By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

After getting canceled in 2020 due to COVID, the PGA Tour returns to the iconic Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC to tee it up for the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship. We’re officially just two weeks away from the PGA Championship. With guys either looking to keep their game in form or improve it, we’ll see a pretty strong field, particularly at the top. The field includes 16 of the top 30 ranked golfers in the world as well as 44 of the top 100. This is a full field event with 156 golfers and the traditional 36-hole cut rule applies -- the top 65 players (including ties) will move on to compete over the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Quail Hollow underwent a significant renovation in 2017 when it played host to the PGA Championship. It was converted from a Par 72 to a Par 71 and some length was added to the point where it can now play as long as 7,600 yards, depending on pin location. This makes it one of the longest courses on the PGA circuit. This also makes course history a little murky since we’ve only seen golfers compete on the post-renovated course three times (including the 2017 PGA Championship). Reportedly, the course won’t play to the same level of difficulty as it did for the PGA Championship but this will be far from a cakewalk. In 2018 and 2019, only six golfers combined cracked a double-digit score under par.

The treelined fairways at Quail Hollow are narrow to average in width and can be extremely hard to hit. There aren’t very many fairway bunkers or water hazards, so missing off the tee isn’t necessarily a death sentence but the thick two inch rough won’t be very easy to hit out of either. Due to the length of the new layout, a long driver and strength off the tee can be a major plus this week so I’m not against the idea of leaning towards bombers here. If a player doesn’t average a driving distance above, let’s say, 295 yards, I personally won’t be putting too much stock in them unless they stand out in a major way in basically every other metric that I’ll be weighing. That may eliminate upwards of half the field, but I’m looking for winners and high finishers who can meet the demands that Quail Hollow calls for. The shorter hitters are simply up against the odds on this course.

Aside from hitting it long, every golfer will need to do most of their scoring on the course’s three Par 5s – that is a necessity. Players who succeed on the 11 Par 4s by staying close to par on those holes, with the occasional birdie here and there, will be the ones who climb the leaderboard. These greens are also very fast, multi-tiered, and heavily undulated. Even when faced with shorter approach lengths, there is no guarantee that a decent shot will stick on these greens, so gaining strokes around the green will play a key role in succeeding as well. This may be one of the only weeks where “Strokes Gained: Approach” won’t make my key stats. Approach shots are obviously always important, but a bit less so this week with all of the other course factors in play. However, I will be weighing approach shots in a roundabout way. Over half of approach shots will be coming from 175+ yards out, even for golfers with huge drivers, so I’ll certainly be looking for some premiere long iron players. With all of that covered, let’s get a look at the weather, some key stats I am weighing, and some golfers to consider!

Weather ⛅

Not much rain in the forecast with comfortable spring time temps.

Thursday: Sustained winds in the single digits all day but could see some 20 mph gusts early in the A.M.

Friday: Calm conditions early in the morning with a chance of light rain. Winds pick up to about 15 mph sustained around 11 a.m. with 20 mph gusts in the afternoon.

Weekend: Relatively manageable sustained winds most of the weekend but gusty conditions could bring bursts of 20-30 mph winds throughout the weekend -- particularly on Sunday afternoon. Could make for an interesting finish!

Verdict: If the current forecast holds, the PM/AM wave would appear to have a slight wind advantage, especially the guys who tee off very early on Friday. As always, run a final weather check on Wednesday night before making any final decisions!

Wells Fargo Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 20%

2. Driving Distance | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

5. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175-200 Yards, Prox. 200+ Yards) | 15%

6. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Jon Rahm | DK: $10.8k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 11/1 | CMR: #11 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 2nd SG: OTT | 14th Driv. Dist. | 3rd P4 AVG | 16th SG: ATG | 7th Long Iron Acc. | 7th P5 BoB%

Unless my own key stats for this course are way out of line, Jon Rahm is the sort of golfer who should excel on a track like Quail Hollow. In the “key stats only” model he ranks #1 overall. He has never played here before, but Rahm’s ability to drive the ball both long and straight along with possessing exceptional long iron play with plenty of creativity around the greens are all desirable characteristics that should fit this course like a glove. He has notched a top 10 finish in seven of his last ten starts, hasn’t missed a cut all season (no jinx, no jinx), and should simply bring a great high floor + ceiling combination to the table.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 3rd SG: OTT | 43rd Driv. Dist. | 12th P4 AVG | 53rd SG: ATG | 5th Long Iron Acc. | 6th P5 BoB%

Hovland is another golfer whose lack of course history at Quail Hollow bumps him down a smidge in my CMR rankings but, as mentioned in the course breakdown, I’m not putting very much emphasis on course history this week. I’m personally only allocating a 10% weight on CH (normally it’s in the 20-30% range) and instead of looking at guys who are more “course fits” than anything. Hovland is another one of those course fits in a similar vein as Rahm. He isn’t someone who could be categorized as a ‘bomber’ but he does routinely drive the ball about 300-320 yards off the tee and possesses great long iron play. Hovland ranked 3rd in the field last week in strokes gained tee to green and following a missed cut at The Players, he appears to be rounding back into the elite form we saw him show off back in January/February.

Mid-Priced Targets

Cameron Tringale | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #17 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 30th SG: OTT | 50th Driv. Dist. | 22nd P4 AVG | 73rd SG: ATG | 71st Long Iron Acc. | 19th P5 BoB%

Tringale isn’t a well-known name among more casual golf fans but for anyone who has been involved in PGA DFS the last couple of seasons, he has been a strong source of both consistency, value, and upside. Tringale has recorded just one missed cut in his last 12 starts (The Players) and has notched seven top 20s and four top 10s in that span -- including three consecutive top 15 finishes heading into the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s been an efficient tee to green player, and ranked 9th in the field in that category on his way to a T3 finish at the Valspar last week. The mid-range is a little tricky this week and we’re not used to paying quite this much for Tringale in DFS formats, but he’s worth strong consideration as he steps in to take on Quail Hollow.

Rickie Fowler | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #49 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 44th SG: OTT | 47th Driv. Dist. |126th P4 AVG | 8th SG: ATG | 101st Long Iron Acc. | 109th P5 BoB%

Rickie’s swing hasn’t been right in quite some time now and he’s been massively under-performing in the majority of starts this season. He’s made only 10/15 cuts on the year, which honestly isn’t horrible, but he hasn’t recorded even a top 15 finish since the St. Jude Invitational last August. We haven’t seen Rickie compete in a month, but he did land a promising T17 finish in his most previous start at the Valero Texas Open while gaining strokes in every major tee to green category. He returns to Quail Hollow where he has made 8/8 cuts with four top 10s and a win back in 2012. Since the course renovations, he placed T21 (2018) and T4 (2019). If his game is actually trending back in the right direction, it makes sense to get some GPP exposure to him. Particularly at a course where he has experienced past success. Again, course history isn’t a major factor for me this week, but it never hurts for a golfer to be in familiar territory where they’ve experienced plenty of past success.

Low-Priced Targets

Matt Jones | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 65th SG: OTT | 27th Driv. Dist. | 21st P4 AVG | 24th SG: ATG | 120th Long Iron Acc. |24th P5 BoB%

Jones’ salaries put him on the highest end of what I would consider being a “value play” but he ranks out very well in my model to be priced in this range and he should provide some strong potential at an affordable price tag this week. He enters off of a win at The Honda Classic and a solid T26 at The Masters so he’s shown that he can hang on tough courses recently. He has also made 14/17 cuts on the season and 5/8 cuts at Quail Hollow. He provides good distance off the tee and while his long iron play may not be where I’d like it to be, he still manages to score well on Par 4s and Par 5s while also being efficient around the greens.

Joseph Bramlett | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k

Odds: 500/1 | CMR: #28 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 66th SG: OTT | 17th Driv. Dist. | 86th P4 AVG | 7th SG: ATG | 40th Long Iron Acc. | 78th P5 BoB%

Big time long shot here but Bramlett is someone who ranks out surprisingly well despite being basically minimum salary on both sites. He has made six of his last seven cuts with a couple of top 20s thrown into the mix. Bramlett also has a big driver (312.2 yards/drive this season) and has shown plenty of creativity around the greens. If he simply makes the cut and pushes for a finish somewhere in the top 30-40, that would be a tremendous value.

Quick Hits | Other Golfers to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.3k

Odds: 11/1 | CMR: #2 | GPP Preferred

Probably a good week to get JT at lower-than-usual ownership. “Only” finished T13 last week but led the field in SG: T2G. He simply had an awful week with the putter (-6.45 SG: P), which isn’t an uncommon thing for Thomas to occasionally struggle with. He has bounced back plenty of times after one bad week with the flat stick.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

It’s a week where a big driver is needed so… DeChambeau is obviously in play. Finished 4th here in 2018 and could easily cash in on a win this week.

Corey Conners | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

Was popular last week and turned in a ‘disappointing’ T21, so maybe he’ll fly under the radar at Quail Hollow. The Canadian has been ultra-reliable this season and I wouldn’t hesitate to go back to him here, especially with how much he is crushing it tee to green.

Brian Harman | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #14 | Cash & GPP

15/16 cuts made on the season and enters with three straight top 15s. Only one missed cut at Quail Hollow in seven starts. Harman just profiles really well and he should fall well within consideration for your player pool.

Emiliano Grillo | $8.1k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #8 | GPP Preferred

Grillo did the 'Grillo thing' last week when he looked like he was priming himself for a podium finish… then just tanked it in round two to miss the cut by one stroke. Eh, whatever. One bad round of golf. It happens. He had looked excellent in many previous events heading into the Valspar, so throw him some GPP exposure and see if he connects four strong rounds together again.

Stewart Cink | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #26 | Cash & GPP

Cink may be pushing close to 50-years-old but he still swings a fairly big driver (310.9 yards/drive, ranks 21st in the field) and comes in with a T19, T12, and a victory over his last three starts. Most of his success at Quail Hollow came prior to the renovations, but he should still be very comfortable here and is in excellent form.

Tom Lewis | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #38 | GPP Preferred

Good distance off the tee (26th in Driv. Dist.) and has some solid long irons (ranks 57th) as well. Not a bad dart throw.

Justin Suh | DK; $6.1k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #42 | GPP Preferred

A late addition to the field but I love him as a GPP punt, especially at $100 above min. salary on DK. Possesses solid irons and has made 5/6 cuts on the PGA Tour this season.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Bryson DeChambeau

To repeat: it's a week where a big driver is highly preferred and no one on Tour drives it further than DeChambeau. This man is probably my least favorite golfer to root for, which is maybe why I haven't used him in OAD yet, but I won't overthink it this week. Do your thing, Bryson (I say, reluctantly).

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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