Written by Ryan Humphries

Follow me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!

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Tournament & Field 🏆

It’s a vital week in the PGA as the majority of the world’s best players are set to tee it up at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational hosted by TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. There is also an alternate event for other PGA Tour members who didn’t meet WGC qualifications (Barracuda Championship in Truckee, CA). This is one of the last chances golfers will have to earn points to get inside (or stay inside) the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings and become eligible for the playoffs which begin after next week’s PGA Championship.

Remember for this week’s WGC event, there will be a smaller 78-man field and no cut. In no-cut events, I usually advise playing mostly GPPs since a major edge in cash games (predicting reliable cut makers) is out of the picture. I also won’t be including my cash and GPP ratings for players this week as a result of the no cut format. In total, 64 of the world’s top 70 players are on site for this week, so the level of competition is clearly as high as it gets.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Southwind

Par 70 - 7,237 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Difficulty Last Five Years: 25th, 11th, 15th, 10th, 9th

First Tee: Thursday, July 30th @ 12:00 pm ET

TPC Southwind is a sneaky long course that will certainly challenge the world’s best golfers this week. It has routinely ranked as one of the top 15 most difficult courses in recent years and possesses many course defenses. The narrow tree-lined Zoysia grass fairways (several doglegged holes) are very bouncy and hard to hit. The Bermuda grass greens are small, undulated, also hard to hit, and run firm and fast (12-13 on the stimpmeter). Additionally, bunkers and water hazards are a major threat. The water, which is in play on ten holes, is particularly dangerous, as more balls have found water at TPC Southwind than any other course since 2003… and it isn’t particularly close. It is inevitable that many big numbers will get written on scorecards this week. One attribute of this course that shouldn’t cause golfers *too* much stress is the rough, which isn’t going to be too gnarly or overly difficult to hit out of.

Many different types of golfers have had success here. Being super accurate off the tee isn’t necessarily of the utmost of importance, since the rough is reasonably forgiving. But with all of the hazards in play, you definitely can’t exactly “bomb and gouge” this course and expect to come out unscathed. This is very much a second shot course, so strokes gained on approach will be my most heavily weighted metric. Also, with this being a Par 70 set up, Par 4 scoring is always crucial. Given the smaller green complexes, golfers are inevitably going to miss some of their approach shots, so gaining strokes around the greens will be necessary. An important distance for shots this week will be in the 150-175 yard range where nearly 30% of approach shots have historically come from at TPC Southwind. Finally, given the fact that most of these holes are going to play over par, I will look for golfers who excel at bogey avoidance. If TPC Southwind plays similarly to how it has in previous seasons, a winning score will be someone around 10-under, so definitely don’t go into this one expecting a ton of birdies!

Weather ⛅

Since this is a no cut event, weather isn’t quite as important for full four round DFS contests but it’s still something you want to pay attention to, especially if you’re playing single round showdown slates.

Due to the heat and humidity in Memphis, there is always a danger that pop-up thunderstorms will develop. Currently there is at least some chance of rain across all four rounds, so some stoppages and weekend tee time adjustments may be in order for this week. Winds could also be an issue, primarily on Thursday and Friday, but right now it seems that both AM/PM and PM/AM waves will be effected pretty equally (pending extended delays). There is no clear-cut weather advantage right now but things can always change. As always, run a final check of the forecast on Wednesday night or Thursday morning (remember this tourney doesn't tee off until noon ET on Thursday). The forecast page is linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG) | 10%

5. Proximity 150-175 Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 11/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Key Stat Ranks*: 14th in SG: App, 7th in P4 AVG, 9th in Bogey Avoidance, 12th in Prox. 150-175 Yards, 19th in SG: ATG

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field.

Since I believe no-cut events are more suitable weeks to focus on GPPs, Rory McIlroy will be a key target. This is due to the fact that I expect Rory to possibly be the lowest owned golfer among the top five priced options. This is a reasonable assumption since he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up lately. Rory’s last four tournaments have resulted in finishes of T32, T11, T41, and T32. Obviously, for the salaries that McIlroy typically carries, those results aren’t cutting it. However, Rory has nine top 10s across his last eleven starts in no-cut events (including two wins) and averaged 100.6 DKFP in those tournaments. He ranks out strongly in every one of my key stats that I’m focusing on this week and has recorded an incredible 21 top 10s in 28 WGC events. McIlroy has also played well at TPC Southwind, posting an average finish of 13th in three starts.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3

Key Stat Ranks: 4th in SG: App, 2nd in P4 AVG, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 38th in Prox. 150-175 Yards, 11th in SG: ATG

You could make a very valid case that Hatton is the hottest golfer on the Tour right now. He may not be competing on a weekly basis but when he does tee it up, he makes it count. His six starts on the PGA Tour this season have resulted in finishes of T4, T3, 1st, T6, T14, and T6. It’s insane how consistent he has been but that consistency has launched him up to being the No. 14 ranked golfer in the world. You can pretty much disregard that T43 finish he had at TPC Southwind last year. That disappointing result stemmed from an awful week on the greens and he is practically a completely different golfer right now. He may very well end up being the highest owned golfer this week, which is something to keep in mind when developing your GPP strategy, but he’s also an immensely risky guy to fade right now.

Mid-Priced Targets

Billy Horschel | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 45/1 | Custom Model Rank: #28

Key Stat Ranks: 53rd in SG: App, 32nd in P4 AVG, 38th in Bogey Avoidance, 32nd in Prox. 150-175 Yards, 24th in SG: ATG

Horschel isn’t a guy who is going to wow you on paper with his long term stats from this season, but he does enter into this week off of very strong back-to-back finishes after carding a T13 at The Memorial and a T7 at the WCO. A huge draw I have towards Horschel this week is course history. He has five top 10s in his last six trips to TPC Southwind, so he clearly has an affinity for this place. Horschel has also gained over half a stroke per round putting in his last 24 rounds on Bermuda greens. I’m anxious to see if he can keep his mini hot streak rolling.

Paul Casey | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #20

Key Stat Ranks: 7th in SG: App, 29th in P4 AVG, 28th in Bogey Avoidance, 43rd in Prox. 150-175 Yards, 68th in SG: ATG

(Heavy sigh) If this pick makes you feel queasy, you’re not alone. Casey burned many, many people over the last two weeks by missing the cut at both the 3M Open and The Memorial. However, we have to assume that keeps his ownership very low and at the very least we know Casey doesn’t have to worry about missing the cut this week. He lost over six strokes putting across his first two rounds last week. He is a terrible putter but it’s a near certainty that he won’t putt *that* badly two weeks in a row. Casey has only played TPC Southwind twice but has posted decent results -- T27 in 2019 and T24 in 2014. Nothing is really malfunctioning with his tee to green game, so if he can actually not implode with his putter this week, he could pay off these salaries. Casey has also finished inside the top 25 in 13 of his last 16 no-cut events. With all that said, he is definitely not someone I would consider “cash safe” right now (for those who are playing cash games this week).

Low-Priced Targets

Adam Hadwin | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #15

Key Stat Ranks: 23rd in SG: App, 15th in P4 AVG, 14th in Bogey Avoidance, 1st in Prox. 150-175 Yards, 25th in SG: ATG

Hadwin is a golfer I’d usually target as a cash game staple most weeks, considering his fantastic cut-making ability without incredible upside week-to-week. But for these kind of prices, I believe he has to fall into consideration across the board despite a cut line not being in play for this tournament. He is also the cheapest golfer who ranks inside the top 25 in all key stats. This will be Hadwin’s first career start at TPC Southwind but he is perfectly capable of taming a tough course like this. Golfers don’t have to be prolific birdie makers to find success here. Rather, it will be more important to simply limit mistakes and avoid things like hitting balls in the water and rolling bad three-putts. As such, Hadwin’s game suits this track nicely.

Brendon Todd | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #34

Key Stat Ranks: 52nd in SG: App, 17th in P4 AVG, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 39th in Prox. 150-175 Yards, 34th in SG: ATG

Todd has multiple PGA wins *this season* and has carded a T22 (Memorial) and T11 (Travelers) within his last three starts. So, it’s hard not to like him when he is priced a little ways up from minimum salary. He’s going to hit plenty of fairways (1st in Driving Accuracy) and shouldn’t drop many shots due to his excellent bogey avoidance ability. Todd is also one of the better putters on Bermuda grass. He has averaged +0.66 SG: P (Bermuda) over his last 25 rounds, which ranks 7th in the field. He has to be one of the most appealing punts on the board.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.7k | Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #1

JT has four wins and ten top 10s in his last 16 no-cut events. He crushes the key stats, ranking 3rd in SG: App, 4th in P4 AVG, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Prox. 150-175 Yards, and 12th in SG: ATG. Next to Hatton, he’s probably my favorite overall play this week.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k | Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #6

X had a pretty rough outing in his last tournament (the Memorial). He made the cut on the number yet still managed to come away with a T13 finish when it was all said and done. Schauffele has just been super consistent this season and deserves a ton of consideration in lineups this week.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.3k | Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #11

It was extremely unusual to see Ancer lose nearly eight strokes on approach shots at the Memorial, where he ultimately finished T58, because he had been crushing his irons prior to that week. I would expect we see a quick bounce back performance from his iron game this week and hopefully take advantage of people who may be scared off of him due to his most recent performance.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k | Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #19

It’s really hard to predict a “Niemann week” but his game should fit this course quite well. He checks in at 12th in SG: App, 22nd in P4 AVG, and 19th in Prox. 150-175 Yards. Really, to return value on these salaries, he just needs a decent week around and on the greens, which is where he typically struggles.

Kevin Streelman | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k | Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #36

Streelman is a little ‘boom or bust’ but he has a T7 and solo runner-up finish within his last three starts. He ranks 20th in both SG: App and P4 AVG across his last 24 rounds and has a tendency to post very low rounds (63s-66s) but he just isn’t always the most consistent performer. Regardless, in a GPP-centric week, he’s a highly intriguing cheap option to target.

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That will do it for our WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week!

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