Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview ⛳️

After a week that featured a historic 82nd win for Tiger Woods, the PGA Tour sets out on the final leg of the Asia swing. Golfers will be teeing up in Shanghai, China for the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions which is hosted by the Sheshan International Golf Club. This is the first of four WGC events on the season, which will always bring out the majority of the planet’s top golfers. The field of 78 golfers will be chasing their share of a $10.25 million prize pool. Also, there will once again be no cut this week. As a reminder, this event will begin at 8:45 pm ET on Wednesday, so make sure all of your lineups are set in time!

The Sheshan International GC plays host to this event as it has every year since 2005 (except for once in 2012), so we finally have a bit of course history to account for! Sheshan GC is a Par 72 course that is moderately lengthy at 7,261 yards. Xander Schauffele is the defending champ here after shooting 14-under in 2018, though scores have dipped as low as 24-under when Dustin Johnson won in 2013. The tree-lined fairways here are not very wide but the rough hasn’t been too penalizing over the years. However, golfers will need to avoid the fairway bunkers and water hazards by any means necessary. Strokes gained off the tee has been a highly correlated statistic that has led golfers to success. Further prosperity can be found by hitting greens in regulation at a high clip and capitalizing on these four Par 5s. Let’s go ahead and get a look at the current weather forecast, some key stats to consider, and some golfers to target at each price range!

Weather ⛅

As usual with any no cut event, weather isn’t extremely important since every golfer will get their opportunity to play all four rounds. This week, things appear to be extremely quiet on the forecast. Sustained winds may not even hit double digits at all during this tournament and there doesn’t appear to be any threat of rain at any point. Temperatures will also be pretty pleasant, as they hover in the 60s and 70s throughout. You can run a final weather check once we get a little closer to golfers teeing off, but I really don’t see any issues arising at this point.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 5 BoB% | 15%

4. Par 4 Average | 15%

5. Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.4k

Vegas: 5.5/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

I always consider it a bit of a “faux pas” to highlight the most expensive player on the board, and everyone certainly knows how good Rory is, but he just stands out so much this week given how well his game transfers to this course. McIlroy is clearly comfortable at Sheshan GC, landing top five finishes in 4-of-7 starts with an average finish of 12th. His ability to gain strokes off the tee, my most heavily weighted metric this week, is simply off the charts. Overall, McIlroy ranks 1st in SG: OTT, 2nd in BoB%, 1st in Par 5 BoB%, 2nd in Par 4 Average, and 14th in GIR. During his run to a T3 at last week’s ZOZO Championship, he opened with a disappointing round of 72, but went on to outdo everyone over the final three days with rounds of 65, 63, and 67. There is nothing wrong with his form at all and it is very clear why he is the odds on favorite to win this week. McIlroy will be a very dangerous fade here.

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 25/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14

The thinking here with Im is that he may possibly go overlooked with all of the big names around him, making him an intriguing GPP play. This is also going to be Im’s first start at Sheshan GC, so he’s one of the few pricey guys on the board without any course history to speak of. But he’s fired off two top three finishes across his last four starts and has more than proven himself as an elite competitor. He’s certainly a riskier option than some other guys near him in salary, but all signs point to the young PGA up-and-comer having a successful week. He ranks 10th in SG: OTT, 6th in BoB%, 8th in Par 5 BoB%, 5th in Par 4 Average, and 25th in GIR. He has one of the better putters in the field (6th in SG: Putting) and should have ample opportunity to succeed.

Mid-Priced Targets

Ian Poulter | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k

Vegas: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #12

Poulter’s form is really coming back after carding T16 and T13 finishes in his last two starts. He has excelled in recent WGC events, going 8th, T17, T3, 21st, T10, and T5 across his last six WGC starts. In eight appearances at Sheshan GC, Poulter has carded three top 10s and has an average finish of 17th. He also landed a runner-up finish here back in 2013. Overall, Poulter ranks 32nd in SG: OTT, 15th in BoB%, 9th in Par 5 BoB%, 31st in Par 4 Average, and 32nd in GIR. He stands out in a big way as a strong mid-range value and I’d happily roll him out in all formats.

Erik van Rooyen | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k

Vegas: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #27

I’ll preface this pick by mentioning that van Rooyen would pop up much higher on my personal player model if he happened to qualify for PGA strokes gained stats. He plays most of his events on the EURO Tour, so there aren’t any PGA statistics for him to qualify for currently. However, if you look at his recent starts on the EURO Tour, yes he does have two missed cuts in his last three starts, which may not feel ideal. But in recent events where he has played all four rounds (which he is guaranteed to do this week, barring a withdrawal or disqualification), he has had finishes of T10, T14, T12, 1st, T5, T20, and T14. Of course, the level of competition this week is going to be stiffer than what he typically competes against, but this is a guy who went T20, T43, T8, and T17 in last year’s Majors. EVR is averaging the 4th most birdies per round on the EURO Tour and ranks 23rd in SG: OTT. If you’re looking for a European golfer who many PGA DFS players may not be all too familiar with, van Rooyen should land squarely on your radar. His salaries this week rest at a price point which should leave plenty of meat on the bone.

Low-Priced Targets

Xinjun Zhang | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #13

I’ve heard plenty of buzz on Zhang among the PGA DFS talking heads, so I don’t believe this guy will come in anywhere near “under the radar” territory. That won’t sway me from keeping him as one of my top value guys to roster. Zhang, who is the 2019 points leader on the Korn Ferry Tour, has ripped off finishes of T4, T16, and T7 across his last three PGA starts. It’s been three weeks since we last saw Zhang compete, but he appears to be fully dialed right now. He ranks 16th in SG: OTT, 1st in BoB%, 10th in Par 5 BoB%, 1st in Par 4 Average, and 11th in GIR. You can somewhat discredit those elite stats to an extent, considering he doesn’t have as many measured PGA Tour rounds registered in comparison to the majority of the field. Regardless, I’m on board with Zhang this week and, in an elite field, I’m anxious to see what sort of fight he can put up. He should have some level of “home field advantage” as a Chinese native, and he does have five starts at Sheshan GC with an average finish of 34th. If he pushes through a top 25 result, that would be a perfectly acceptable return on investment at these prices.

Bubba Watson | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #36

Usually, I’m one of the last guys who will recommend Bubba Watson… I just don’t really like the guy. But he has been known to thrive on what some have dubbed “Bubba courses.” These “Bubba courses” being tracks where he has (somewhat) consistently shown up and produced good-to-great results. In five starts at Sheshan GC, Bubba has two wins with an additional top 10 coming in 2013 by way of an 8th place finish. His form isn’t exactly in the best place right now, but he does have a tendency to do well in WGC events, with six of his 20 best finishes coming in World Golf Championships in the last 10 years (per OWGR.com). If you roster Bubba this week, at least you know you don’t have to sweat a cut. He ranks 5th in SG: OTT, 32nd in BoB%, 3rd in Par 5 BoB%, 37th in Par 4 Average, and 25th in GIR. Watson hasn’t played here in a couple years but he certainly needs to get that form back in line if he anticipates a strong overall 2019-20 season. This should be as good of a week as any, considering he has a couple of previous wins here.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Paul Casey | DK: $10k, FD: $11.1k

Vegas: 22/1 | CMR: #3

Form is solid coming in and Casey has a pair of top 10s across eight starts at Sheshan GC. Ranks 6th or better in SG: OTT, Par 5 BoB%, and GIR.

Adam Scott | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.6k

Vegas: 28/1 | CMR: #5

Even after a couple disappointing finishes at The Shriners (T42) and the ZOZO Championship (T33), Scott feels like a great target to go with in balanced lineups. He’s finished inside the top 10 in four of his last seven starts and has pretty extensive history at Sheshan GC, finishing 18th or better in three of the last five years. He’s a prolific birdie maker who simply has to get his game off the tee going to excel.

Sergio Garcia | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.1k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #37

There are plenty of other golfers who would be better suited to mention, but I just have a feeling that Sergio will piece his game together sooner rather than later. He is very much a feast or famine type golfer, as of late, but he has three finishes of 4th, 9th, and 11th in his last four starts at Sheshan GC. He’s a GPP only play for now, but Sergio has shown enough on the EURO Tour in recent weeks for me to still keep buying stock and believing.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #7

Hadwin sticks out just a bit too much in my custom model for me to not mention him. In two starts at Sheshan GC, he has finished 30th and 65th, so the course history isn’t the key draw. But he does have T4 and solo second place finishes within his last three starts. Hadwin also ranks 15th or better in all five of my key stats for this course. I wouldn’t put a ton of investment in him this week, but he is absolutely worth gaining some sort of exposure to.

Keegan Bradley | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k

Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #35

You’re playing with fire any time you roll Keegan out in PGA DFS, but he landed a 6th place finish here last year and is entering in this week on a T13 at the ZOZO Championship. Bradley will typically be one of the better ball strikers in the field most weeks, but it always comes down to those <10-15 foot putts. If he sinks a few of those, he may very well card a second consecutive top 15 finish.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat, so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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