By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour is set to tee up the 2021 Valero Texas Open which will be hosted by TPC San Antonio. With The Masters just one week away, it is no surprise that this field isn’t packed to the brim with star power. However, plenty of talented golfers are still looking to fine tune their game ahead of next week’s Major, and 29 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be on site this week. This field of 144 players will abide by the traditional cut rule, so after Friday’s round the top 65 players (including ties) will move on to play the weekend. With a Major right around the corner, MLB starting up tomorrow, March Madness down to its Final Four teams, and several other sports in full mid-season swing I won’t be surprised if this tournament goes overlooked across the DFS landscape. But if you’re looking to stay in mid-season form yourself when it comes to PGA DFS, stay on the ball and go crush it this week!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) has hosted this event every year since 2010 (ignore any course history prior to that). This is a Par 72 set-up that reaches 7,435 yards and it plays every bit of that length. This is one of the more difficult courses on TOUR and it regularly ranks inside the top 10 to 15 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour each year. It’s not uncommon to see a single digit score under par win here. The oak tree-lined fairways are narrow and they are surrounded by some fairly troublesome rough as well as many native areas which features hazards like desert, brush, rocks, and trees. There are also 58 bunkers scattered throughout the course however water will come into play on just three holes. The Bermuda grass greens (overseeded with poa and bent grasses) here can challenge golfers, as many of them consist of steep drop-offs and problematic undulations. The greens are average in size and typically run moderately fast (11.5-12 on the stimpmeter), though don’t be surprised if they look to speed things up in order to provide a similar challenge to Augusta National next week. Golfers will need to play well around these greens if they wish to post up a high-end finish come Sunday.

This course is relatively wide open so wind will absolutely play a significant factor and it is something we must monitor closely this week. In the past when wind conditions have kicked up here, there has been upwards of a 4 stroke scoring difference between the morning and afternoon waves. Some golfers have even just straight up withdrawn from the tournament because of the winds. It really is the one factor that most determines how tough TPC San Antonio will play so keep an eye on that forecast! With all of that said, let’s jump into a more detailed look at the weather, some stats I’m building my player model around, and some golfers I’ll be looking to target!

Weather ⛅

Winds are very likely to have an impact on scoring conditions this week and there is a real possibility a wave advantage develops. Looking at the forecast pictured below, you’ll see that sustained winds will hover around 15 mph for much of the opening two rounds, and gusts could kick up into the 20-25 mph range. The weekend could see some problematic winds as well, mainly on Saturday, but if you’re playing full four round DFS contests, your golfers are going to need to get past that cut line before you worry about the final two rounds.

Verdict: It’s actually looking like the PM/AM wave could have a noticeable advantage this week as those guys may end up avoiding the worst of the winds across the opening two rounds on Thursday and Friday. It isn’t a super clear cut advantage, but possibly notable enough to where I would look to have about 60-65% of my player pool consisting of golfers who draw the PM/AM tee times.

Valero Texas Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Tony Finau | DK: $11k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 2nd SG: BS | 10th P4 AVG | 2nd BoB% | 22nd SG: ATG | 5th P5 AVG

Is this the week Finau puts it all together and he finally snags that elusive win? Very possible. If you’ve been following the Finau saga this season, you’ll remember that he went on a three event stretch between the PGA and EURO Tours where he came so close to a win but ultimately finished as a runner-up. I’m expecting Finau’s elite ball striking and reliable short game to show itself this week and he profiles as a great course fit. He has made all three cuts at TPC San Antonio including a 3rd place finish in 2017. I also love the fact that he draws the preferred PM/AM tee time advantage. With Dustin Johnson withdrawing from this event earlier in the week, it leaves Finau as the 1st (DK) and 2nd (FD) most expensive option, but I believe he’s worth the premium price this week despite coming off of a missed cut at The PLAYERS.

Charley Hoffman | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 6th SG: BS | 31st P4 AVG | 15th BoB% | 89th SG: ATG | 59th P5 AVG

You’re not going to find a golfer in this field who is more qualified than Hoffman when it comes to ‘course horse’ honors. In ten starts at TPC San Antonio, Hoffman has made the cut all ten times and he has posted an average finish of 16th which includes four top fives and a win in 2016. He also enters the week in a very respectable form on the heels of five consecutive made cuts, featuring three top 20s. He’s also another player who will draw the PM/AM tee time advantage this week. Hoffman is an excellent cornerstone piece to cash lineups and the win potential will put him firmly on the GPP radar as well, despite likely high ownership.

Mid-Priced Targets

Chris Kirk | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 24th SG: BS | 11th P4 AVG | 32nd BoB% | 4th SG: ATG | 45th P5 AVG

Kirk’s game has been running hot for a while now. Since his start at the RSM Classic back in mid-November, Kirk has posted six top 25s in his nine starts since, while missing only one cut in that stretch. In his five starts at TPC San Antonio between 2015 and 2019, he did miss the cut twice. However, when he made it into the weekend, he posted terrific finishes: 8th (2018), 13th (2016), and 8th (2015). So, he knows how to succeed here. Kirk, unfortunately, doesn’t get the preferred tee time advantage as he tees off with the AM/PM wave, but considering his solid accuracy off the tee and ability to bail himself out of trouble around the greens, I would look for him to handle any troublesome winds quite well.

Sam Burns | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #19 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 8th SG: BS | 4th P4 AVG | 4th BoB% | 118th SG: ATG | 19th P5 AVG

This is a pretty good chance to get Burns at low ownership. He posted a solo 3rd place finish at the Genesis Invitational… however, in the two starts since then he has failed to make it past the cut line so you have to imagine that many people will be hesitant to trust him. Despite his lack of consistency, his potential to bomb it down these fairways and set himself up for more favorable approach distances will make him a prime candidate to bounce back from those recent struggles. He carded a top 25 here in 2019 and, assuming the current forecast holds, he draws one of the better tee times of the week as he’ll be out there in the second group on Friday morning. He’s a bit risky right now but he’s an excellent GPP target who should check in at under 10% ownership.

Low-Priced Targets

Chase Seiffert | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #37 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 37th SG: BS | 22nd P4 AVG | 58th BoB% | 84th SG: ATG | 72nd P5 AVG

Seiffert was one of our featured plays from last week’s Corales Championship and he came through with a respectable T18 finish. That marked his third consecutive top 20 finish on the PGA Tour, and his fourth in his last six starts. His approach and scoring stats are impressive for someone in this salary range and despite this being his course debut, he stands out as an appealing value option. Seiffert also has the fortune of drawing the PM/AM wave as well.

Will Gordon | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #47 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 45th SG: BS | 76th P4 AVG | 22nd BoB% | 127th SG: ATG | 61st P5 AVG

Gordon enters the week with five consecutive made cuts and an average finish of 33rd place in that span. That average finish over his last five starts ranks as the 10th best mark in the field. Also, his average of 70.8 DKFP ranks him 11th in the field in terms of average DKFP per start over a player’s last five events. Now, he’s not breaking through with tremendously impressive results and he has just one top 25 in that aforementioned five start stretch. However, for these prices, if he simply keeps doing what he’s been doing, he’s going to return value. Gordon’s stats may not be the most appealing but he possesses one of the most powerful drivers in this field (2nd in driving distance) and his birdie upside is certainly there. Additionally, he draws the PM/AM tee time advantage and he will actually be in the very first group teeing off on Friday morning, which is when the sustained winds are forecasted to be at their most calm within the opening two rounds.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Jordan Spieth | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #7 | GPP Preferred

All eyes will be on Spieth this week as he checks in as the odds on favorite to win in his home state of Texas. After an uninspiring T48 at The Players, he should be looking to snap back into form as golfers are just a few days away from Masters week.

Corey Conners | DK:$9.5k, FD: $11k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Conners is the reigning champ here and enters the week off of back-to-back top 10 results. His average finish of 20th over his last ten starts is the best mark in the field and he also ranks as the top ball striker in the field. He doesn’t get the preferred tee time advantage but he’ll be a tough guy to fade regardless.

Brendan Steele | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #10 | GPP Preferred

Steele hasn’t missed a cut this calendar year (eight starts) and he returns to TPC San Antonio where he possesses a ton of strong course history. He won here back in 2011 and has made 8-of-9 cuts in total with four top 15 finishes. Following a T3 at The Honda Classic a couple of weeks ago, he’ll be a prime target for tournaments.

Rickie Fowler | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #55 | GPP Only

If there is any well-recognized player in this field who is in need of a (massive) tune up ahead of The Masters, it’s Rickie Fowler. He’s had a very rough go as of late with three missed cuts over his last six starts and finishes of T65, 72nd, and T20 in the three weeks he did make the cut in that stretch. If he hopes to keep all those lucrative endorsements in his pocket, he’ll need to start showing up on the leaderboard. He did card a 17th place finish here in 2019.

Edit: Just realized Rickie needs a WIN to qualify for The Masters. That's a motivation for ya!

Sam Ryder | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #22 | Cash & GPP

Checks in with top 10 finishes in his last two starts. He’s been crushing it in the tee to green department in those two starts and he stands out as a nice value option with significant upside.

Roger Sloan | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #23 | Cash & GPP

I hate his tee time draw but if he can deal with those winds, Sloan looks like a great piece to stars and scrubs build. He is coming off of three straight top 25 finishes and his irons have been sharp (16th in SG: BS) along with his scoring on Par 4s (7th in P4 AVG). If he simply makes the cut, you’re in business.

Akshay Bhatia | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #99 | GPP Only

Bhatia is a talented young golfer to keep an eye on for the future. The 19-year-old may not be ready to compete week in and week out with stacked PGA fields, but with the overall talent level for this week residing in the low/mid-range, he has a chance to post a sneaky strong result. He pulled off a T9 at the Safeway Open last September as well as a T30 in his last taste of PGA action at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s a worthy GPP flyer.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman won’t be one of the most talented golfers in a PGA level field most weeks… but for this week, he is. And, as mentioned above, he returns to a course where he’s had plenty of success and has never missed a cut. Also, as previously mentioned, he gets the more favorable tee time advantage with the PM/AM wave. Hoffman gives me plenty of reasons to make him my One and Done pick this week (and it’d be great if he can start a nice run for me in my leagues because I’m on a rough skid).

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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