Written by Ryan Humphries

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour rolls into its third week of action since the season restart and will travel about 900 miles up the east coast to Cromwell, Connecticut where TPC River Highlands will play host to the Travelers Championship. The field is very strong once again, especially at the top, as nine of the world’s top 10 golfers will be on site. There is a bit less depth than there was in the previous two weeks, as ‘just’ 62 of the top 100 players are within this field of over 150 players. However, make no mistake, this event still boasts a level of competition that could rival many Majors. The typical 36-hole cut rule will apply once again this week; the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend. Over the last two weeks, only about 5-10% of entries in DraftKings contests have been comprised of lineups where all six golfers made the cut. Really focusing on guys who can perform well across the first two rounds will always be the easiest path to a profitable week. Of course that is always easier said than done!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC River Highlands

Par 70 | 6,841 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua Mix

Course Difficult Last Five Years: 19th, 25th, 21st, 26th, 39th

Cut Line Last Five Years:

2019: -1

2018: -1

2017: +1

2016: Even

2015: -1

Winners Last Five Years:

2019: Chez Reavie -17

2018: Bubba Watson -17

2017: Jordan SPieth -12

2016: Russell Knox -14

2015: Bubba Watson -16

TPC River Highlands is nearly the shortest course on the PGA Tour which will allow for a large portion of the field the ability to really compete for a high finish, or even a podium, as bombers won’t necessarily have any significant advantage -- much like the previous two events played. Instead, precision over power will be the name of the game for a third consecutive week. TPC River Highlands was redesigned by Pete Dye in 1982 so you will notice many similarities between this course and Harbour Town from last week’s RBC Heritage. Golfers will be visually intimidated off of the tee and forced into finding the correct landing zones in order to set up a more advantageous approach shot. There are a total of 69 bunkers that players will have to navigate, as well as four water hazards. Elite ball strikers should really thrive on this layout.

The fairways are not quite as narrow as last week but many players will still opt to club down in order to avoid the thick rough that is featured here. In recent years, players hit these fairways at about a 67% clip, which is roughly 6% higher than Tour average. A sharp mid-iron game is important, as about 45% of approach shots will come within 125-175 yards. The green complexes average about 5,300 square feet, so while they are considerably larger than last week they are still small by PGA Tour standards. It’s also worth mentioning that the mixed bentgrass/poa annua greens here will play differently than the Bermuda greens at Harbour Town, so golfers will have to adjust accordingly. Since this is a Par 70, there are only two Par 5s available. However, there are still plenty of entertaining scoring holes scattered throughout, though many of them are of a high ‘risk/reward’ nature. In 2019, TPC River Highlands saw players score the 14th most birdies across all courses played for the season but it also generated the 10th most bogeys. This is sure to be another tightly contested, entertaining event that will likely come down to the wire with high-level competitors.

Weather ⛅

The weather could prove to be a factor at times this week but, for the most part, it seems like conditions will be pretty favorable for golf over the first two rounds (which is always our primary focus for non-single round DFS contests). Winds will be negligible, particularly on Thursday AM and Friday AM while picking up slightly both afternoons, though sustained winds should not reach much higher than 10 mph with ~15 mph gusts. Currently there doesn’t appear to be much of a wave advantage there.

The weekend may bring different challenges, as Saturday currently features potential 20-30+ mph gusts with upwards of 15 mph sustained winds at times. Meanwhile, rain is a potential threat both Saturday afternoon and throughout the day on Sunday. This is far from the worst golf forecast I’ve seen but just be aware that things could get a little hairy over the weekend. As always, I recommend running one final forecast check on Wednesday night before you make any final decisions with your player pool. Click the image below to see the most up-to-date outlook.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

3. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 20%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Proximity 125-175 Yards (Mid-Iron Accuracy) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR*: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

*CMR denotes a player’s ranking in my custom model for the week.

After a posting a T8 last week, DeChambeau has now notched five consecutive top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour -- seven total in 12 events this season. Despite the three month layoff, he has clearly exhibited the best recent form in this field. DeChambeau would definitely qualify as a ‘bomber,’ which isn’t exactly a play style that TPC River Highlands is designed for. But DeChambeau has shown there is much more to his game than simply launching 330+ yard drives down the fairway. In the last two weeks, he has gained +18.35 strokes tee to green on the field, which is simply dominant. He has some very solid course history at TPC River Highlands as well, making 4/4 cuts including back-to-back top 10 finishes the last two years. Per the key stats, DeChambeau ranks 7th in SG: BS, 7th in P4 AVG, 8th in BoB%, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 37th in Mid-Iron Accuracy. His high price may make it difficult to fit him into a cash lineup but he carries a ton of win equity into this event and has to be heavily considered as a cornerstone in GPP lineup builds.

Paul Casey | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #11

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

The big risk with Casey this week is the fact that we haven’t seen him play a competitive round of golf since late February when he recorded a solo 11th place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship. However, if there is any course where Casey should exhibit very little rust, it is TPC River Highlands. He has played this course for the last five years and in those starts, not only has he comfortably made the cut each time, he has finishes of 5th, 2nd, 5th, 17th, and 2nd. Those are some certified “course horse” results if I’ve ever seen ‘em. On paper, Casey ranks 4th in SG: BS, 54th in P4 AVG, 16th in BoB%, 84th in Bogey Avoidance, and 124th in Mid-Iron Accuracy. For the price you’re paying for him, those aren’t exactly the sexiest stats but given his track record, he’ll be hard to ignore for GPP lineups. I would completely understand wanting to avoid him for cash games due to the unknown level of rust he *may* need to shake off.

Mid-Priced Targets

Tony Finau | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #14

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

In this mid-salary range, Finau feels like an ideal candidate for all contest formats this week as he carries very strong top 10 equity with a low risk of completely burning your lineups (knock on wood). He did miss the cut at this event last year but has produced top 25 finishes in all of his other three trips to TPC River Highlands. Since the restart, he has posted solid, yet unremarkable, finishes of T33 and T23 but in his ten previous starts this season, he finished inside the top 10 four times. In this field, Finau ranks 20th in SG: BS, 13th in P4 AVG, 23rd in BoB%, 31st in Bogey Avoidance, and 4th in Mid-Iron Accuracy. For how well his game should fit this course, Finau just feels like he’s a few hundred dollars underpriced on both sites and I’m certainly tempted to also put a small wager on his 50/1 odds to win.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #25

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

At these price points, big Scottie Scheffler is a golfer who provides immense upside and a relatively strong level of safety. Here’s to hoping he goes a bit overlooked after he withdrew from the field prior to last week’s RBC Heritage, but there are no reports indicating that had anything to do with being injury related, so he should be a full-go. Scheffler earned 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year honors and is a candidate to be named the PGA Tour’s rookie of the year at the end of this season. He has made 12/14 cuts with four top 10s this season and will look to continue his stellar rookie campaign when he makes his Travelers Championship debut this week. Scheffler ranks 15th in SG: BS, 8th in P4 AVG, 5th in BoB%, 38th in Bogey Avoidance, and 31st in Mid-Iron Accuracy. His game is more suited for longer courses with wider fairways where big hitters can thrive. But he still hits his fair share of fairways at about a 62% clip and I’d fully expect him to club down on several holes so his strong short-to-mid iron game can thrive. I love his chances at a top 15 finish and would consider him in all formats, especially in GPPs.

Low-Priced Targets

Doc Redman | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #41

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

After an opening round of 72 (+1) at last week’s RBC Heritage, Redman went on to shoot 66, 65, and 67 over the next three days -- ranking 4th in SG: T2G in that time and finishing T21. If he can keep the irons hot heading into this week while rolling in a few putts, he could certainly make some noise and prove to be a strong value play once again. Across the season, Redman ranks 17th in SG: BS, 33rd in P4 AVG, 52nd in BoB%, 58th in Bogey Avoidance, and 35th in Mid-Iron Accuracy. This will be Redman’s debut on this course but he has managed to make it to the weekend in 7 of his last 8 events. He is still perhaps a fringe cash play but he’s a great salary saving target for tournaments.

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #39

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

NeSmith is another young golfer who has strung together a very solid rookie campaign. He has made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts with four finishes of T17 or better in that time. NeSmith easily could have been in the mix for a top 10 finish last week if it weren’t for a lackluster round of 73 (+2 over par) on Saturday -- he shot 66, 67, and 66 in his other three rounds and was 4th in SG: T2G across those 54 holes. This will be his Travelers Championship debut but I do believe his game will translate quite well to TPC River Highlands. NeSmith ranks 49th in SG: BS, 33rd in P4 AVG, 43rd in BoB%, 21st in Bogey Avoidance, and 90th in Mid-Iron Accuracy. The sub-par mid iron play isn’t too concerning, as he does hit plenty of fairways (28th in Driving Accuracy) and, in turn, lands on a lot of greens in regulation (ranks 15th in GIR). He has shown a solid ceiling this year and if he simply makes the cut he really won’t need to do much more over the weekend to pay off these salaries.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.8k, FD: $12k

Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

JT’s game is near top form after landing back-to-back top 10 finishes to the season’s restart and another high-end result, perhaps even a win, is most likely on the horizon yet again. Thomas’ course history here is a bit of a mixed bag, but he ranks 6th or better in all five of my key stats for the week. The only red flag I can think of is the fact that he has shown poor putting splits on Poa greens but the greens at TPC River Highland are Bentgrass/Poa mix so maybe that will ultimately prove to be inconsequential.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Preferred

Cantlay would usually be a near cash game lock at these sort of prices but he is another golfer making his first PGA start since mid-February so we may have to pump the brakes a bit. Still, roll him out in GPPs because his form was very strong prior to the shutdown and he’s produced back-to-back 15th place finishes at this event the last two years. Ranks 5th in SG: BS, 3rd in P4 AVG, 2nd in BoB%.

Bubba Watson | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #19 | GPP Preferred

It usually pains me to write up Bubba Watson, especially after his massive price increases, but I’m compelled to at least mention him considering he has won here three times and has five total top 5 finishes in 13 appearances at TPC River Highlands (with just two missed cuts). The form, overall, is pretty solid right now, as he has shot under 70 in seven of his last eight rounds including multiple rounds of 65 since the restart.

Sungjae Im | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

If people are going to be scared off of Sungjae after his missed cut last week, then I’m all for taking advantage of that. Im lost 4.4 strokes putting during his two rounds last week but still gained strokes tee to green. A rough week with the putter can happen to anyone and Im has proven to be one of the best grinders on Tour, so I’ll take some shares at these discounted prices.

Matthew Fitzpatrick | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #80 | Cash & GPP

Fitzpatrick doesn’t often show up well in my player models for one reason or another but the fact is that his streak of 20 consecutive made cuts trails only Collin Morikawa (23) on the PGA Tour. He’s shown top ten upside this season and I have no reason to suspect he’ll have a poor outing this week.

Ian Poulter | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #34 | Cash & GPP

I was torn on who to mention between Poulter and Viktor Hovland, as they both land at essentially the same price this week, but Poulter gets the edge for me after a strong T14 last week. He virtually always plays Pete Dye courses extremely well and has shown some nice consistency across his last few events. Hovland is a favorite play of mine as well, just perhaps more for GPPs.

Brian Harman | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #17 | Cash & GPP

Harman isn’t really known as the model of consistency but that is exactly what he has been the last two weeks, and for much of the season. He has just two missed cuts in 14 starts this year with seven top 30 finishes. He returns to a course where he has had plenty of success in recent seasons, posting three top 10 finishes in the last five years at TPC River Highlands. Harman feels like a safe investment with plenty of proven upside in this spot.

Will Gordon | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k

Odds: 500/1 | CMR: #85 | GPP Only

It’s about that time to go punting. For basically the bare minimum on both sites you can get a guy who has finishes of T20, T21, and T10 across his last four starts on the PGA Tour. This will easily be the toughest field he has competed against to date, but Gordon is the reigning SEC Player of the Year and has shown a lot of promise early on in his pro career. If he can manage to keep his drives in the fairway (52.9% Driving Accuracy) then he could at least keep his name in the mix when it comes to playing into the weekend.

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That will do it for our Travelers Championship preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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