a major ‘key’ punt play that unlocked the door to winning GPPs that week. Someone from that range may not climb the leaderboard as far this year, but that’s the sort of plays we need to try to find in the lower salary ranges.

Also, in general, I wouldn’t be afraid to “plant my flag” on a particular golfer or two and go all-in on them with 100% exposure. Most weeks that won’t necessarily be a great strategy but so many of these guys are going to possess insanely high ownership. Going 100% on someone will obviously put you above the field and give you leverage if that golfer performs well. I also don’t plan on risking too much of my bankroll on this event considering how volatile the format is versus how small the field is. You can obviously go as light or as heavy as you’d prefer, but personally, I’ll be risking about 5-10% of my bankroll on this event and will mostly be looking forward to watching the actual tournament while rooting on my guys.

The Course Preview ⛳

East Lake GC is a Par 70 course that extends a lengthy 7,300-7,400 yards, depending on pin placement, and features Bermuda-grass greens, Bermuda-grass rough, and Zoysia-grass fairways. It was re-designed by the famed Donald Ross in 1913 with further renovations being made by Rees Jones in 1995 and 2008. Other well-known Ross-designed courses include Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), Pinehurst No. 2 (three-time US Open host course), Aronimink Golf Club (2018 BMW Championship), Oak Hill County Club (host course of several PGA Championships & US Opens), along with many others.

We’ll have plenty of course history for much of the field this week as East Lake has hosted the TOUR Championship every year since 2004. In the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 24th, 14th, 24th, 31st, and 27th. So, overall, this course tends to play slightly on the more difficult side of things and should offer up a tougher challenge than what golfers competed against last week at Caves Valley GC which saw every single golfer shoot under par for the week and featured a winning score of 27-under par.

The tree-lined fairways at East Lake are on the narrower side and contain large fairway bunkers that guard around the preferred landing zones. The Bermuda-grass greens are East Lake’s primary defense. They are guarded by many greenside bunkers, particularly towards the front, and will be set up to run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter). Even though, overall, these greens average about 6,300 sq/ft, which is right around Tour average for a course, some of the greens are large and multi-tiered with plenty of slope, while others are smaller and carry more back-to-front slope without tiered sections. Accurate iron play and a hot putter are essential every week, but even more so out at East Lake. 

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

With no cut and just 30 players in the field, tee times are all very close to each other, so I wouldn’t exactly let weather factor into any decision-making this week. Regardless, the forecast appears ideal for some great golfing conditions. Plenty of sunshine is expected, there is no major threat of rain during competition, and wind speeds should remain calm essentially all week.

TOUR Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

DraftKings & FanDuel Targets

Key Stats [Only] Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Jon Rahm | DK: $13k, FD: $13k

Odds: +355 | Starting Score: -6

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

Despite starting four shots back behind Patrick Cantlay, Rahm comes into the week as the odds on favorite to win the TOUR Championship along with its $15M top prize. He has made it to East Lake each of the last four years, finishing 4th, 12th, 11th, and 7th. He has simply strung together a stellar 2020-21 season which has vaulted him into the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. Rahm will be a highly sought after golfer in DFS this week but he is simply too rock solid to fade entirely in my opinion. He should be viewed as the most likely golfer to catch up to Patrick Cantlay, who will not be able to gain the absurd +14.5 strokes on the greens as he did last week.

Tony Finau | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.3k

Odds: 7.5/1 | Starting Score: -8

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #5

While Patrick Cantlay could certainly end up taking advantage of his 10-under starting score and lead this thing wire to wire, Tony Finau (starting at 8-under) should not be counted out either and provides a solid DFS discount compared to the aforementioned Cantlay. Finau has two 7th place finishes at East Lake over the last four years and has been showing off some promising trends during these playoffs. If he simply has a decent week, he should be able to stick inside the top 5 fairly easily and provide considerable win equity as well.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 25/1 | Starting Score: -2

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #2

The obvious knock against Rory this week comes from his starting score of 2-under while also maintaining moderately high DFS salaries. However, he made a valiant push at the BMW Championship where he landed a 4th place finish and ranked 2nd in SG: OTT on the week while posting a great well-rounded performance. He has also dominated at East Lake historically and has an average finish of 4th place in six starts, including two wins (2019, 2016). He’ll need to make a significant leap up the leaderboard to secure some valuable fantasy placement points but, when his game is on point, he’s fully capable of shooting multiple rounds in the mid-60s.

Sam Burns | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | Starting Score: -4

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #19

Burns will have more of a wildcard feel to him this week as he comes in to Atlanta to play East Lake for the first time competitively in his career. The upside is quite apparent as he checks in at 6th in the field in P4 AVG and 3rd in overall Birdie or Better %. He’s also been rolling it well this year and is 6th in the field in SG: Putting (Bermuda). With a T-2 and an 8th place finish under his belt within his last three starts, along with a win (Valspar) and several other top 10s on the season, Burns could quite easily cut down his six shot starting deficit to Patrick Cantlay in a hurry.

Sungjae Im | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 50/1 | Starting Score: -3

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Overall Model Rank: #20

Im has been off my radar for nearly this entire season but it may be time to put him back on the map. Im has ‘im’-pressed during these last two playoff events, finishing T=16 at The Northern Trust along with a solo 3rd place finish at last week’s BMW Championship. The ball striking is rounding back into form and he’s also rolling it with a nice flat stick after gaining more than six strokes against the field on the greens last week. His season-long metrics don’t exactly support him as being a worthy play, but the short term recent form indicators certainly do. I’ve been burned many times before entrusting Im with any amount of confidence, but I do believe he will move up this leaderboard this week. He’ll come in with some course familiarity as well after playing East Lake in each of the last two seasons, finishing 11th (2020) and 19th (2019).

Daniel Berger DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 175/1 | Starting Score: Even

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #12

Berger will be one of the five golfers (or four, if Reed is unable to play) who will be starting off at even par. That all but nixes his chances of winning, but as noted above within the “Strategy” section, in this format you don’t really need guys from this range to even crack into the top 10 for them to ultimately end up being an optimal play. Berger’s game shines with his iron play. He has gained strokes against the field on approach in 15 consecutive tournaments. With a little luck with the putter (12th in SG: Putting - Bermuda) and a couple of savvy shots out of some bunkers or the greenside rough, he could easily move up a dozen spots or so from his T-26 starting position. Berger has played East Lake four times in his career and has finished inside the top 15 each time -- though, three of those finishes came prior to the new format being implemented. Regardless, Berger stands out as one of the more attractive punt plays of the week.

Erik Van Rooyen | DK: $5k, FD: $7k

Odds: 225/1 | Starting Score: Even

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Overall Model Rank: #28

EVR will check in at the stone cold minimum on both sites but he has made the largest push up the FedEx Cup standings out of any player on Tour over the last four weeks, coming from outside the top 140 all the way up to 27th. He notched his first career PGA win at the Barracuda Championship in the first week of August, had a decent T37 at the Wyndham Championship the following week, and completely dialed it in during the playoffs with a solo 7th place finish at The Northern Trust and a solo 5th place finish at the BMW Championship. He has been carrying all the right tools in his bag needed for success during that span and positive momentum is a hell of an intangible quality for a golfer to have at their side during this final championship stretch of the season. 

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week!

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