Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

After a fun week of primetime US Open action, the PGA Tour sets its sights back towards the east coast for the Travelers Championship to be held at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut. There is still plenty of talent to choose from, as five of the world’s top 10 golfers, and 37 of the top 80, will be on site this week. The 36-hole cut rule will revert back to the traditional “top 70 & ties” making the weekend out of this 156 player field.

TPC River Highlands is another Par 70 layout that checks in at 6,840 yards -- making this one of the shortest tracks on TOUR. The fairways are not overly wide but, according to previous seasons, these players should hit them at around a 67% clip -- roughly 6% above TOUR average. As Pete Dye designed courses typically go, golfers don’t need to be overly long but they are challenged off of the tee to hit certain landing areas in order to create a more advantageous approach shot. As such, ball striking dominates the key stats for this week. Since this is such a short course, the majority of approach shots will come in the 125-175 yard range, making a sharp wedge game crucial. Being a Par 70, the ability to be an efficient Par 4 scorer is also a must. TPC River Highlands is a very ‘get-able’ course and last year’s winner, Bubba Watson (third Travelers win), finished with a score of 17-under, which is roughly a winning score that we should expect to see this go-round. Let’s take a quick look at the weather, the key stats I am factoring into my player model this week, and some golfers to to consider!

Weather ⛅

We could see some weather cause an affect to scorecards this week. Sustained winds on Thursday should stick to the single digits with gusts only hitting about 13 mph later in the day -- nothing pro golfers can’t handle. Some rain is forecasted to fall but shouldn’t cause any stoppages in play and should keep the course conditions soft, potentially allowing for more scoring. Friday gets trickier with ~10 mph sustained winds throughout the day and gusts hitting 20-25 mph. Some morning rain is projected to fall as well. For now, both waves see similar enough conditions to where I wouldn’t give either group an edge. This is definitely a week to keep an eye on things, however, and see if an edge opens up as we get closer to Thursday morning. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 40%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Proximity 125-175 Yards | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas (DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

The form obviously isn’t there for JT right now, so you absolutely can’t trust him for cash games. But after two missed cuts sandwiched around a T20, no one is really going to feel thrilled about rostering him. So he’s a perfect risk/reward play for tournaments. He, once again, gained strokes tee to green but lost strokes putting last week at the US Open, which ultimately led to his early exit. If he finds the form with the flat stick again, any seasoned golf fan knows what JT can do with his driver and irons. He doesn’t have the best course history, having made 3/5 cuts here, but he did reel in a T3 in 2016. On the year, he ranks 5th in SG: BS, 1st in BoB%, 3rd in P4 AVG, and 1st in Proximity 125-175 Yards. If my tournament model was solely based on statistics, he ranks first pretty easily. However, with course history and current form factored in, he checks in 9th overall and is still a decent favorite to win with 20/1 odds. If there’s one bright side to his missed cut at the US Open, I think something can be said for having a couple of extra days to travel and get some early practice in on TPC River Highlands. The majority of the elite players in this field obviously aren’t getting that advantage.

Paul Casey (DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This is clearly a place that Casey’s game translates well to considering he has made 4/4 cuts at TPC River Highlands, including two runner-up finishes, a T5, and a T17 -- all coming in the last four years. He bounced back pretty well with a T21 at last week’s US Open since having to withdraw after the first round of his previous start at the Charles Schwab Challenge when he came down with the flu. While Casey does have four top 5s, including a win, in 15 events this season, he’s another guy who would find himself in the final groupings more often on Sundays if he could just consistently putt well (106th in SG: Putting). If he happens to have a good week on the greens, it will pair very well with his immaculate ball striking. Overall, he ranks 3rd in SG: BS, 24th in BoB%, 15th in P4 AVG, and 6th in Proximity 125-175 Yards. He’s another golfer with 20/1 odds and ranks 12th in the tournament model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Jason Kokrak (DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Kokrak didn’t meet the criteria to play in the US Open but, for a guy who was playing a ton of golf, ultimately it may be a good thing that he’s had a few weeks off. He’s been as steady as it gets, making 16/16 cuts on the year including a hot stretch in February to March where he carded four top 10s. He’s made the weekend at the Travelers in four out of five attempts and easily ranks top 20 in all key stats this week: 6th in SG: BS, 17th in BoB%, 14th in P4 AVG, and 10th in Proximity 125-175 Yards. Despite 69th and 62nd place finishes in two of his last three starts, I believe he can come in fresh this week and be a safe bet to land near a top 20 finish and perhaps make a run at the trophy. He has 66/1 odds and ranks 4th in my model.

Byeong Hun An (DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Uh oh, has Bennie An found his putter? An is an elite golfer tee to green (15th SG: T2G) but his awful putter (138th SG: Putting) has been the downfall to many of his PGA starts. However, he’s now officially gained strokes putting in two consecutive events. Unsurprisingly, he has back-to-back top 20 results to show for it. He is a guy who bombs it 300+ yards regularly without a ton of accuracy, so he’ll need to maybe club down in some spots in order to find the short stuff. But if he merely continues to stay average on the greens and avoids landing in the rough too much, the rest of his game will carry him to a strong week. He checks in at 15th in SG: BS, 19th in BoB%, 11th in P4 AVG, and 14th in Proximity 125-175 Yards. An has 50/1 odds and rates out 25th in the tournament model. He’s one of my favorite dark horses to win.

Low-Priced Targets

Troy Merritt (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If the course history was a bit better, I’d have quite a bit more confidence in Merritt for the week. He is only 2/7 on cuts made at TPC River Highlands, however one of those made cuts includes a T8 finish in 2017. He is 9/12 for cuts made on the season with a couple of top 10s and enters this week with a T17 in his last start (the Memorial). Merritt’s most recent top 10 came at Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), which is another Pete Dye designed course. Statistically, it seems like he should fit the bill heading into the Travelers, as he ranks 32nd in SG: BS, 9th in BoB%, 13th in P4 AVG, and 12th in Proximity 125-175 Yards. No one should be looking to cash in on his 150/1 odds to win but he does rate out at 15th overall in this week’s model.

Collin Morikawa (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

With plenty of focus going towards the top amateur finisher at the US Open, Viktor Hovland, who will officially be turning pro this week, Morikawa shouldn’t be overlooked since impressing in both of his starts since becoming a professional. Morkiawa carded a T14 at the Canadian Open and followed that up with a T35 on one of the biggest stages in the golf world at the US Open. He hasn’t played nearly enough rounds to qualify for PGA stats, but I think he absolutely has a great chance to play well this week. Morikawa closed out his college career with 25 consecutive top 20 finishes, after all. It may take some time before he translates that sort of consistent dominance to the PGA level but he clearly has shown he can compete. Love him as a low owned punt play in tournaments.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Brooks Koepka (DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.6k) | GPP Preferred | If you’re making multiple lineups, I don’t know how you can fade this man. Especially when he is a 6/1 favorite to win. You rarely see a number that low in golf. He’s the top ranked player in the model this week by a mile.

- Bubba Watson (DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.2k) | GPP Preferred | The epitome of a “course horse.” 10/12 cuts made at TPC River Highlands with five top 5s, including three wins. “Bubba Courses” are definitely a thing and this is one of ‘em. But beware: his putter is running absolutely ice cold lately.

Mid-Priced

- Emiliano Grillo (DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.9k) | Cash & GPP | An elite ball striker (4th in SG: BS) who just can’t putt. He lost over six strokes on the greens last week but he carries a ton of cut-making equity. Ideal for cash games.

- Si Woo Kim (DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k) | GPP Only | His form is completely off the rails but he specializes in Pete Dye courses, so maybe he finds something in his bag that works for him this week. If I have 20 lineups, I’d throw him in two… maybe three and that’s about it. He is a virtual lock to be <5% owned considering he has burned so many people recently.

Low-Priced

- Matthew Wolff (DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k) | GPP Preferred | This dude has a wild swing but he is ready to make some waves on the PGA Tour. Won six of his final 11 collegiate events. There’s a reason his odds to win are so high for a guy most have probably never heard of before. (Seriously, check out this dude’s golf swing).

- Cameron Tringale (DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k) | GPP Preferred | These salaries just seem too low for a guy with three top 25s in his last four starts. Not the best overall ball striker but his approach game is solid and he’s an efficient Par 4 scorer.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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