Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

Tournament & Field 🏆

We have arrived at the final event of the 2019-2020 season as the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings have earned the right to compete at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia for the TOUR Championship. For those who may be unfamiliar with how this tournament is set up and played, before golfers even take their first swing this week they are assigned a predetermined starting score based on their position in the FEC standings. For example, Dustin Johnson is first in the standings and will begin this tournament with a 10-under score. The further down in the standings someone is, the higher their starting score will be and golfers who are seeded 26-30 will be the only ones who will start at even par. If you are curious as to why golfer salaries are so abnormal this week, that is the reasoning. I will link the FEC standings and FEC playoff rules below. This will be another no cut event so, barring a withdrawal or disqualification, all 30 golfers will play all four rounds. One guy to look out for, as far as a withdrawing goes, is Rory McIlroy. It isn’t due to injury, it’s due to the fact that his wife is very pregnant and due any day now. McIlroy has already said he will not hesitate to withdraw this week in order to be there for the birth of his first child. I can’t wait to see who will be crowned the 2019-2020 PGA Champion and capture that $15 million payday!

FedEx Cup Rules (scroll down a bit for details pertaining to this week)

FedEx Cup Standings

Strategy 📝

DFS strategy for this event is going to be a bit different than most weeks. With only 30 players to choose from, no matter who you roster in your lineups, you’re rostering 20% of the field. If you utilize 100% of your salary in a lineup, it is almost guaranteed to be duplicated in any large field GPP (and nobody really likes splitting money). The obvious way to avoid this is to leave some salary on the table -- a few hundred bucks *at least*. The perfect lineups from last year’s 2019 TOUR Championship (which had the same unique scoring structure and DFS salaries) are pictured below and, as you can see, on DraftKings there was $300 of unused salary, $1,300 on FanDuel.

The other aspect that makes strategizing around this tournament unique is obviously the fact that golfers are starting out with different scores from the get go. Unless you’re taking Dustin Johnson, the golfers you select will need to have some upside and capable of making a noteworthy jump up the leaderboard in order to grab those placement differential bonus points. Last year at the TOUR Championship, Chez Reavie was $5,100 on DK and $7,100 on FD. He began the week with a 1-under starting score since he was 21-25 in the championship seeding. He went on to finish solo 8th with a 6-under score and was essentially the ‘key’ punt play that unlocked the door to winning GPPs that week. Someone from that range may not climb the leaderboard as far this year, but that’s the sort of plays we need to try to find in the lower salary ranges.

Also, in general, I wouldn’t be afraid to “plant my flag” on a particular golfer or two and go all-in on them with 100% exposure. Most weeks that’s not a great strategy but so many of these guys are going to possess insanely high ownership. Going 100% on someone will obviously put you above the field and give you leverage if that golfer plays well. I also don’t plan on risking too much of my bankroll on this event considering how volatile the format is combined with how small the field is. You can obviously go as light or as heavy as you’d like, but personally, I’ll be going in about 5-10% on my bankroll and mostly just looking forward to watching the actual tournament while rooting on my guys.

The Course Preview ⛳

East Lake GC is a Par 70 course that extends a lengthy 7,300-7,400 yards, depending on pin placement. We’ll have plenty of course history with many golfers this week, as East Lake has hosted the TOUR Championship every year since 2004. In the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 14th, 24th, 31st, 27th, and 17th. So, overall, this course tends to play on the more difficult side but scoring conditions shouldn’t be as tough as they were last week at Olympia Fields where only five players (out of 70) scored below par after four rounds. The tree-lined fairways at East Lake are on the narrower side and feature large fairway bunkers that guard around the preferred landing zones. The Bermuda grass greens are East Lake’s primary defense. They are guarded by many greenside bunkers, particularly in the front, and will be set up to run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter). Even though, overall, these greens average about 6,300 sq/ft, which is right around Tour average for a course, some of these greens are large and multi-tiered with plenty of slope, while others are smaller and carry more back-to-front slope without tiered sections. Accurate iron play and a hot putter are essential every week, but even more so out at East Lake.

Quick Note: Much like last week, due to the small field and no cut, I won’t be including any cash or GPP star ratings. Weeks like this are more suited for heavier GPP/MME approaches anyway since missing on just one guy in a cash lineup could basically knock you out of contention to profit. Also, I’m only going to highlight a handful of golfers. Much more than that and I’m basically recommending about half of the field and that would seem a tad disingenuous.

Weather ⛅

Remember that this event is unique in that it starts Friday (9/4) and will end on Monday (9/7).

With no cut and just 30 players in the field, tee times are all very close to each other, so I wouldn’t exactly let weather factor into any decision making this week. But regardless, conditions should be pretty good through all four rounds. Some rain chances come into play on Sunday (along with 15-20 mph gusts Sunday morning) and Monday, but I don’t believe they’ll run into any major issues or delays.

Key Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: Off the Tee + SG: Approach) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

Golfers to Consider

Jon Rahm | DK: $12.7k, FD: $12.5k

Odds: 3/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Starting Score: -8

Key Stat Ranks*: 5th SG: BS | 10th P4 AVG | 9th BoB% | 6th SG: ATG | 16th SG: P (Bermuda)

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to where a player ranks within the field for any given week.

I have a hard time believing Rahm won’t be one of, if not THE, highest owned players in this field after he launched that miraculous weekend comeback at last week’s BMW Championship, which was capped off by an absurd 66 foot putt to win the playoff hole against DJ. Rahm will start two strokes behind DJ at 8-under, which he is obviously capable of making up and jumping into first. Over the final 36 holes last week, Rahm led the field gaining +6.99 strokes tee to green and +4.71 strokes putting. If he keeps that momentum rolling into East Lake, Dustin Johnson and the other players starting near the top of the leaderboard will have plenty to worry about with Rahm chasing that $15 million payout. This will be Rahm’s fourth appearance in the TOUR Championship and he has finished 12th, 11th, and 7th at East Lake in the last three years.

Webb Simpson | DK: $11k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5 | Starting Score: -6

Key Stat Ranks: 16th SG: BS | 1st P4 AVG | 1st BoB% | 5th SG: ATG | 1st SG: P (Bermuda)

Simpson is one of the handful of guys who can realistically have a chance at making up the stroke advantage on DJ and coming away with the win. Simpson will be four strokes back and, considering he tops the field in 3-of-5 key stats, is fully capable of putting up some rounds in the mid-to-low 60s. By the numbers, he has the best putter on Bermuda grass in the field and also has plenty of experience at East Lake. Keep in mind, this is just the second year with this type of staggered starting score system but in seven appearances at this course, Simpson has carded three top five finishes. He’s starting out in fourth place this week by default, so I don’t see why he can’t build on that throughout 72 holes of golf. He’s also the only golfer in the field who took last week off, so maybe there’s a “coming in fresh and well-rested” narrative you could run with him as well.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 25/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4 | Starting Score: -3

Key Stat Ranks: 9th SG: BS | 6th P4 AVG |13th BoB% | 10th SG: ATG | 11th SG: P (Bermuda)

Seven strokes back may be too tough of a hill for Schauffele to climb, but if there’s a course horse in this field, particularly in recent seasons, it’s gotta be the X-Man. In three appearances at East Lake in each of the last three years, Schauffele has carded finishes of 2nd, 7th, and 1st. While he hasn’t had stellar results the last two weeks in the playoff events, he has simply been one of the most consistent golfers across the entire year and I wouldn’t mind giving him another shot in lineups this week.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #16 | Starting Score: -2

Key Stat Ranks: 14th SG: BS | 12th P4 AVG | 5th BoB% | 7th SG: ATG | 14th SG: P (Bermuda)

Hatton’s starting deficit behind first place will be eight strokes but in this price range he has been perhaps the most prolific birdie-maker this season when compared to other golfers around him. You can go through his event logs and see a multitude of rounds where he shot 63, 64, 65, and 66. He is another guy whose form has dipped a bit, but in these playoffs it isn’t like he’s been bad (T25 at The Northern Trust, T16 at the BMW Championship). This will be his debut at East Lake but it’s a course that he could absolutely get hot on. I don’t think he can cash in on those 80/1 odds to win but I do imagine he can play his way into a top 5 finish if he regains the form we saw him have earlier on in the season and soon after the restart back in June.

Kevin Kisner | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k

Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #13 | Starting Score: -1

Key Stat Ranks: 23rd SG: BS | 16th P4 AVG | 28th BoB% | 25th SG: ATG | 8th SG: P (Bermuda)

Kiz is not someone who has topped the charts with great iron play this season and he hasn’t poured in the birdies on a consistent basis. He more or less lives and dies by the putter and if you draft him this week, you’ll be hoping the flat stick heats up. Prior to last week’s T25, he had back-to-back top five results and he has finished 9th and 3rd in his two previous trips to East Lake (2019 & 2017). He may be one of the golfers who can shoot up the leaderboard but it’s obviously not going to be easy.

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7k

Odds: 400/1 | Custom Model Rank: #21 | Starting Score: Even

Key Stat Ranks: 30th SG: BS | 29th P4 AVG | 29th BoB% | 2nd SG: ATG | 15th SG: P (Bermuda)

If we’re really going to the basement level salaries, Hughes is really the main guy I’d be intrigued by and it’s for similar reasons to Kisner. Hughes can simply get a very hot putter going and even though he ranks right in the middle in strokes gained putting on Bermuda, in overall strokes gained putting, he ranks 8th in the field. He came through for me last week with a T10 which was a week where he actually gained +2.32 strokes tee to green against the field, so he wasn’t completely reliant on the putter (but did still gain +2.94 SG: P). It’s a long shot obviously, but as I mentioned earlier, Chez Reavie climbed his way up from a similar starting position last year all the way to 8th and ended up being an optimal play. Perhaps Hughes can lobby for a comparable performance.

That’ll do it for the TOUR Championship and the 2019-2020 PGA season! It hasn’t been an easy journey to get here but you can’t say it wasn’t memorable. Also, the beauty of golf is there is virtually no off-season so we’ll be right back at it next week for the Safeway Open, and in two weeks for some Major action at the US Open! Good luck this week and enjoy the action!

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