Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays - The WGC HSBC Champions ⛳️

Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions! 

The 2018 WGC HSBC Champions Preview ⛳️

Hello again golf enthusiasts and welcome back to another issue of the LineStar Weekly Drive! This week is a bit different in that the PGA Tour is divided into two separate tournaments with the Sanderson Farms Championship and the World Golf Championship HSBC Champions both taking place -- though on opposite sides of the globe. DraftKings has contests for both events this week, however FanDuel only has contests scheduled for the WGC event, so that will be our focus this week.

The PGA Tour is on the final week of their three week Asian swing and, as is the case with all WGC events, this will be a smaller field of 78 players and, once again, there is no cut. WGC events also bring out many of the best golfers on the planet and this week is no different, with 12 of the top 20 golfers in the world and 35 of the top 50 competing for a share of the $10,000,000 purse and the 550 FedEx Cup points that will go to the winner.

The Sheshan International GC in Shanghai, China plays host to the WGC HSBC Champions as it has every year since 2005 (except for one year -- 2012). Sheshan GC is a Par 72 course that is moderately lengthy at 7,261 yards. Justin Rose is the defending champ here after shooting 14-under in 2017, though scores have dipped as low as 24-under when Dustin Johnson won in 2013. Driving accuracy will be important this week as the fairways at Sheshan GC are tight and can be quite tough to land on, with the field average hovering around 50% in accuracy. The rough can be troublesome and the players who land on the fairways have unsurprisingly gone on to hit a considerable amount more of greens in regulation and end atop the leader board. All three of the Par 3’s check in at 200+ yards and there are five Par 4’s that range in 450-500 yards in length, so long iron accuracy will be important as well. One last thing of major importance, golfers will NEED to capitalize on scoring low on the four Par 5’s on this course. Now, let’s get into key stats to focus on and some top golfers to consider this week!

Reminder: This event and its contests will begin at 8:50 pm ET today (6:00 pm ET on FanDuel)! Have your lineups finalized on time!

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage (P5 BoB%) | 30%

2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 25%

3. Driving Accuracy | 20%

4. Long Iron Accuracy (aka Proximity 175+ yards) | 15%

5. Par 4 Average (P4 Avg.) | 10%

*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.

High Priced Targets

Brooks Koepka (DK: $11k | FD: $12.6k)

After winning the CJ Cup last week and proving that he can show up in non-Major tournaments, Koepka enters this event as the new #1 ranked golfer in the world. I see nothing wrong with riding the top form as an excellent stud tier option to spend up on. He ranks 15th in SG: BS, 30th in Driving Accuracy, 4th in Long Iron Accuracy, 1st in P4 Avg, and 13th in P5 BoB%. He comes in 2nd in my overall player model behind only Dustin Johnson and he finished as the runner-up on this course in 2017. Koepka’s ability to overpower any golf course he faces and set himself up for birdie and eagle opportunities is nearly unparalleled when he is on his “A game." He has the second best odds to win at 9:1.

Tony Finau (DK: $9.9k | $10.8k)

On the lower end of the superstar pricing we have Tony Finau, who has displayed some excellent form over his last four starts to close out the 2017-18 season. He finished T15 at the TOUR Championship, T8 at the BMW Championship, T4 at the Dell Technologies Championship and an outright 2nd place finish at The Northern Trust. Those events, like the one this week, were star-studded top to bottom and he really established himself with a hoard of overall top-10 finishes last season. He ranks 9th in SG: BS, 46th in Driving Accuracy, 24th in Long Iron Accuracy, 27th in P4 Avg, and 12th in P5 BoB%. Those individual stats may not make it seem like he warrants such a high DFS salary but his super steady and consistent play-style does. He also has an average driving distance of 315.3 yards (2nd in the field). So if he finds the fairway on the shots he bombs, expect plenty of opportunities to shoot low. He finished T11 at Sheshan GC last year and boasts 25:1 odds to win.

Mid-Range Targets

Lucas Bjerregaard (DK: $7.8k | FD: $7.9k)

Bjerregaard is one of my favorite sleepers for this week, considering a heavy ownership bias will fall onto the American players and well known European players that mostly compete on the PGA Tour (your McIlroys, Fleetwoods, Justin Roses, etc). Whoever is in charge of FanDuel pricing is definitely unaware of this guy’s recent success because he is really mispriced when you look at what he has been accomplishing on the European Tour. In his last six starts, he has five top-10 finishes! This includes a win and a runner-up finish in that span. I don’t have official PGA Tour data on him, as he doesn’t qualify for PGA Tour statistics. But the 27-year-old out of Denmark has quickly risen to the 53rd ranked golfer in the world in recent months and has a major opportunity to show what he can do among the absolute best the game has to offer. Love him as a tournament option this week that will likely go overlooked. He has 66:1 odds to win this week.

Kyle Stanley (DK: $7.6k | FD: $9k)

Stanley will look to bounce back this week after a disappointing T66 result last week. Prior to last week, he had three top-15 finishes in his previous four starts. He grades out very well statistically and his elite driving accuracy should come in handy on a course that he finished T5 at last year in his debut WGC HSBC Champions appearance. He ranks 17th in SG: BS, 5th in Driving Accuracy, 8th in Long Iron Accuracy, 32nd in P4 Avg, and 21st in P5 BoB%. I’m willing to overlook his poor performance last week and trust that he has a nice showing in Shanghai. He’s too good of a value for the finish he’s capable of having. He has an 80:1 shot to win and ranks 5th in my personal player model -- far above anyone else in this price range.

Low Priced Targets

CT Pan (DK: $7k | FD: $8.2k)

Pan is once again a bit underpriced relative to his consistent nature of production. He has an average finish of 26th in his last ten starts dating back to the Quicken Loans National of last season and has two top-5 finishes in that span. As the 39th and 42nd highest priced option on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, that sort of finish would represent some nice value once again. Coming off of a T23 finish at the CJ Cup last week, he ranks 21st in SG: BS, 10th in Driving Accuracy, 35th in Long Iron Accuracy, 15th in P4 Avg, and 27th in P5 BoB%. He should be a very stable option in a “stars and scrubs” build due to his ability to consistently return value at this sort of salary. At 150:1 odds to win, don’t expect him to take home the trophy. But another top-25 finish could very well be in order.

Brandon Stone (DK: $6.5k | FD: $7.2k)

Prior to his missed cut at the British Masters a couple weeks back, Stone had finishes of T10, T10 and T12 in his three previous worldwide starts and he won the Scottish Open back in mid-July that had players like Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler competing in the mix. His PGA Tour data is limited due to rarely competing on this Tour but his aforementioned T12 did come not all that long ago at the PGA Championship which is, of course, a Major and jam-packed with talent. So the fact that he’s shown recently that he can perform at a high level in a tough field is reason enough to consider him in my opinion when he is just a few hundred dollars above minimum salary.

Quick Hits - Others to Consider

High Priced

- Dustin Johnson (DK: $11.5k | FD: $12.6k) | Unsurprisingly, the odds on favorite (8:1) and has finishes of T2, T5 and 1st in three of his past four starts here.

- Rory McIlroy (DK: $10.7k | $11.9k) | Likely garners the least ownership out of the top four highest priced guys. Coming in hot with four finishes of T7 or better in his last six starts.

Mid Priced

- Rafa Cabrera Bello (DK: $8.9k | FD: $11k) | Bounced back nicely last week with a T3 finish. Solid ball striker with elite long irons who fared well here last year with a T5 finish.

- Adam Scott (DK: $8.4k | FD: $10.1k) | I’m normally the last guy that recommends Adam Scott but I can’t ignore how well he sets up statistically. 6th in SG: BS, 14th in Driving Accuracy, 19th Long Iron Accuracy, 5th in P5 BoB%. Up and down finishes of 50th, 14th, 70th and 12th at Sheshan GC the past four years. Roster with caution.

Low Priced

- Eddie Pepperell (DK: $7.3k | FD: $8.6k) | Very impressive recent finishes on the European Tour and showed some gusto in a talent filled Major tournament with a T6 at last season’s Open Championship.

- Ashun Wu (DK: $6.8k | FD: $7.3k) | Full disclosure: I’m not very familiar with Wu at all but he has three top-25 finishes on this course in the past four years. If he repeats that feat, it’s amazing value at these dirt cheap salaries.

Congratulations to last week's PGA freeroll winners!

  • 1st: Hushamaniac - 577.5 points

  • 2nd: Darkchef - 558.5 points

  • 3rd: jdowning11 - 557 points

We’ll be hosting a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings so remember to join!

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That'll wrap it up for this week! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck out there guys!