Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

Hello again golf fans! We are back after a one week break from stroke-play events and now we get set for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club! We’re just two weeks away from the second Major of the year, the PGA Championship. With guys either looking to keep their game in form or improve it, we’ll see a pretty strong field, particularly at the top. The field includes ten of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world as well as twenty of the top 60. This is a full field event with 156 golfers and the traditional 36-hole cut rule applies where the top 70 (and ties) will move on to compete over the weekend.

Quail Hollow is located in Charlotte, NC and underwent several renovations when it was host to the PGA Championship in 2017 (the Wells Fargo Championship was hosted at Eagle Point GC for that year). Watch the video linked below (1m50s) to see some of these changes. The course was changed from a Par 72 to a Par 71 that now extends a lengthy 7,554 yards which has resulted in it being one of the longer venues on TOUR. We should expect this course to play very difficult -- borderline Major level difficult. Last year, after the course facelift, Quail Hollow graded out as the fifth toughest course (out of 51) playing at an average of +1.132 strokes over par. 

Considering how much the course has changed, I’ll be weighing course history (prior to 2017) lighter than usual this week and will primarily be referring to last year’s Wells Fargo Championship and 2017’s PGA Championship results. Due to the length of the new layout, a long driver and strength off the tee will be essential to success this week. Golfers would need to be near perfect with their long irons if they can’t launch it off the tee upwards of 300 yards (or preferably more). Since a long drive is more ‘repeatable’ for a capable player to accomplish more often than it is for a player that relies on hitting precise long irons to consistently accomplish, I’ll absolutely lean towards bombers this week. If a player doesn’t average a driving distance above 295 yards, I personally won’t put too much stock in them unless they stand out in a major way in basically every other aspect that I’ll be weighing. That may eliminate upwards of 60% of the field, but I’m looking for winners and high finishers -- with very few exceptions, the shorter hitters are just up against the odds on this course.

Aside from hitting it long, every golfer will need to do most of their scoring on the course’s three Par 5’s -- that is a necessity. Players who succeed on the 11 Par 4’s by staying close to par on those holes, with the occasional birdie here and there, will be the ones who climb the leaderboard. These greens are also very fast and the longest of hitters will not be in the best position for many of their third and fourth shots, so gaining strokes around the green will play a role in succeeding as well. This may be the first week where “Strokes Gained: Approach” won’t make my key stats. Approach shots are obviously always important, but a bit less so this week with all of the other course factors. Now, sorry for the longer-than-usual intro. Hopefully I haven’t lost anyone (or I suppose people may have just scrolled right on past all of this, hah). Let’s jump into a look at the weather, the full list of key stats, and my favorite picks for this week!

Weather ⛅

We’ll get a break from worrying about windy conditions, as sustained winds in Charlotte, NC are projected to stay below 10 mph for the entirety of the first two rounds with gusts rarely hitting double digit speeds. Friday may have a threat of some scattered thunderstorms that may cause some stoppages in play but perhaps they adjust tee times ahead of the second round to account for this. Neither wave stands out as having an advantage given the current forecast. As always, check the latest forecast closer to Thursday, which I will link to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 25%

2. Driving Distance | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 20%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Rickie Fowler (DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.6k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Quail Hollow is home to Rickie’s first PGA Tour win back in 2012. That 'first win' venue is special to any professional golfer and he’s played well here in the two years since the course renovations: 21st last year and 5th at the 2017 PGA Championship. Fowler’s form has been strong for much of this season, making 11/11 cuts with five top 10’s, a win at the Phoenix Open, and enters this week off of a 9th place finish at The Masters. Looking at the stats, he should be poised for another high finish. He ranks 37th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Driving Distance, 2nd in P4 AVG, 13th in P5 BoB%, and 56th in SG: ATG. Being a prolific Par 4 scorer and one of the best putters in the field (5th in SG: Putting) should help him edge out the stud golfers who may be a bit longer off the tee or a bit better around the greens. He’s perhaps a tad too expensive for cash games this week but he’s ideal for GPP builds. His 11:1 odds are tied for the third best in the field and he ranks 6th in my tournament model.

Tony Finau (DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

As many may remember, Finau was in the running for the green jacket at The Masters three weeks ago where he eventually finished 5th. He’s made the cut at Quail Hollow both times since the redesign with a 21st place finish last year and 44th in 2017 and he has just one missed cut over his last 24 worldwide events. His game is about as suited for this course as it could get. Finau ranks 12th in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 16th in P4 AVG, 5th in P5 BoB%, and 70th in SG: ATG. My concerns over his lack of elite play around the greens is mitigated quite a bit due to him being one of the best players in this field with his long irons from 175+ yards out. I expect this to be his best career finish at Quail Hollow. Finau is a 22:1 favorite with 4:1 odds of a top 5 finish and he ranks 2nd in my tournament model. He’s a better value on DraftKings where he can more reasonably be fit into a cash lineup. On FanDuel I would perhaps just reserve him for tournaments.

Mid-Priced Targets

Jason Kokrak (DK: $8.7k, FD: $10k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

When it comes to Kokrak, course history be damned! But, while he did miss the cut here last year, he landed a 33rd finish in 2017 (from now on you can just assume that 2017 Quail Hollow finishes were at the PGA Championship, not the Wells Fargo Championship that was at Eagle Point that year). But if you’ve been playing PGA DFS even a moderate amount, you’ll know what kind of season Kokrak is having and how he is in arguably the best form of his career. He has made 13/13 cuts on the season with four top 10’s -- all of which have come within his last six events. The only person in this field that can rival Kokrak’s current form is Rory McIlroy… who is pretty good. Kokrak ranks 19th in SG: OTT, 21st in Driving Distance, 13th in P4 AVG, 59th in P5 BoB%, and 103rd in SG: ATG. I’m not sweating those final two metrics toooo much because he is another great iron player (1st in field in SG: App over last 24 rounds) who should set himself up better than most on these greens. However, he does need to capitalize on his Par 5 opportunities more than he has in previous weeks. Overall, he ranks 11th in my tournament model and has 40:1 odds to win. 

Rory Sabbatini (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Sabbatini is one of the few guys who lacks a strong driver (290.8 yds/drive this season) that I’m keeping in my player pool this week. He didn’t compete here in 2017 but he has proven success on the lengthened renovated course last year when he landed a 27th place finish. He’s also riding some nice form, having made six consecutive cuts with his most recent start at the RBC Heritage also being his best finish of the season (10th). So while he’s not an elite driver, he ticks off three of the five boxes in my key stats. Overall, he is 30th in SG: OTT, 77th in Driving Distance, 78th in P4 Scoring, 25th in P5 BoB%, and 35th in SG: ATG. I’m really tempted to consider him a cash safe play, and I do have him rated as a fringe cash play now, but I fear I personally have a tendency to recommend Sabs in these newsletters, going back to last year, right as he decides to go out and tank on the week. Kinda like Lucas Glover (see; RBC Heritage and Waste Management Phoenix Open Newsletters where he went on to miss the cut by several shots in both events). Basically, “I’m not superstitious but I am a little stitious.” But we’ll see what he does and determine if I can add Sabbatini to my “jinx list” this week. He has 100:1 odds and grades out 18th in my tournament model.

Low-Priced Targets

Sam Burns (DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This might be the week where closing your eyes and playing Sam Burns in all formats is a route that many people will take. The field just takes a significant talent drop off at a certain point but Burns stands out with his six consecutive cuts made -- four top 30’s in a row and most recently, a solo 9th place finish at the RBC Heritage. He does fit the stat model pretty well, especially for his DFS prices. He is 34th in SG: OTT, 14th in Driving Distance, 64th in P4 AVG, 46th in P5 BoB%, and 128th in SG: ATG (ehhhh). In his rookie season last year, he managed to make it to the weekend and finish 55th. So that’s a better result than what many have done on this new look Quail Hollow course in the last two years. He is a trendy 125:1 long shot pick this week from what I’ve seen and he rates out at 15th in my model.

Max Homa (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Going for a deep GPP dive here, Homa will be on no one’s radar but he has quietly made six of his last seven cuts. Given, he’s not out here competing in Masters fields or anything, but posting a T10 at Pebble Beach and a T20 at The Honda Classic are worth commending. He hits pretty well on three out of five of the key stats I’m focusing this week: 43rd in SG: OTT, 32nd in Driving Distance, and 31st in P5 BoB%. Where he doesn’t shine is ranking 114th in P4 AVG and 133rd in SG: ATG. But hey, he does have some nice long irons (22nd in Proximity 200+ Yards) so an above average week on the Par 4’s and he could play his way into the weekend. Averaging 317.3 yards off the tee in the last month puts him at 6th in the field, so he can certainly bomb it. Worth a shot in a stars and scrubs GPP lineup if you ask me.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Rory McIlroy (DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.5k) | GPP Preferred | Too expensive for cash but I don’t think you can fade Rory if you’re running multiple lineups this week. Two time winner with two other top 5’s at Quail Hollow. Though he has finished 16th and 22nd here since the redesign. We’ll need to expect better than that this week.

- Justin Rose (DK: $10.3k, FD: $12.1k) | GPP Preferred | With his recent Masters missed cut, not playing here last year, and another MC at Quail Hollow in 2017, Rose’s ownership should be as low as it has been in a while. He is still capable of dominating any event, however.

Mid-Priced

- Charles Howell III (DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k) | Cash & GPP | I expect a quick turnaround from a bad Masters showing. 1st in P4 AVG, 20th in SG: OTT, and 11th in SG: ATG. Driving distance is right around 300 yards so he’s long enough to compete here -- evidenced by his 21st place finish here last year.

- Jhonattan Vegas (DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.5k) | Cash & GPP | Playing Jhonny Vegas in cash just seems scary to me, but damn he’s been good lately. If he can keep it in the fairway, he’ll likely find success here. 5th in SG: OTT, 15th in Driving Distance and 35th or better in my other key stats.

Low-Priced

- Cameron Tringale (DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k) | GPP Preferred | Has made five of last six cuts and landed 27th here in 2018. He’s not a bomber but he is long enough with a strong iron game. Could easily find himself inside the cut line.

- Cameron Davis (DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.8k) | GPP Preferred | No course history here and has failed to make the weekend in three straight events. But he’s one of the longest drivers in the field (309.6 yds/drive), has a decent iron game, can go on birdie runs, and is dirt cheap. But keep expectations very low with him.

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Best of luck to you guys this week!

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