By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

After a week off, we return for some more PGA DFS now that a normal stroke play event is back on the docket! The PGA Tour heads back down to the Sunshine State for the Valspar Championship held in Palm Harbor, FL at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course). This will be another full field event with 156 players on-site and the typical 36-hole cut rule is back in play (top 65 & ties play the weekend). This tournament was one that unfortunately had to be canceled in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic so PGA Tour golfers will be teeing up here for the first time since 2019. This isn’t a super loaded field, but we’ll still have plenty of talent to select from as 41 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are set to compete. Headlining this field are names like Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland, and defending back-to-back (2018-2019) Valspar champion Paul Casey. The PGA Championship is just three weeks away so for any golfers who may be struggling and are looking to compete in the next Major, this will be a good week to get the form into shape.

The Course Preview ⛳

Aside from 2020, Copperhead has hosted this tournament every year since 2000. It’s a Par 71 set-up that extends 7,340 yards and features five (!) Par 3s, all of which check in at 195+ yards. To put it succinctly, Copperhead plays long and very difficult. Golfers will need to do the majority of their scoring on the four Par 5s and simply fight to survive the rest of the course at even par. Copperhead routinely ranks as one of the top five most difficult courses and a single-digit winning score is not uncommon at all here. Its most famous stretch of holes, dubbed “The Snake Pit”, is the furthest thing from a cakewalk and will likely decide the champion come Sunday.

Personally, these tougher tracks are my favorite sort of courses to watch the professionals compete on and they’re in for a grueling battle this week. Accuracy is more important than distance here, as there are several doglegs, tight fairways, thick rough, 70+ bunkers, and water that comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes. As a result of many golfers clubbing down off of the tee, around a third of approach shots will come in the 175-200 yard range. Add on to that the four Par 3s that are all essentially 200+ yards in length and it’s easy to see that long iron accuracy can pay dividends here. Any regular readers of this newsletter know I tend to weigh SG: Approach very heavily most every week. I’ll be switching that up to focus on golfers who simply excel tee-to-green this week. I’ll also be targeting guys who can take advantage of Par 5 scoring and those who rank out well in terms of bogey avoidance. On many of these holes, even par is going to feel like a birdie to these guys and any shots that are dropped will be difficult to gain back. This one should get interesting so let’s go ahead and jump into a quick look at the weather, key stats to focus on, and my favorite plays for this week!

Weather ⛅

Wind conditions at Copperhead can certainly make an already tough course that much more difficult and we’ll need to keep track of things leading up to Thursday morning. Temps in the 70s and 80s all week, though.

Thursday: Sustained winds will be close to 15 mph for much of the day with slightly stronger gusts.

Friday: Slightly less windy than Thursday but they’ll hover around 10-15 mph for most of the day.

Weekend: If you’re playing single round contests on Saturday, the guys teeing off early could see more favorable conditions and will only have to deal with wind speeds in the single digits. Sunday looks like the toughest day of the week with winds pushing 25-30 mph in the middle of the day. Could see a bit of rain in the final round as well.

Verdict: No significant wave advantage at this time but keep an eye on the forecast in case anything changes.

Valspar Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Paul Casey | DK: $10k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #8 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 11th SG: T2G | 47th P4 AVG | 46th P5 BoB% | 23rd Bogey Avd. | 9th Long Iron Acc.

To state the obvious, it’s tough to not like a guy who has won this tournament each of the last two years it was played. Casey missed the cut at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago but if you convert the triple bogey he scored on the 8th hole in his opening round to par or even a standard bogey, he makes it into the weekend and likely plays some more solid golf. He bounced back in the second round and shot a 68 (-3) so I believe we can chalk his MC up to just an unfortunate day of golf. Prior to the RBC Heritage and his T26 at The Masters, Casey was red hot reeling in six consecutive worldwide finishes of T12 or better, including a win (Omega Dubai Desert Classic). Casey will likely be one of the more popular golfers on the board but he’s in play across the board, especially as a cash game anchor.

Corey Conners | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 3rd SG: T2G | 10th P4 AVG | 39th P5 BoB% | 13th Bogey Avd. | 32nd Long Iron Acc.

I’m not looking to get too cute in who I highlight up top. Conners is going to be another prominent selection out of this salary range, and for good reason. Checking in as the top ranked player in my Valspar tournament model, he leads the field with an average finish of 7th over his previous five starts and, understandably, has averaged the most fantasy points in that stretch as well. Conners has been rolling along all season and has posted seven top 10s in 17 starts. He doesn’t have extensive course history at Copperhead, but in his lone appearance here in 2018 he came away with a very respectable 16th place finish.

Mid-Priced Targets

Chris Kirk | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #16 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 10th SG: T2G | 7th P4 AVG | 67th P5 BoB% | 2nd Bogey Avd. |57th Long Iron Acc.

I know I’ve written him up for probably every event he has played in across the last couple of months, but I don’t see any reason to go away from Chris Kirk here. The course history isn’t spectacular by any means but he’s having a career year and I would expect him to maintain the momentum. Kirk has made the cut in 12 of his last 13 starts with five top 10s on the season, including three within his last five stroke play events. He’s been superb in his recent tee to green play and even though he may not be the most prolific birdie maker, his tendency to avoid bogeys should mesh well with Copperhead’s difficult nature.

Sam Horsfield | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: N/A | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: N/A

Horsfield hasn’t played in a PGA event since 2019, so he doesn’t qualify for any key stats in my player model. But he has been crushing it on the EURO Tour, finishing T8, T3, T15, and solo 4th across his four starts in 2021. On the EURO Tour, he ranks 4th in average score per round, 1st in birdies per round, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, and 2nd in Par 5 scoring. If he translates that scoring upside over into this week’s tournament, he could return excellent value. I wouldn’t call him a ‘safe’ play, especially since this isn’t exactly going to be a birdie-fest and Horsfield is also making his Copperhead debut. I still love him as a GPP target.

Low-Priced Targets

Doug Ghim | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #31 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 14th SG: T2G | 18th P4 AVG | 30th P5 BoB% | 28th Bogey Avd. |31st Long Iron Acc.

With Ghim, you’re getting some really nice cut making equity from a cheap golfer who has made 13/17 cuts on the year. He’s been one of the better ball strikers in this field and, for these salaries, he crushes the key stats ranking no lower than 31st in each metric. Ghim is another golfer making his Copperhead debut but he has the game to make things happen on a tricky course this week!

Chase Seiffert | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #42 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 49th SG: T2G | 20th P4 AVG | 51st P5 BoB% | 17th Bogey Avd. | 89th Long Iron Acc.

Seiffert is coming in on the heels of five consecutive made cuts while averaging a 24th place finish (10th best in the field) and 74.5 DKFP (11th best) per start in that span. A couple of those finishes have been against weaker fields but his T3 at The Honda Classic shows us that he is more than able to hang with more talented golfers at a difficult course. Seiffert has displayed some strong iron play this season and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys. He should be able to find success here in his Copperhead debut, and anything beyond a made cut would be acceptable value in my book but he is certainly capable of sneaking inside the top 25.

Quick Hits | Other Golfers to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.3k

Odds: 8/1 | CMR: #2 | GPP Preferred

Beats out Dustin Johnson as the odds on favorite to win this week and it makes complete sense. Probably wouldn’t look to go here in cash due to his price, but if you’re running MME this week, I believe you have to get some shares of JT.

Russell Henley | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #7 | Cash & GPP

The form seems to be back with Henley following back-to-back top 10s. Leads the field in bogey avoidance and Par 4 scoring. Landed a 9th place finish at Copperhead in 2017 and should be a good bet to push for another top 10 this go ‘round.

Charley Hoffman | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

The Hoffman hype train keeps rolling for at least another week! He’s averaging the 2nd most fantasy points per start over his last five events and brings a ton of course experience to the table -- though it is a bit spotty, with 8/13 made cuts at Copperhead.

Sam Burns | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #23 | GPP Preferred

Following a decent T39 at the RBC Heritage and a T4 at last week’s Zurich Classic (partnered with Billy Horschel), we could see Burns’ form coming back into shape. If his game is indeed back on track, he could be a nice low-owned GPP target out of the mid-range. Finished 12th and 30th in his first two appearances at Copperhead.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #24 | GPP Preferred

McCarthy is posting some very promising results as of late and comes into Copperhead where he finished T9 in 2019. His success almost always has to be carried by his putter and short game but, hey, whatever gets the job done I guess. I’d probably reserve him for tournaments but he has terrific upside at these salaries.

Luke List | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #57 | GPP Only

List could win this tournament just as easily as he could finish DFL but he has had some success on this course (T16 in 2018, T27 in 2017), and, for his potential, he’s worth about 10% exposure in GPPs. I believe that would pretty much double the field because I can’t imagine many people trusting him this week.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Paul Casey

Pretty straightforward pick here. While it would be unlikely that Casey pulls out a third consecutive win at this event, it isn’t the most implausible thought you could think of. Even if he doesn’t bring home the W, I feel like a top 10 is a very likely outcome and I’ll be more than happy with that at this point in the season.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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