Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

It is time for the world’s best to put up or shut up. Golf’s third Major is here, as Pebble Beach Golf Links is set to host this year’s 119th US Open out in Pebble Beach, California. Aside from Eddie Pepperell, who withdrew due to injury, every single one of the world’s top 60 golfers are on location. The field also includes 75 other players, both amateurs and professionals, who didn’t meet the exemption rules and qualified through sectionals so, as usual, the US Open has one of the widest arrays of golfers of any PGA Tour event. Remember that this week, with a field of 156 golfers, the cut rule is tweaked a bit and only the top 60 (and ties) after 36 holes will move on to compete on the weekend. However, there will be no secondary cut (MDF) in play.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is celebrating its 100th anniversary. The course will play much differently than it did for the Pro-Am that took place in early February. The Par 5 second hole has been adjusted to a very difficult Par 4, resulting in the track playing as a Par 71 that stretches a modest 7,075 yards. Do not be fooled by the shorter length -- there are many defenses that have been put into place as the course has been altered to offer more of a Major-caliber challenge. The US Open was last played at Pebble Beach in 2010 when Graeme McDowell won with a final score of even par. Interesting tidbit (via Pat Mayo): he was the last US Open winner who had odds worse than 50/1 heading into the week. To get an idea of how difficult Pebble Beach will play, you can see the scoring results on a hole-by-hole basis from that 2010 US Open here.

As I mentioned, this course will look and play much differently than it does for the annual Pro-Am. You can’t really “bomb and gouge” and expect to have success. The fairways at Pebble Beach have been narrowed by upwards of 60 yards in some places and some have described them as “strips of bacon.” There are certain landing areas that are designed to offer a more advantageous second (and third) shot. If a golfer misses the short grass, they can find themselves in some nasty rough that has been thickened tremendously. There are also areas where the rough is cut deceptively thin/short and will cause balls to roll into some pesky bunkers. Golfers are almost resigning themselves to an automatic bogey when finding themselves dealing with these course defenses. When approaching the greens, players will be aiming for some of the smallest complexes on TOUR. Hitting just 60% of greens in regulation will be a massive feat -- only eight players did so in 2010. The Poa Annua greens are also cut shorter than they are for the Pro-Am and should run moderately faster. Keep in mind that the Pebble Beach Pro-Am also falls in the early season around February. Now that it is June, expect both the fairways and greens to run a bit faster in general. So, not to get too long-winded, let’s get a look at the weather, the stats I am keying in on in my personal tournament model, and some stand out plays for this week!

Weather ⛅

For a course set up right on the Pacific coast, windy conditions will surprisingly be avoided this week. For both Thursday and Friday, the sustained winds will settle into the single digits with gusts barely exceeding 10 mph. There is no rain forecasted heading into the first two rounds, so neither wave should get any sort of advantage with softer conditions. Temps will hang in the 60s with plenty of sunshine. Unless something changes between the time of this writing (Tuesday afternoon) and Thursday morning, weather should have no impact on what golfers you choose to roster! But, as always, double check as we get closer to the opening round teeing off. A link to the forecast will be attached to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 20%

3. Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 20%

4. Driving Accuracy | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

Note: I’ll be giving golfers who rank top 40 in both SG: ATG and GIR a sort of unweighted ‘bonus’ when highlighting them. Those stats are, of course, already factored into my player model but, considering the small green complexes, guys who can excel in these two categories should find themselves with more birdie opportunities and also be able to get up-and-down to save par (which is almost like scoring a birdie on some of these holes).

High-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay (DK: $10k, FD: $11.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Top 40 SG: ATG + GIR Bonus: Yes

If world golf rankings reset every couple of months, Cantlay would possibly be the No. 1 player in the world right now. He’s simply churning out elite finish after elite finish. I think most would set aside Brooks, DJ, Rory, and perhaps Tiger in their own elite tier, and it certainly makes sense that they are the four most expensive golfers on both sites. While most weeks I would think Cantlay would be mega-chalk, more casual players come in to play PGA DFS on Major weeks, considering roster construction is easier with softer pricing and the added contests with huge payouts (i.e. The Millionaire Maker). As such, those more casual players may not be all that familiar with the name “Patrick Cantlay” and opt to roll out the more recognizable names. Just a thought. Cantlay will still be plenty popular, but for good reason. He ranks 8th in SG: App, 13th in SG: ATG, 25th in GIR, 75th in Driving Accuracy, and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. The driving accuracy is the only concern but he is a golfer who routinely launches it off of the tee 300+ yards and, like many bombers this week, I could see him dialing the driver back and perhaps clubbing down -- specifically on the shorter holes where an accurate 280 yard drive works just fine. He’s a great guy to build around in all formats. He ranks 6th in my model this week and currently has 20/1 odds to win.

Justin Thomas (DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Top 40 SG: ATG + GIR Bonus: Yes

This is seriously a buy low spot on JT, as most may still be scared away from him due to his recent return from a wrist injury. In his first event back from that injury at the Memorial, Thomas did show some rust, as he lost over six strokes on approach in the second round (his worst round on approach in years) and went on to miss the cut. Last week at the Canadian Open, for players who made the weekend, Thomas trailed only Rory McIlroy (who won in dominating fashion) in SG: T2G but Thomas lost nearly three and a half strokes putting on the week. He still managed a strong T20 finish despite struggling on the greens. A wrist injury is going to affect your driver, irons, and wedges much more than the putter, so if he can bounce back with even just an average week with the flat stick, we should expect great things. He dominates four of my key stats, ranking 4th in SG: App, 8th in SG: ATG, 3rd in GIR, 58th in Driving Accuracy, and 11th in Bogey Avoidance. I believe the injury is behind him and, as I say in pretty much every newsletter, putting is the most volatile metric on any given week. Thomas has traditionally been a great putter on Poa Annua greens in recent years so I expect a top 10 finish from him to be well in play at relatively low ownership. He ranks 10th in the model and holds 25/1 odds to win.

Mid-Priced Targets

Adam Scott (DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Top 40 SG: ATG + GIR Bonus: Yes

Scott has two missed cuts on the year as well as an MDF that came here at Pebble Beach. However, in his eight events in which he’s played all four rounds, he has finished no worse than T18. With back-to-back top 10s, and a T18 and T12 prior to that, his form is trending in the right direction in a major way. In his most recent start at the Memorial, he crushed the field, gaining over four strokes per round tee to green -- including nearly three strokes per round on approach. I’d look for him to keep those irons sharp and, historically, he has been a very strong Poa Annua putter. Overall, he ranks 14th in SG: App, 17th in SG: ATG, 33rd in GIR, 49th in Driving Accuracy, and 39th in Bogey Avoidance. While he may not excel mightily in any one area, he doesn’t show any weaknesses, even in some secondary stats that I’m paying attention to this week (short iron accuracy, Par 5 AVG, scrambling). I’d keep him in consideration for all formats. He carries 33/1 odds and checks in at 12th in the model.

Webb Simpson (DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Top 40 SG: ATG + GIR Bonus: Yes

Since DFS pricing gets released around a week earlier for most Major events, we typically will get some guys who appear mispriced after carding an excellent result heading in from the week before. Simpson would be one of those guys after snagging a T2 at the Canadian Open in which he shot the first 54 holes bogey-free! Considering the strength of this field, I wouldn’t bank on a top five finish or anything, but Webb is a guy who has shown he can excel on big stages as a former US Open winner (2012) and many may remember his dominating 2018 victory at The Players. On a course that requires guys to hit fairways, throw darts with their irons, and get creative around the greens, Simpson fits the profile perfectly. He checks in at 16th in SG: App, 9th in SG: ATG, 37th in GIR, 12th in Driving Accuracy, and 4th in Bogey Avoidance. He has some of the best form in this field and his 50/1 odds stand out quite noticeably against golfers priced around him. If pricing came out yesterday or today, he’d probably be around $1,000 more expensive on both sites. Simpson is the second ranked player in my tournament model.

Low-Priced Targets

Tyrrell Hatton (DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Top 40 SG: ATG + GIR Bonus: No

Hatton is a tough guy to get right on any given week but I’m interested in grabbing some exposure to him in GPPs due to his extreme preference for Poa Annua greens. Since 2014, Hatton averages 2.68 strokes gained on Poa Annua greens, which trails only Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Paul Casey in that time. Overall, he ranks 68th in SG: App, 12th in SG: ATG, 42nd in GIR, 41st in Driving Accuracy, and 81st in Bogey Avoidance. You may notice that, while he doesn’t excel greatly across all five metrics, he just barely misses out on that ‘bonus’ I’m allocating to players who rank top 40 in both SG: ATG and GIR. Hatton comes into this week with five consecutive made cuts worldwide, including a T8 just a few weeks ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He also showed the ability to compete on an extremely tough course in last year’s US Open in which he carded a T6 at Shinnecock Hills. He’s not a guy you can trust for cash games but, if he gets that putter going, don’t be surprised if he is around the top of the leaderboard once Sunday rolls around. He is a 150/1 long shot but he rates out 41st in this week’s tourney model.

Jim Furyk (DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Top 40 SG: ATG + GIR Bonus: Yes

You’re playing with fire if you dip too far into the depths of these low-priced golfers but Furyk, who may not be an exciting guy to roll out, has a ton of experience both in US Opens (21/24 made cuts, 7 top 5s, one win) and at Pebble Beach (13/14 made cuts, two top 10s). In 2010, when Pebble Beach was set up for the US Open, Furyk found his way to a T16 finish. On the season, he ranks 12th in SG: App, 37th in SG: ATG, 5th in GIR, 1st in Driving Accuracy, and 6th in Bogey Avoidance. This is clearly an excellent course fit for him. Furyk’s immense cut equity for an extremely low salary will probably make him an ideal (and chalky) candidate for cash games. Lowering exposure to him in GPPs could be a good move but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ‘back doors’ a top 25 finish. He is another 150/1 long shot to win but he ranks 18th in the tournament model.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Brooks Koepka (DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.3k)

| GPP Preferred | SG: ATG/GIR Bonus: No | Brooks may not be the best statistical fit for Pebble Beach but, hey, it’s a Major. If you’ve watched golf or played PGA DFS for the last year, you know Brooks turns it up in Major weeks. Can he go back-to-back-to-back? I wouldn’t rule it out.

- Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.6k)

| Cash & GPP | SG: ATG/GIR Bonus: Yes | My guy Fleetwood has been a great ball striker to target on tough courses -- evident by his consecutive top 5 finishes at US Opens the last two years. Tough to find any cracks in his overall game.

Mid-Priced

- Paul Casey (DK: $8.3k, FD: $10k)

| GPP Preferred | SG: ATG/GIR Bonus: Yes | With more appealing or safer options priced around him, I could see Casey going overlooked. Or perhaps anyone who played him in his last start at the Charles Schwab Challenge (like me) has a grudge against him for withdrawing with the flu after the first round. Gotta forgive and forget, because he can absolutely succeed here.

- Brandt Snedeker (DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k)

| Cash & GPP | SG: ATG/GIR Bonus: No | Sneds game is trending up at the right time to make a run at a Major. Finished 8th here at the 2010 US Open and, in total, has five US Open top 10s. He’s another guy who is pretty mispriced.

Low-Priced

- Billy Horschel (DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.9k)

| GPP Preferred | SG: ATG/GIR Bonus: No | Form is trending up with three straight top 25 results and I trust his ball striking more on a shorter course like Pebble Beach. I’m still holding a slight personal vendetta against him when I was heavy on him at the Valero Texas Open -- his only MC of the season -- but I can’t ignore his potential upside for this week.

- Erik Van Rooyen (DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

| GPP Preferred | SG: ATG/GIR Bonus: N/A | EVR has shown immense scoring upside on the EURO Tour this season and has translated his skills to a T8 (PGA Championship) and T20 (Canadian Open) in his last two PGA Tour starts. He averaged over 309 yards/drive last week and was T2 in fairway accuracy. The fairways will be much tougher this week but if he can somewhat replicate that sort of performance, he’ll have a massive edge on the field. Very intriguing guy to bet at 150/1.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll look to be around in chat quite a bit this week to help with any questions. We also have several sharp guys who offer some great insight in chat as well. Nice to see the discussion in PGA pick up lately!

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