Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

The majority of the world’s best golfers will make a quick intercontinental turnaround and head back stateside for the World Golf Championships - FedEx St. Jude Invitational to be held at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. With this being a WGC event, remember that there will be no cut. Barring any withdrawals or disqualifications, every golfer will get to play four rounds. Also, with this event carrying invitational status, there are only 63 players in the field (after the Shane Lowry withdrawal). But star power is not lacking -- 45 of the world’s top 50 golfers are set to tee it up in Memphis. For WGC events, I always recommend more of a GPP approach considering a large edge in cash games stems from avoiding golfers who miss the cut. That edge is null and void this week.

TPC Southwind is a Par 70 track that covers 7,244 yards with bouncy Zoysia grass fairways and Bermuda greens. This is a sneaky long course with many narrow tree-lined fairways (several doglegged holes), small, difficult to hit greens, and a load of bunker/water hazards to contend with. We will definitely see a lot of balls find the water this week, as TPC Southwind leads water hazard shots by a wide margin over every other course on TOUR in recent years. This is not an easy course by any means. It ranked as the 11th most difficult venue last season with an average score of 70.520. A reasonable winning score to expect would be somewhere in the 9-under to 13-under range.

Many different types of golfers have had success here. Being super accurate off the tee isn’t necessarily of the utmost of importance, as the rough is reasonably forgiving. But with all of the hazards in play, you definitely can’t be too erratic. This is very much a second shot course, so strokes gained on approach will unsurprisingly be my most heavily weighted metric. Also, with this being a Par 70 set up, Par 4 scoring is always crucial. Given the smaller green complexes, finding golfers who hit a high percentage of greens in regulation will also come into play. With every player guaranteed four rounds of golf, give me guys who can knock in a ton of birdies for maximum DFS scoring upside as well. I’ll deal with rostering guys who are prone to bogeys if it means they can knock in roughly twice as many birdies (and maybe a couple eagles).

Weather ⛅

With no cut this week, weather is largely irrelevant. But even if it was, there doesn’t seem to be any significant advantage whatsoever this week, particularly over the first two rounds in which we know when player tee times will be. Sustained winds will be in the single digits Thursday through Sunday with temperatures mostly in the mid-to-high 80s and no threat of rain looming. Weather should have no bearing on your decision making this week!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Scoring | 25%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

4. Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Dustin Johnson (DK: $11.4k, FD: $12k)

DJ may not be in great form right now but if you’re counting him out in a WGC event then you’re playing with fire. Johnson has won six times in WGC events (five stroke play, one match play) and he, of course, decimated the field at TPC Southwind last year after a 19-under score with a six stroke margin of victory. He also has a couple additional top 5 finishes on this course. Johnson is still a tee to green monster and, overall, ranks 11th in SG: App, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in BoB%, and 14th in GIR. If he brings a sharp iron game, he is a virtual lock for another top 5 finish but that’s far from a guarantee. Regardless, he is a top tournament option and is tied with the best odds to win in the field at 9:1. He ranks 7th in my model for this week.

Justin Thomas (DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.1k)

There are only five PGA events left this season but my take is that Justin Thomas will win one. Perhaps it’s this week? JT has nine career wins. Five of those came in no-cut events. Despite a late triple-bogey in the final round at The Open last week, Thomas still carded a T11 finish. The only thing preventing him from more dominant finishes post-wrist injury has been his putting. And I’ll keep playing him until he finally gets his stroke back on the greens because he has been immaculate tee to green. Per the key stats, he ranks 3rd in SG: App, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in BoB%, and 2nd in GIR. Hard to top those metrics! This will be his TPC Southwind debut but, if he gets it going on the greens, this course sets up perfectly for his game and he should find himself comfortably in the mix late on Sunday.

Mid-Priced Targets

Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.5k)

It’s important not to hold over any biases against players from their performances last week. The differences between Royal Portrush and TPC Southwind are night and day, along with the tournament format, and the weather conditions players will compete in. Hideki was in incredible form heading into last week, with no missed cuts on his resume and six consecutive top 25 finishes. And, in all likelihood, Matsuyama would’ve made the cut last week if it were not for a triple-bogey on the opening Par 4 hole (he went on to miss the cut by two strokes). He is another golfer who excels in WGCs, as two of his five PGA victories have come in these events. While he also has no course history here, Hideki fits TPC Southwind’s profile perfectly, ranking 2nd in SG: App, 13th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in BoB%, and 10th in GIR. Throughout his career, Matsuyama’s downfall, like so many others, have come with the flat stick. However, he is in the midst of one of the best putting stretches of his career so I’ll be scrapping his MC from The Open and considering him another elite option. He has 33/1 odds to win and rates out 2nd in the tournament model.

Gary Woodland (DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.1k)

Talk about a Major hangover. Woodland followed his US Open victory up with a pair of missed cuts at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and The Open but his complete body of work throughout the season is too strong for me to ignore. His nine top 10 finishes on the season are outdone by only Rory McIlroy (10) and Jon Rahm (11). With no cut in play, I think he can let loose a bit for this tournament and just play his game. On a course that will demand plenty of long iron shots, there are not many better than Gary. Overall, he ranks 15th in SG: App, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in BoB%, and 6th in GIR. In a week where I believe a heavy GPP approach should be taken, I can envision someone like Woodland going significantly overlooked. Yet he is fully capable of another top 10 result. He carries 40/1 odds and ranks 15th in the model.

Low-Priced Targets

Phil Mickelson (DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.1k)

Yes, Phil has been awful. Very, very, awful. But in terms of course horses, Phil may be the biggest pony in the stable. In six starts at TPC Southwind, Mickelson has made all six cuts with finishes over the last five years of 12th (2018), 9th (2017), 2nd (2016), 3rd (2015), and 11th (2014). The course history narrative hasn’t played into Phil’s favor in other weeks recently, but at least you know you’re going to get four rounds out of him! This is not a statistically driven play by any means because trust me, all of his stats are pretty ugly. But it happens all the time -- players will be playing terrible golf but they go to a course where they’ve had plenty of past success and end up coming through with a strong performance. Mickelson won’t be a core play for me but I’ll definitely have him in some of my riskier builds.

Max Homa (DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k)

I’m not messing with any of those (basically) minimum priced guys who made it into this tournament via international qualifiers when, for a couple hundred bucks more, you can get Max Homa. Not that Homa is an elite talent but he has at least shown he can win on the PGA Tour and he likely brings more birdie upside to the table than the vast majority of the other sub-$7k (DK) and sub-$8k (FD) dart throws. He’s also going to be able to out-drive most of the field and do some damage off the tee. Whether he can capitalize or not on his driving advantage will lie heavily on his putter, which isn’t very reliable. However, this is the first course he’ll be playing since winning the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in May that features Bermuda greens. So, for stars and scrubs builds, Homa doesn’t feel like the worst punt play on the board.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

- Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.7k | I’m ashamed of myself for going underweight on my boy Fleetwood last week. This may be completely different tournament settings but I’ll happily take some exposure here as he tees it up at another difficult venue that requires precise iron shots.

- Jason Day | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k | Damn, what a second round meltdown from Day last week. Brutal. But hit a quick reset because these DFS prices are ridiculous for a player of Day’s caliber -- especially on DraftKings. He’s been a bit of an enigma this season but he can absolutely show up on tough courses in stacked fields.

- Billy Horschel DK: $7.5k, FD: $9k | Horschel has three top 10s at TPC Southwind in his last four starts. His missed cut last week was only his second of the year in 20 events. Chalk it up as an outlier. Truth be told, I don’t love this play because I don’t see a ton of upside given the overall talent of the field. But if you’re playing cash games, he’s probably a good lower/mid-range option who has a solid shot at finishing somewhere in the 20th to 30th range.

- Eddie Pepperell | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | Pepperell has a couple top 5s recently on the EURO Tour and he showed his ability to compete in a star-studded PGA caliber field when he landed a T3 at The Players. He’s a little overly reliant on his putter, but for an event like this one, I’m not holding that against him. A sneaky top 10 finish from this Englishmen wouldn’t shock me.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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