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Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The Player Field & Course Preview

We saw a very tight finish in the final round of The PLAYERS last week where over a dozen guys threw their hat into the ring, coming within a couple shots of the lead throughout the day. Ultimately, and somewhat unsurprisingly, Rory McIlroy finally turned his stretch of five winless top 6 finishes into a victory and took home that record-setting $2.25 million winner’s purse. Must be nice!

Now we are three weeks away from The Masters and the PGA Tour continues the Florida Swing into the Valspar Championship held in Palm Harbor, FL at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead). This will be another full field event with 144 players where the typical 36-hole cut rule applies (top 70 & ties play the weekend). Of course, we will see a very steep drop off in top to bottom talent in comparison to last week but the Valspar Championship seems to have garnered the attention of more and more top players over the last few years. In total, 17 of the top 50 golfers in the world are teeing up this week and the field is headlined by the likes of world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, and defending champ Paul Casey. Many of these guys may be using this week as a tune-up of sorts in preparation for Augusta.

Copperhead plays long and difficult. It's a Par 71 set-up that extends 7,340 yards and features five (!) Par 3’s, all of which check in at 195+ yards. Golfers will need to do the majority of their scoring on the four Par 5’s and simply fight to survive the rest of the course near even par. Last year, Copperhead ranked as the sixth toughest course on TOUR (out of 51) and a single-digit winning score is very likely here. Personally, these tougher tracks are my favorite sort of courses to watch the professionals compete on. Accuracy is more important than distance here, as there are several doglegs, tight fairways, thick rough, 70+ bunkers, and water that comes into play on 11 of 18 holes. As a result of many golfers clubbing down off of the tee, around a third of approach shots will come in the 175-200 yard range. Add on to that the four Par 3’s that are all essentially 200+ yards in length and it’s easy to see that long iron accuracy can pay dividends here. Any regular readers of this newsletter know I tend to weigh SG: Approach very heavily basically every week. I’ll be switching that up to focus on golfers who simply excel tee-to-green this week. I’ll also be targeting guys who can take advantage of Par 5 scoring and those who excel in bogey avoidance. Let’s jump into a quick look at the weather, key stats to focus on, and my favorite plays for this week!

Weather ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage to be had for either group of golfers teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). The top priority in PGA DFS should be getting 6/6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line -- so if there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

For the first two rounds, temperatures should comfortably stay in the 60’s with plenty of sunshine. Of course, wind is always the biggest factor we look into though. Thursday’s opening round looks to start off with manageable sustained winds in the 8-10 mph range with minimal gusts. Heading into the afternoon, the sustained winds are forecasted to hover into a peskier range around 15 mph with gusts in the high teens. Friday should see sustained winds consistently throughout the day around 12-15 mph with gusts not straying too far from that range. So, while Friday should play pretty evenly for both waves in terms of wind conditions, golfer’s teeing off Thursday morning should see the more forgivable winds. Combine that with the fact that the course will play softer in the morning and I’m giving the AM/PM wave a marginal advantage.

Overall: It doesn’t seem to be enough of an advantage to where I would focus heavily on building my lineups around the AM/PM wave but if you’re on the fence between two guys and one tees off Thursday morning while the other tees off in the afternoon, consider giving the edge to the former. Also, for anyone making first round leader bets, I would expect to see the FRL come from the morning wave if the current forecast holds. As always, check the forecast when we get closer to the start of the event Thursday morning!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G) | 30%

2. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 25%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

4. Long Iron Accuracy - Proximity 175+ Yards | 15%

5. Driving Accuracy | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category. Also, course history and current form are always the top two "stats" to consider in any given week.

High-Priced Targets

Dustin Johnson (DK: $11.5k | FD: $12.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Normally I stray away from going in-depth on the most expensive golfer on the slate, as it can seem like an easy way out but when someone is a +550 favorite and comes in hot like DJ, that’s difficult to ignore. On a course that Johnson historically struggled with (by his standards) he carded his first career top 10 finish at TPC Sawgrass last week and led the field in SG: Approach. His last three events have resulted in 5th, 1st, and 9th place finishes. This is his first Valspar appearance, but with the way that this course plays, I’m not weighing course history super heavily to begin with. He ranks 1st in SG: T2G, 14th in P5 AVG, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 25th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 112th in Driving Accuracy. Sure, the driving accuracy stands out as an ugly stat but DJ is one of the few golfers I can forgive for showing up poorly in that category. The reason being is he typically plays very well from the rough. He led the PGA Tour in Rough Proximity in 2018 and is 23rd in that metric so far this season. It may be difficult to squeeze him into your cash lineups with the lack of consistent talent in the value price ranges but he’s clearly a top GPP option all the way.

Sergio Garcia (DK: $10.1k | FD: $11.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Garcia slipped down the leaderboard in round three of The PLAYERS last week with a 2-over par round of 74 but he had a nice final round bounce back, shooting a birdie-filled 67 -- ultimately finishing 22nd. He has his struggles in the short game but his overall ball striking has been elite and he really hasn’t had a poor showing on the PGA Tour yet this season, with finishes of 37th, 6th, 9th, and 22nd. He notched a 4th place finish at Copperhead last year and has made all six cuts in his career on this course. He ranks 2nd in SG: T2G, 3rd in P5 AVG, 21st in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 91st in Driving Accuracy. If he can simply improve a bit around the greens (92nd SG: ATG) then he could easily find himself among the final groups on Sunday. I have no problem with him as a cash lineup anchor or as a target for tournaments. He has 16:1 odds to win and ranks 1st in the player model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Jason Kokrak (DK: $8.6k | FD: $9.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Kokrak continues his steady play heading into this week and has made 10/10 cuts on the season with five top 20 finishes. While he has only made 4/8 cuts at Copperhead, all four of his made cuts have come in the last five years and include finishes of 8th (2018), 7th (2015), and 14th (2014) so his track record is better than most on this course. He fits the bill in some key stats as well, as he ranks 5th in SG: T2G, 92nd in P5 AVG, 20th in Bogey Avoidance, 29th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 47th in Driving Accuracy. Mark him down as a strong play in all formats and a solid bet to land a sixth top 20 finish. He has 40:1 odds to win and comes in at 5th in the player model.

Sungjae Im (DK: $7.7k | FD: $9.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

The South Korean PGA Tour rookie has played a ton of golf this season and has made 10/15 cuts on the way to three top 10 finishes already. Unfortunately, he missed the cut last week at The PLAYERS by one stroke but that should keep his ownership down a bit for a guy that has tremendous upside. This will be his Innisbrook debut but he brings plenty of appeal in some of the key stats for this week. He’s 8th in SG: T2G, 15th in P5 AVG, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 43rd in Long Iron Accuracy, and 42nd in Driving Accuracy. If it came down to stats alone, he’d appear to be a near lock, but you never want to put a ton of faith in a young golfer on a tough course. He likely stays as a GPP only play for me but his 50:1 odds caught my eye and he lands at 45th in the player model.

Low-Priced Targets

Trey Mullinax (DK: $7.1k | FD: $8.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Mullinax was a punt play I was pretty high on last week when he was the rock bottom $6k minimum on DraftKings and had reeled off seven consecutive made cuts heading into TPC Sawgrass. Sadly, he was another guy who fell just one stroke short of making the weekend cut. He didn’t play poorly by any stretch, he simply struggled to card any birdies in his second round (after shooting a solid three-under opening round 69). In a substantially weaker field for this week, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with Mullinax as a cash-viable value play. He ranks 22nd in SG: T2G, 21st in P5 AVG, 16th in Bogey Avoidance, 11th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 123rd in Driving Accuracy. He is more of a prototypical bomber, as his 306.1 yards off the tee over the last month ranks 14th in the field, which is why his driving accuracy suffers. However, he’s an overall strong course fit for Copperhead, evidenced by his 8th place finish here last year. Hopefully that missed cut at The PLAYERS doesn't linger for him mentally because he can return value at these salaries. He’s a 125:1 long shot to win but grades out at 11th in the player model.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK: $6.7k | FD: $7.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Here’s your ~3% owned tournament play. Lee is a relative unknown to most American golf fans but he enters into this week with some strong form after making three consecutive cuts -- most recently a 7th place finish at The Honda Classic. He has showcased some very strong iron play during his recent run into form, as he led the field in SG: Approach in February’s Genesis Open and was 9th in the field in SG: Approach on his way to that top 10 finish at The Honda Classic. There’s plenty of risk with a guy who has only made 6/13 cuts on the season and he has never played at Innisbrook but the clear hope here is to ride the recent form. The extended statistics don’t make him look extremely appealing but, of course, that’s what makes him more of an upside GPP play. He’s 41st in SG: T2G, 114th in P5 AVG, 75th in Bogey Avoidance, 87th in Long Iron Accuracy, and 32nd in Driving Accuracy. Plenty of guys priced around him carry considerably less upside in my opinion, so he’s worth a shot in certain lineup builds!

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Webb Simpson (DK: $10.4k | FD: $10.7k) | Cash & GPP | His already consistent overall play is trending upwards. 10th in SG: T2G, 13th in P5 AVG, and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance. Finished 8th place at the Valspar last year and should be another great guy to anchor cash builds.

- Jim Furyk (DK: $9.2k | FD: $10k) | Cash & GPP | Fairways and greens all day! 12th in SG: T2G, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 1st in Driving Accuracy. Has never missed a cut in nine tries at Copperhead and comes in off of a solo second place finish last week. I'd fire him up with a lot of confidence.

Mid-Priced

- Ryan Moore (DK: $8.7k | FD: $8.9k) | Cash & GPP | Great FanDuel value! He caught the spotlight after his ace on No. 17 last week and is another guy who should consistently find a ton of fairways and stay out of too much trouble. Missed the cut here last year but had back-to-back top five finishes in 2015/2016.

- Adam Hadwin (DK: $8.3k | $9.8k) | GPP Preferred | The form isn’t fantastic at the moment but that should keep people away from him. Won this event in 2017 and finished 12th last year. Should find plenty of fairways and is 10th in the field in P5 AVG.

Low-Priced

- Sung Kang (DK: $7.2k | FD: $7.9k) | Cash & GPP | Another great value on FanDuel but worthy of consideration on DraftKings as well. Has made the cut in 7 of his last 8 starts and had a 2nd place finish here in 2016. Very capable of sneaking in another top 10 finish.

- Martin Trainer (DK: $6.4k | FD: $8.1k) | GPP Preferred | Definitely a bit of a Hail Mary here but he’s made 4 of his last 5 cuts and has been very strong on Par 5’s (7th in P5 AVG). He’s a bomber that can struggle finding fairways but he has the ability to pay off these salaries under the right circumstances. He could also come in at sub 2% ownership.

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That will do it for our Valspar Championship preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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