Written by Ryan Humphries

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour sets up to tee off at TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Arizona. This is typically one of the most rowdy events on Tour, so expect to see droves of emotionally charged fans -- especially in the wake of this week’s heavyhearted events. There are gigantic crowds at every hole and over 200,000 patrons are expected to be in attendance during the weekend rounds. This course is headlined by the notorious Par 3, 16th hole that is surrounded by stadium seating and carries an atmosphere similar to that of an intense football game with onlookers hyped up for seemingly every high pressure swing or putt. Unlike the last couple of events, only one course will fall into play this week. This is also a high strength field, with nine of the top 25, and 41 of the top 100 players in the world in attendance. With just a single course rotation and a bit less daylight available at this time of the year, this event is capped at 132 golfers with the standard cut rule in play -- the top 65 players (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. The timing of the WMPO allows it to wrap up just ahead of the Super Bowl kickoff in order to give fans time to clear out and go watch the big game.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 layout that extends 7,266 yards and features larger-than-average Bermuda greens which run fast, but play easier than the Poa Annua greens which golfers have dealt with in recent weeks. The course ranked as the 24th most difficult (out of 48) in 2019 and has an average winning score of 16-under over the last five years. TPC Scottsdale is a pretty forgiving course with fairly playable rough, so bombers can have a slight advantage so long as they avoid landing in one of the 68 bunkers or various water hazards. Several holes offer ample scoring opportunities but in very much a “risk vs. reward” manner. That said, golfers with great approach shots will reign supreme, especially those who excel in the 150-175 yard range, as that will be the most common length guys will be taking their second shots from. This being a Par 71 set-up, there are only three Par 5’s but about a third of birdies will come from these three holes, so golfers will absolutely need to go low at these opportunistic parts of the course. Now let’s get a look at the weather, the key stats to focus on, and some players to target for the WMPO!

Weather ⛅

Very easy weather breakdown for this week. Cool temps, plenty of sunshine, no rain in sight and, most importantly, winds should not really be a factor as they should stay below 10 mph for pretty much the entire event. No wave advantage to be had but, as always, try to run a final weather check Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 20%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 10%

6. Proximity 150-175 Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.7k

Vegas: 14/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rank: ★★★★☆

It’s difficult to find a safer investment than the ever-reliable Webb Simpson. He’s finished T7 or better in all three of his full field events this season and has just one missed cut in his last 34 starts. He is peak consistency right now. He also has a very strong track record at TPC Scottsdale, with 7/9 made cuts alongside four top 10 finishes (including a runner-up finish in 2017 after losing in a playoff). He also shines bright on paper. In this field, Webb ranks 1st in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 1st in P4 AVG, 1st in P5 BoB%, and 64th in SG: OTT. The only real blemish he has is a poor ranking in that Proximity 150-175 yard range (ranks 94th in field) but the good far outweighs the bad here, clearly. I love the idea of starting cash builds with Simpson. The only reason he isn’t a five star GPP play for me is the likelihood of high ownership and if he finishes outside of the top 10-15 then he’d turn out to be a smart fade in tournaments.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11k

Vegas: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #7

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rank: ★★★★★

I’m not overly trusting of DeChambeau in cash game builds this week but among the top dozen or so priced players, I expect his ownership to be on the lower side, which makes him a prime GPP candidate. We haven’t seen DeChambeau compete on US soil yet this calendar year so his recent form is a bit up in the air. Two weeks ago he missed the cut on the EURO Tour at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship but followed that up with a T8 at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic last week, a result that could have been much better were it not for a final round of 76. His course history is short but promising. DeChambeau finished 5th here in his lone TPC Scottsdale appearance in 2018. He also intrigues me on paper, ranking 42nd in SG: App, 7th in BoB%, 8th in P4 AVG, 63rd in P5 BoB%, 28th in SG: OTT, and 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards. On a rowdy risk/reward course, DeChambeau is one of my favorite risk/reward golfers in this price range.

Mid-Priced Targets

Sungjae Im | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 30/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rank: ★★★★☆

Sungjae Im is rapidly becoming the embodiment of a PGA Tour grinder. He plays so many events, but he finds plenty of success along the way. Im is a perfect 9/9 on made cuts this season with just one MC across his last 21 worldwide starts. In 14 of those 21 starts, Im has finished T21 or better. In his WMPO debut last year he walked away with a strong 7th place finish. The guy is simply rock solid nearly every week. He ranks 27th in SG: App, 5th in BoB%, 13th in P4 AVG, 22nd in P5 BoB%, 20th in SG: OTT, and 25th in Proximity 150-175 yards. No weaknesses to be found. In cash, I love the idea of starting my build with Simpson and Im as the two anchors. Those two guys just have such a low missed cut rate and have shown nice success at TPC Scottsdale.

Corey Conners | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #27

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rank: ★★★★☆

I’m slightly hesitant on Conners for a couple reasons. The first being he has no course history at TPC Scottsdale. The second being you can never rely on his putter (93rd in SG: Putting). However, he tends to make up so much ground tee-to-green that he can afford a couple 3-putts every now and again. He also rides into Arizona in terrific form, having made 11 of his last 12 cuts, including six straight which have all been top 20 results. He ranks 15th in SG: App, 36th in BoB%, 71st in P4 AVG, 47th in P5 BoB%, and 8th in SG: OTT. If he can manage to get a few extra putts to fall and simply stay slightly above the field in SG: Putting this week, he could easily land a top 10 finish… perhaps even ‘ship this thing.

Low-Priced Targets

Adam Hadwin | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This will be the first time we see Hadwin this calendar year but to date he has made all five cuts on the season and has played his way into the weekend four straight years at the WMPO, highlighted by finishes of 12th (2017) and 17th (2016). He sets up very nicely on paper, ranking 10th in SG: App, 24th in BoB%, 20th in P4 AVG, 81st in P5 BoB%, 30th in SG: OTT, and 10th in Proximity 150-175 yards. He should be coming into this week well-rested and as long as he can score decently well on these three Par 5s, he should excel elsewhere on the course. He’s a really solid price vs. upside play.

Matt Every | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k

Vegas: 300/1 | Custom Model Rank: #44

Cash Rating: ★☆☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Let’s lace up the soccer cleat and go punting, shall we? The last time we saw Every was at The American Express, where he played well enough to make it to the weekend before shooting a final round 82. He didn’t disclose any official injury but the thinking is that he may have suffered a minor issue, as he went on to withdraw ahead of last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. Regardless, he is listed in the field for this week, so perhaps the problem is behind him. He has flashed success at TPC Scottsdale, making 4/7 cuts with two top 10s. His best key stats include ranking 9th in BoB%, 17th in SG: App, 26th in P4 AVG, and 28th in Proximity 150-175 yards. I wouldn’t let him sniff my cash game lineups in case his ‘undisclosed’ issue carries into this week. But for $100 above minimum salary on both sites, he’s looked good enough at times this year and has enough course history upside to keep him in consideration for stars and scrubs builds.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.4k, FD: $12.1k

Vegas: 6.5/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Only

The Arizona State alum will certainly be a crowd favorite this week. He has put on a great showing every time he has teed it up at TPC Scottsdale, making 4/4 cuts with a 10th place average finish. Probably too pricey for cash games but an obvious choice in tournaments.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #20 | Cash & GPP

Making his WMPO debut but it’s difficult to find more consistent golfers going right now. 7/7 cuts made this year with an average finish of 22nd. Possesses world class irons and no standout weaknesses.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #17 | GPP Preferred

Welp, Big Scottie let us down at the FIO so I’ll probably recommend him only for tournaments this week, but he’s fully capable of a quick bounce-back performance in his course debut. Ranks 3rd in overall BoB%.

Russell Knox | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.4k

Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

He’s not posting very flashy results but the form is solid after making eight straight cuts and he landed a 10th place finish at TPC Scottsdale last season. Excellent iron player who excels on Par 4s and doesn’t make very many bogeys.

Byeong Hun An | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

After a couple of down weeks, this is a very strong bounce-back spot for Benny An. He putts much better on fast greens like the ones this week and has made 3/3 cuts at TPC Scottsdale with an average finish of 16th. I’m confident enough in him to roll him out in all formats.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k

Vegas: 200/1 | CMR: #39 | GPP Only

Decent upside punt play with the Barnrat here after he landed a T33 at the WMPO in 2019. Shot four straight rounds of 69 in his lone 2019-20 PGA event (CJ Cup) back in October. Finished T42 in Abu Dhabi a couple weeks ago on the EURO Tour, which was highlighted by a third round shooting 65. He’s a bit streaky but these risk/reward type of courses are where I like to roll him out (in GPPs).

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That will do it for our Waste Management Phoenix Open preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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