Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

The 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open ⛳️

The Player Field & Tournament Course Preview

The PGA Tour has its sights set towards the Waste Management Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Arizona this week. Have your party hats on because this one gets rowdy! There are gigantic crowds at every hole, especially on the weekends, which is headlined by the notorious Par 3, 16th hole that is surrounded by stadium seating and carries an atmosphere similar to that of an intense football game with onlookers hyped up for seemingly every high pressure swing or putt. Much to my relief personally, this week golfers will compete on just one course, TPC Scottsdale, unlike the last couple weeks where a multi-course rotation was in play. This is also a strong field we’ll be looking at as seven of the top 20 and 29 of the top 60 golfers in the world are on site for the WMPO.

TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 layout that extends 7,266 yards and features larger-than-average Bermuda greens. The course ranked as the 32nd most difficult (out of 51) in 2018 and has an average winning score of 16-under over the last five years. TPC Scottsdale is a pretty forgiving course with fairly playable rough so bombers can have a slight advantage so long as they avoid landing in one of the 68 bunkers. That said, golfers with great approach shots will reign supreme, especially those who excel in the 150-175 yard range as that will be the most common length guys will be taking their second shot from. This being a Par 71 set-up, there are only three Par 5’s but about a third of birdies will come from these holes, so golfers will absolutely need to go low at these opportunistic parts of the course. Now let’s get a look at the weather, the key stats to focus on, players to target and a few early week betting numbers that I’m liking!

Weather ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage to be had for either group of golfers teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave).

This week the weather looks fairly consistent through the first two rounds. Temperatures will be in the 60's for much of the day and most importantly the winds should remain in the single digits with no extreme gusts on the initial outlook. Be sure to check the latest forecast for Scottsdale, Arizona later in the week but right now, it doesn’t seem like either wave has an advantage.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 20%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 10%

6. Proximity 150-175 Yards | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High-Priced Targets

Jon Rahm (DK: $11.5k | FD: $12.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Rahm is rolling with three straight top 10’s to start the year and now he returns to the state of Arizona where he attended college at ASU. He’s done well here in all three of his appearances with finishes of 11th in 2018, 16th in 2017 and 5th in 2015 and he’ll certainly have the crowds behind him cheering him on. Statistically, he should be set to dominate. In the field, he ranks 41st in SG: App, 7th in BoB%, 6th in P4 AVG, 8th in P5 BoB%, 3rd in SG: OTT and 26th in Proximity 150-175 yards. He’s the odds on favorite to win this week at 7:1 and is easily the top ranked golfer in my personal player model. It’d likely be a struggle to make a safe cash lineup with him but he’s clearly a top option for GPP builds.

Matt Kuchar (DK: $9.2k | FD: $10.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Get ready to hear plenty of “Kuuuuuuuch!” roars from the crowds this week because all signs point to him teeing off in one of the last few groups on Sunday. He has two wins in his last three starts and is a perfect 6/6 cuts made at TPC Scottsdale which includes 5th and 9th place finishes over the last two years. In this field, Kuchar is 18th in SG: App, 12th in BoB%, 3rd in P4 AVG, 24th in P5 BoB%, 69th in SG: OTT, and 9th in Proximity 150-175 yards. Much like Woodland and Finau last week, Kuchar is likely to be a very popular option but this is some chalk I’ll happily take (along with another guy I’ll mention in the “quick hits” section below). Kuch is a 25/1 favorite and stands out at 2nd in my player model just behind Rahm.

Mid-Priced Targets

Byeong Hun-An (DK: $8.6k | FD: $9.2k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Better known among DFS players and other golf fans as “Bennie An,” he’ll be looking to make his 2019 debut on American soil this week. That doesn’t mean he’s coming in cold after carding a 12th place finish in the Dubai Desert Classic last week. An has finished well in both of his appearances at TPC Scottsdale with a 23rd place finish last year and a 6th place in 2017. An is a great ball striker and has all the right tools in his bag to do well -- he’s the 10th ranked player in my model. An is also very undervalued on FanDuel as the 40th most expensive golfer (16th in DraftKings). He checks in at 20th in SG: App, 29th in BoB%, 66th in P4 AVG, 29th in P5 BoB%, 14th in SG: OTT, and 27th in Proximity 150-175 yards. The fact that he’s been off the radar for many American golf fans may keep his ownership down but I’m liking him as a mid-tier option in all formats this week.

Sungjae Im (DK: $7.3k | FD: $9k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Dropping down to the lowest area of where I’d consider the “mid-range” of pricing to be, I’m going with another South Korean in Im. The PGA Tour rookie is making his TPC Scottsdale debut but has “Im”-pressed so far this season, making 7/9 cuts including all three in 2019 with finishes of 16th, 12th and 52nd most recently. His 52nd place finish in the Farmers Insurance Open doesn’t stand out but he shot even par or better in all four rounds and simply had some struggles with the flat stick, finishing outside the top 60 in SG: Putting. I often mention that putting stats are by far the most volatile in golf and a player can easily bounce back with a good to great week on the greens after having a poor recent performance (or vice versa). Im represents some really solid “Vegas value” in this price range and you’ll find that his 80:1 odds to win are difficult to be bested by most others priced around him. He’s also 3rd in my key stat rankings -- 42nd in SG: App, 6th in BoB%, 7th in P4 AVG, 10th in P5 BoB%, 4th in SG: OTT, and 5th in Proximity 150-175 yards. If he can handle the raucous environment as a young golfer, I think he’s viable in all formats and can help you squeeze in some more “stud” names in lineups.

Low-Priced Targets

Lucas Glover (DK: $7.2k | FD: $9.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Unless they know something I don’t, I’m not sure what DraftKings was thinking with this pricing, as Glover is the 46th most expensive golfer (26th on FanDuel) on the board. In all five events Glover has competed in this season, he has yet to finish worse than 17th! He also brings solid course history to the table, as he has made the cut in nine of 11 appearances at TPC Scottsdale. He’s 36th in SG: App, 54th in BoB%, 12th in P4 AVG, 35th in P5 BoB%, 13th in SG: OTT, and 99th in Proximity 150-175 yards. Glover seems like another nice and cheap cash game piece for DraftKings players but the recent form would seem to make him viable for FanDuel as well -- though perhaps more for GPPs.

Matthew Wolff (DK: $6k | FD: $7k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If you want the definition of a GPP “punt play” well here you have it. Wolff is an 18-year-old collegiate player who is competing this week on a sponsor invitation. He is a member of the reigning 2018 Oklahoma State NCAA championship team. Wolff has won three consecutive college events and had a 4th place finish a couple weeks ago in the Australian Master of the Amateurs tournament. Obviously, he doesn’t qualify for any PGA stats that I can give you but he is the stone cold minimum on both sites and can provide you with some major salary leverage to make some very interesting high-upside GPP lineups. If he simply makes the cut, you’ve got instant value. But don’t be surprised if Wolff sneaks up higher on the leaderboard than expected should he make the weekend. From everything I’ve read, this kid can play.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $10.7k | FD: $11.8k) | Cash & GPP | Course horse anyone? Before having to withdraw last year, his previous four finishes at TPC Scottsdale are as follows: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th. After carding a 3rd place finish last week, the “Hidekibot” may be fully back in form looking to dominate.

- Xander Schauffele (DK: $10.1k | FD: $11.2k) | Cash & GPP | The X-Man should be a nice pivot off of the other bigger names at the top and carries just as much upside. Finished 17th in his debut here last year.

- Phil Mickelson (DK: $9.3k | FD: $11.1k) | Cash & GPP | Phil was the other guy I alluded to in Kuchar’s section that will be popular but I’m all over. Currently, I’m really liking pairing him with Kuch for cash builds. Phil is 11/14 cuts made here with five top 10s & two wins. Think he may come in with something to prove after getting surpassed by Adam Long in the Sunday round at the Desert Classic.

Mid-Priced

- Austin Cook (DK: $7.9k | FD: $9.7k) | Cash & GPP | It's his first start of 2019 but finished 31st last year in his WMPO debut. Made 24/29 cuts in his rookie season. He’s 16th in SG: App, 25th in P4 AVG and 23rd in P5 BoB%. Should score well this week.

- Talor Gooch (DK: $7.5k | FD: $8.7k) | GPP Only | Back-to-back top 5 finishes and his DFS prices remain low. Hasn’t played here before but never a bad idea to ride the super hot form.

Low-Priced

- Brian Gay (DK: $6.7k | FD: $9.3k) | DK Only Cash & GPP | Probably too pricey on FD to consider but missed his first cut of the season at the Desert Classic after going 6/6. He’s 12/13 cuts made at TPC Scottsdale with a 9th place finish last year. The desert altitude should help his relatively short distance off the tee.

- Anders Albertson (DK: $6.3k | FD: $7.9k) | GPP Only | He let me down with a missed cut last week but as a result, his DFS salaries have taken a nose dive. I simply won’t trust him for cash builds for the time being but he still grades out 34th overall in my player model -- far and away better than anyone around him in price.

Weekly Bets

This is a new addition so feel free to let me know if it should stick around or not. I’ll simply run through what I’m liking from a betting perspective each week. Golf betting is a bit risky, especially when it comes to betting outright winners. So if you're new to it, use caution! Hitting an outright winner can result in very nice profits, however. All outright, first round leader, top 5 and top 10 bets are one unit each. Units on tournament match-up bets are further specified. All odds are from Bovada as of Tuesday afternoon.

We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our Waste Management Phoenix Open preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!