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Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | WGC Mexico Championship ⛳️
Written by Ryan Humphries
Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!
The 2019 WGC Mexico Championship ⛳️
The Player Field & Course Preview
Golfers travel south of the border to play the WGC Mexico Championship in Mexico City at the Club de Golf Chapultepec. This is the third year that Chapultepec will play host for this WGC event, so course history can’t be weighed super heavily. This is also a no-cut event that features a smaller-than-usual field of just 72 players. Like any WGC tournament, the field is absolutely stacked, with the majority of the best golfers on the planet in attendance. There will be 18 of the world’s top 20 and 46 of the world’s top 50 golfers teeing up this week. As a result of this ultra-talented field, you’ll notice that there are many elite players that fall in the mid-range of salary pricing -- then there is a pretty stiff talent drop off towards the bottom. From a tournament strategy standpoint, don’t be afraid to leave several hundred dollars on the table in order to better your chances of having a unique lineup.
Looking at the course, Club de Golf Chapultepec is a longer Par 71 set-up that stretches 7,330 yards. The distance of this course is a bit misleading, however, and you shouldn’t force yourself into favoring bombers over guys who may be shorter off the tee. The reason being that Chapultepec sits at an elevation of roughly 7,600 feet above sea level, thereby making the ball fly further and results in the course actually playing more along the lines of around 6,900 yards in length. The fairways here are a bit narrower than TOUR average and may result in golfers clubbing down, as placing the ball in the right spots is crucial on many of these holes. A strong iron and wedge game will be essential for success and will lead to more birdie opportunities on these larger-than-average poa annua greens.
Also of note, with many guys in this field being from the EURO Tour, they may not be accurately portrayed within the stats with fewer (or zero) eligible rounds played on the PGA Tour recently. As a result, while I’ll still be considering PGA statistics, I won’t be weighing them as heavily in my decision making. Furthermore, with this being a no-cut event with a smaller field, I will be excluding my personal “cash and GPP” star ratings that you may recall from other newsletters. Barring a withdrawal or disqualification, everyone will be playing four rounds of golf so I usually lean towards playing more GPPs when it comes to contest selection. With all that said, let’s jump into a quick look at the weather, some key stats to focus on, and some of my favorite players to target for this week!
Weather ⛅
Without a cut to worry about, weather isn’t as important to keep track of this week. Even if there was a 36-hole cut, the weather wouldn’t appear to be a factor anyway. For the first time in a couple weeks the forecast sets up nicely for all four rounds of golf. There should be plenty of sun, temperatures in the 60s & 70s, no rain in sight, and most importantly the sustained winds should remain in the single digits throughout the entire tournament with very few threatening gusts. No concerns here!
Top Stats to Consider* 📊
1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%
2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%
3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 15%
4. Proximity to the Hole (Proximity) | 15%
5. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage (P5 BoB%) | 10%
*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category.
High-Priced Targets
Jon Rahm (DK: $10.7k | FD: $11.7k)
In terms of elite form, Rahm may have everyone in the field beat heading into this week. Going back to the end of November, he has six consecutive top 10 finishes and could very well extend that streak to seven at Chapultepec. Rahm played here in both of the previous two seasons, finishing 20th in 2018 and 3rd in 2017. Playing Rahm in DFS is often times a bit of a gamble because he does have a tendency to get in his own head if things aren’t going well and this may not be the best course fit for him. However, I’ll always keep him in consideration because when he’s in a groove -- as he has been for several consecutive events now -- he can shoot multiple rounds well below par. He ranks 27th in SG: App, 9th in BoB%, 6th in P4 AVG, 21st in Proximity, and 11th in P5 BoB%. If he can control his accuracy issues with some of his irons, he can easily take the podium at Chapultepec. He has the fourth best odds to win at 16:1 and pops up as 4th in my player model.
Tiger Woods (DK: $9.5k | FD: $11.2k)
Is it Tiger Week!? Hmm, I can sorta feel it. I’m sure the PGA Tour execs are thrilled to get back-to-back weeks of having Tiger in the field, as there is a certain buzz around events that he competes in that only he can supply. I believe he’s actually fairly priced in DFS this week, which can be a rarity, and this should be a course that suits him well. While this will be Tiger’s debut at Chapultepec, he has traditionally destroyed these events with 18 career WGC wins. I also like the fact that, given the nature of this course, he will have the option to club down to a driving iron and let his elite approach game do the heavy lifting for him. He ranks 5th in SG: App, 32nd in BoB%, 23rd in P4 AVG, 6th in Proximity, and 30th in P5 BoB%. His iron and wedge game is clearly where he shines, statistically, and he should have a major advantage on most of the field in that department. On a course he doesn’t traditionally thrive on, he surged up the leaderboard in the third round last week, shooting six-under par at Riviera CC. I’ll be looking for him to keep that sort of momentum heading into the WGC Mexico Championship on a course that compliments his play style (these days) much better... plus, honestly, who doesn't love to root for Tiger? He has the seventh best odds to win at 18:1 and is 13th in my player model.
Mid-Priced Targets
Webb Simpson (DK: $8.3k | FD: $9.8k)
The mid-range is absolutely loaded with great plays and it’s difficult to pick just two guys to talk in-depth on for this section but in a week where a great approach game is crucial, it’s tough to ignore Simpson from consideration. He’s kept his workload pretty light so far this year, having only played in two events in 2019, but he has finished top five amongst the field in strokes gained on approach in both events. He carded a middling 37th place finish in his Chapultepec debut last year but, as I mentioned above, I’m not putting too much emphasis on course history and I’d fully expect a better finish than that this go ‘round. He ranks 2nd in SG: App, 14th in BoB%, 1st in P4 AVG, 27th in Proximity, and 26th in P5 BoB%. As a 33:1 favorite to win, Simpson has some of the best “Vegas Value” (a useful LineStar sorting tool) in this price range and he ranks 3rd overall in my player model.
Gary Woodland (DK: $7.9k | FD: $10.1k)
In nine events this season, Woodland has reeled in top 10 finishes in seven of them! He’s truly been a PGA DFS powerhouse and you can get him at a discount this week -- especially on DraftKings. His 50th and 38th place finishes at Chapultepec aren’t inspiring but he is one of just 22 golfers in the field who will be seeing this course for the third time. If his recent form as of late carries over to Chapultepec this year, then he could very easily land his eighth top 10 of the season. He ranks 7th in SG: App, 3rd in BoB%, 21st in P4 AVG, 7th in Proximity, and 1st in P5 BoB%. The Par 5’s should account for right around 35% of DFS scoring on this course, so his Par 5 dominance should translate well. Woodland is another strong “Vegas Value” candidate with his 33:1 odds. He is 9th in my player model as well.
Low-Priced Targets
Joost Luiten (DK: $7.3k | FD: $7.8k)
Aside from guys like McIlroy, Casey, and Fleetwood, there are a lot of Europeans in the field this week that the general American golf fan and DFS player may not be too familiar with. I would put Joost Luiten in that category. Judging by his results in his three EURO Tour events this year, he could be an interesting sleeper that could rise up the leaderboard this week. He most recently finished 6th at the Saudi International three weeks back to go along with a missed cut and a 3rd place finish -- so he's been a bit "feast or famine" but it's also a small sample size. He is also one of the golfers that will be playing this course for the third time after a 37th place finish in 2018 and 25th in 2017. He doesn’t qualify for PGA stats but he is currently 3rd in SG: App (and 3rd SG: T2G) on the EURO Tour. Really it seems that his downfall lies with his putter, where he ranks 172nd in SG: Putting. As I often mention, putting is the most fickle of all golf statistics and really anyone’s putting performance can change drastically week-to-week. If he simply putts adequately this week, or even just not terribly, then he should have all the tools in his bag to excel in the other facets of the game. He also appears to be a much better value on FanDuel as the 56th most expensive option (34th on DraftKings).
Alexander Bjork (DK: $6.1k | FD: $7.6k)
The great thing about no-cut events is that you can make some really interesting and aggressive “stars & scrubs” lineups and know that you’re going to at least get four full rounds out of your low salary players. Bjork is another cheaply priced European golfer that stands out at the near stone cold minimum of pricing on both sites. Bjork doesn’t register for PGA stats and also fails to excel in any noteworthy statistics in the EURO Tour rankings but he has made eight consecutive worldwide cuts which includes three top 20 finishes in his last six starts. So really I’m just looking to rely on his solid recent form when drafting him in lineups this week. If you want to stack two or three studs in the same lineup, you’ll definitely need someone in Bjork’s price range to make it viable and he doesn’t seem like the worst dart throw to me. If he simply avoids finishing in the bottom ten or so players, he very likely returns value. If he surprises with a top 20 finish then you’ll probably have him at <5% ownership as well.
Quick Hits | Others to Consider
High-Priced
- Justin Thomas (DK: $11.8k | FD: $12k) | Pretty obvious elite option after letting a win slip away last week. Was the runner-up here last year and finished 5th in 2017. 1st in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 8th in P4 AVG, 2nd in Proximity, 2nd in P5 BoB%. Easily the top option in my player model.
- Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $10k | FD: $11.5k) | I’m liking DeChambeau as a pivot off of the other studs at the top. He’s shot in the 60s in 14 of his last 16 rounds. 2nd in BoB%, 2nd in P4 AVG, 3rd in P5 BoB%.
Mid-Priced
- Marc Leishman (DK: $8.7k | FD: $10.8k) | Playing incredibly this season. Coming off of a 4th place finish last week, marking his fifth top 5 finish in seven starts. 9th in SG: App, 6th in BoB%, 10th in P4 AVG, 4th in P5 BoB%.
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK: $7.8k | FD: $9.9k) | Finished 3rd here last year and has been very consistent tee-to-green. I expect a solid top 25 finish from him.
- Matt Kuchar (DK: $7.7k | FD: $9.8k) | Seemingly always a safe option especially at these prices and carries plenty of upside with two wins already this season. He may hear some jeers from spectators in relation to the recent drama surrounding him ‘stiffing’ his fill-in caddie (who is Mexican) after his win at the Mayakoba Classic.
Low-Priced
- Alexander Noren (DK: $7.1k | FD: $9.6k) | This just seems like a misprice, particularly on DraftKings. Noren is the 25th ranked player in the world and can easily contend this week. Finished 14th at Chapultepec last year.
- Emiliano Grillo (DK: $6.9k | FD: $9.4k) | Seems like another (DraftKings) misprice to me. Grillo is 4th in SG: App, 18th in BoB%, and 12th in Proximity. He should exceed his DK price tag comfortably.
- Abraham Ancer (DK: $6.6k | FD: $8.4k) | Ancer should be a crowd favorite as the top ranked Mexican golfer in the world. He’s fallen out of form a bit lately but certainly has the game to push for a top 20 finish.
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That will do it for our WGC Mexico Championship preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!
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