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Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | Valero Texas Open ⛳️
Written by Ryan Humphries
Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!
The Player Field & Course Preview
After taking a little one week break during the Dell Match Play event (which was a great watch!) and the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (better luck next year, Romo), we are back with some PGA content for the Valero Texas Open held at TPC San Antonio! Of course, we are just nine days away from The Masters, so plenty of golfers are already on-site in Augusta prepping for the week ahead. Thus, the field for the Valero isn’t a strong one by any means, but it’s head and shoulders above what the Corales was. We have 15 of the world’s top 60 golfers in attendance this week -- headlined by Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, and Jordan Spieth. The field will consist of 144 players and the top 70 (and ties) after Friday’s round will move on to play the weekend.
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) is a Par 72 set-up that reaches 7,435 yards and it plays every bit of that length. This is one of the more difficult courses on TOUR and rated as the 12th toughest (out of 51) course last year. It’s not uncommon to see a single digit score win here. The oak tree-lined fairways are narrow with many challenging bunkers and native areas lingering alongside -- not much water to worry about, however. Missing the fairways often times isn’t a major issue depending on what area the ball finds. Considering the length of TPC San Antonio, it is more important to be long off the tee than it is to be extremely accurate. The greens here can challenge golfers, as many of them consist of steep drop-offs and problematic undulation. Golfers will need to play well around these greens to put up a high finish come Sunday. This course is relatively wide open so wind can absolutely play a huge factor and is something we must monitor closely this week. In the past when wind conditions have gotten bad here, there’s been upwards of a 4 stroke scoring difference between the morning and afternoon waves. Some golfers have even just straight up withdrawn from the tournament because of the winds. With that said, let’s jump into a more detailed look at the weather, some stats I’m building my player model around, and some golfers I’ll be looking to target!
Weather ⛅
For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage to be had for either group of golfers teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). The top priority in PGA DFS should be getting 6/6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line -- so if there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!
Thursday morning will have sustained winds in the 7-12 mph range with gusts hitting the mid-teens. Most of the afternoon will see winds consistently around 10 mph. Friday morning starts off with very little wind -- about 3-5 mph. Heading further into the afternoon, winds appear to pick up, eventually sustaining around 12 mph with the potential for gusts near 20 mph. This is enough for me to give the PM/AM wave an advantage, especially if those high gusts you see very early Thursday morning end up carrying into the very beginning of the tournament. The wind forecast can change quickly here, so absolutely keep an eye on conditions as we get closer to Thursday morning.
Click the image above for the most up-to-date forecast!
Top Stats to Consider* 📊
1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%
2. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (Par 5 BoB%) | 20%
3. Driving Distance | 15%
4. Proximity 175-200 Yards | 15%
5. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens (SG: ATG) | 15%
*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category. Also, course history and current form are always the top two "stats" to consider in any given week.
High-Priced Targets
Byeong-Hun An (DK: $9.2k | FD: $10.2k)
Wave: PM/AM
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Honestly, I’m not overly drawn towards many of the highest priced golfers which is why I’m starting with a Weekly Drive favorite in Benny An. I just feel that some of the top guys like Fowler and Kuchar already have their sights set towards the Masters next week and this is basically just a ‘tune-up’ event for them. If one or two holes don’t go their way, I could easily see a mental checkout as travel plans to Augusta start to enter their mind. I’ll still roster some of them for GPPs but in terms of core plays, I don’t know if any of the top five or six guys priced will make the list. So, getting to An, he’s been an absolute monster tee-to-green this season and ranks 1st in the field SG: T2G. He’s made 8/8 cuts on the PGA Tour this season and (for stroke play events) is most recently coming off of a T26 at The PLAYERS and a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His lone trip to TPC San Antonio resulted in a 40th place finish -- I expect at least a top 20 this go-round. Statistically, he is a great course fit and then some. He ranks 5th in SG: BS, 8th in Par 5 BoB%, 5th in Driving Distance, 18th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 2nd in SG: ATG. As I always mention with him, the knock with An comes with his putter. But I think he has such an advantage with his play around-the-greens (and tee to green) this week that he can ultimately outclass other golfers who happen to gain more strokes with the flat stick. In my opinion, he is a great core play to build around in all formats as a 33:1 favorite and he ranks 2nd in the model.
Ryan Moore (DK: $9.1k | FD: $10.1k)
Wave: PM/AM
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
I’m expecting a rapid bounce back from Moore after a missed cut at the Valspar knocked his climbing form off the rails a bit. In his three trips to TPC San Antonio, he has carded finishes of 7th (2018), 18th (2017), and 8th (2012). While he isn’t long off of the tee (286 yards per drive this season), he has clearly proven he can handle lengthier courses, this one included, aided by his exceptional long irons and steady performances around and on the greens. Moore is 13th in SG: BS, 44th in Par 5 BoB%, 100th in Driving Distance, 26th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 28th in SG; ATG. A third consecutive top 20 finish at the Valero should be on the horizon for Moore. He has 40:1 odds to win and is 6th in the player model.
Mid-Priced Targets
Ryan Palmer (DK: $8.4k | FD: $9.8k)
Wave: PM/AM
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Palmer has been a bit tricky to figure out this season but I think we have to at least give him strong consideration this week due to his upside and course history. Over his last three events, he has a 4th place finish at The Honda Classic sandwiched in the middle of missed cuts at The PLAYERS and Pebble Beach. He posted two additional top 10’s earlier in the season as well -- it’s been a very ‘feast or famine’ type season for Palmer. He missed the cut at TPC San Antonio last year but in the three years prior, he reeled off 6th, 4th, and 6th place finishes. His successes here can be attributed to his great ball striking and top tier long iron play. He’s 12th in SG: BS, 41st in Par 5 BoB%, 26th in Driving Distance, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 102nd in SG: ATG. He’s maybe had a bit too volatile of a season to lock in for cash games but three top six finishes in the last four years makes him an ideal course history GPP target. He holds 50:1 odds to win and lands at 10th in the model.
Sung Kang (DK: $7.7k | FD: $9.5k)
Wave: PM/AM
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
Another Weekly Drive favorite! Kang has been doing his ‘thang’ in 2019. He has made 8 of his last 9 cuts while amassing five top 20’s in that span with the majority coming against much tougher fields than this one. He has only made 2/5 career cuts at TPC San Antonio but those two made cuts have come within the last three years -- one being a 6th place finish. There’s no major weakness in the key stats for him either. He’s 46th in SG: BS, 20th in Par 5 BoB%, 44th in Driving Distance, 34th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 51st in SG: ATG. He looks like a target for me across the board. Kang has 66:1 odds to win and he’s 8th in the player model.
Low-Priced Targets
Nick Taylor (DK: $7.2k | FD: $8.7k)
Wave: PM/AM
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
Taylor has just kind of been knocking out strong and steady results while DraftKings and FanDuel decide to not adjust his pricing. A golfer shouldn't stay this cheap when their last five starts have been finishes of 24th, 16th (@PLAYERS!), 30th, 33rd, and 28th. It’s not like he is barely making these cuts -- he’s getting valuable finishing points as well. His current form also ranks 7th in the field! He missed the cut at TPC San Antonio last year but in the two previous years, Taylor carded 22nd and 21st place finishes. His metrics won’t blow you away but there’s not much to really gripe about either -- 45th in SG: BS, 63rd in Par 5 BoB%, 74th in Driving Distance, 68th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 60th in SG: ATG. Many of his recent finishes have come on tougher courses, so he should be battle-tested enough at this point to at least make a sixth consecutive cut. While another top 35 finish would be some strong value. His 80:1 odds are some of the best you will find in this range and he shows up at 15th in the model.
DJ Trahan (DK: $6.7k | FD: $8k)
Wave: PM/AM
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Trahan has been thriving in these weak field tournaments as of late with three straight finishes of 18th or better in what has been a bit of a renaissance period for the 38-year-old. He has made the weekend on both of his trips to TPC San Antonio including a 15th place result in 2013. Trahan hasn’t been getting these high finishes lately on the toughest of tracks, which gives me some pause when considering him for DFS purposes. But his stats are impressive regardless. He is 2nd in SG: BS, 2nd in Par 5 BoB%, 25th in Driving Distance, 40th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, and 49th in SG: ATG. For right now, I have him as a cash viable play because he is just so cheap and his form is on point. We’ll see if the wheels fall off the wagon this week. He has 150:1 odds and ranks 7th in the model.
Side note: Tee times came out after I was pretty much done with highlighting the players above. Pure coincidence that they’re all part of the PM/AM wave, ahah!
Quick Hits | Others to Consider
High-Priced
- Rickie Fowler (DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.5k) | Wave: AM/PM | GPP Only | I’m going to play Rickie in some spots just because he is the class of this field and could wind up winning by multiple strokes. This will be his TPC San Antonio debut. I don’t love the course fit for him but you can’t ignore a 10:1 odds on favorite.
- Jordan Spieth (DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.7k) | Wave: PM/AM | GPP Only | If anyone is in need of a ‘tune-up’ week before next week’s Major, it’s Spieth. He has just one top 10 finish in his last 21 starts. The last time he was here, in 2015, he finished as the runner-up. His game will 'click' again someday... maybe this week?
Mid-Priced
- Luke List (DK: $8k, FD: $10.5k) | Wave: AM/PM | GPP Preferred | List is such a wild card and tough to figure out this year but he’s got the ball striking and bomber profile we’re looking for on this course. 3rd in SG: BS, 1st in Par 5 BoB%, 1st in Driving Distance. He could easily cash in on his 50:1 odds... or finish DFL!
- Joaquin Niemann (DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k) | Wave: AM/PM | GPP Only | I’m really rooting for Niemann to find that groove that he bursted onto the scene with last year. A missed cut at Corales isn’t a great sign heading into this week but on the season, he’s made 10/13 cuts and finished 6th here last year.
Low-Priced
- Adam Schenk (DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k) | Wave: PM/AM | Cash Preferred | Schenk has been sort of a hot DFS value play lately with a slew of solid finishes. Missed the cut at the Valspar but landed no worse than 33rd in his other four most recent starts. Strong metrics for this course as well. He should carry a good amount of cut equity as a cash viable punt play.
- Freddie Jacobson (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k) | Wave: PM/AM | GPP Only | When a golfer is this cheap and is 8/8 on cuts made at a course (with two top fives) you might as well throw them in at least one stars & scrubs lineup! Coming off of a 33rd place finish at the Corales last week as well, so there’s at least some form going with ol’ Freddie.
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That will do it for our Valero Texas Open preview! See you guys next week for THE MASTERS!!! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!
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