By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour makes its way out of Cali and travels coast to coast to begin a four week Florida swing. The World Golf Championships-Workday Championship will kick off the month long stay in the Sunshine State and this tournament will be held at The Concession Golf Course in Bradenton, FL. Under normal circumstances, this event would have been played at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City but COVID complications and travel restrictions forced the PGA Tour to call an audible. As a result, this will be the first PGA event played at this particular course. Like every WGC tournament, we will have the pleasure of witnessing an absolutely loaded field compete -- 48 of the world’s top 50 players are on site and ready to tee it up. The field also consists of only 72 players and there will be no cut line. Barring an injury or a disqualification, every player is guaranteed four rounds of golf so we can look to prioritize players with high birdie upside over golfers who tend to bring more cut-making potential to the table. You’ll probably see everyone say this, but the cream almost always rises to the top in WGC tournaments, so be cautious on how bold you get when looking to roster some of the less talented golfers in the field.

Also, as I’m writing this the Tiger Woods news just released of him getting injured in a car accident which required hospitalization. Prayers up to the G.O.A.T. and here’s to hoping he makes a quick recovery.

The Course Preview ⛳

Not gonna lie, it’s pretty tough writing about golf just after hearing about the Tiger news but I’m now seeing that the injuries are non-life threatening. That’s obviously great news so let’s get into this week’s course preview. Note: some details about this course are a bit vague and it obviously doesn’t help that this is the first time a PGA event will be hosted here. The Concession Golf Club was designed by Jack Nicklaus and is a Par 72 course that extends a lengthy 7,452 yards. This course will feature four Par 5s, four Par 3s, and ten Par 4s. The Par 5s are monsters and average right around 580 yards so it may not be a bad idea to give a boost to golfers with great length off of the tee. Those four Par 5s also aren’t your typical birdie holes as they rank inside the five most difficult holes here. Three of the four Par 3s are also monsters in their own right as they measure in at over 210 yards. This track features an abundance of winding holes, some which dogleg off to the left, others to the right. The tree-lined fairways are above Tour average in terms of width but at certain lengths (usually around 300 yards) some of the fairways will begin to narrow and become more difficult to hit. Bunkers will also protect many of the preferred landing zones. Reportedly the rough won’t be too treacherous and is supposedly only around an inch-and-a-half in length. Since this is Florida we’re talking about, it’s not surprising to see water hazards featured on a course. A whopping twelve out of the 18 holes will see water come into play. The Bermuda grass greens will play small due to slopes and run-off areas on the edges. They’re also expected to play firm and fairly fast, around 12-13 on the stimpmeter.

Ultimately, The Concession GC could draw many comparisons to Riviera GC from last week’s Genesis Invitational. Other experts also compare it to PGA National (Honda Classic), which is another Florida course we’ll see in play in three weeks. I would not expect this course to be a pushover by any means and just based off of initial research, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a winning score in the single digits under par. This should be an interesting battle between the vast majority of the world’s best golfers so let’s get into it!

Weather ⛅

It’s looking like golfers will see some pretty great weather conditions this week. While some troublesome gusts (15-20 mph) could come into play on Sunday, winds will rarely crack 10 mph for most of the week. Plenty of sunshine on the horizon with comfortable temps in the 60s and 70s.

Verdict: Weather and tee times should have no effect on how you build your player pool for full four round DFS contests this week. But it may be worth taking weather into account if you’re playing single round contests on Sunday. As always, the most up-to-date forecast can be seen by clicking on the image below.

WGC-Workday Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

6. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Tony Finau | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 4th SG: App | 13th SG: OTT | 16th P4 AVG | 17th P5 AVG | 13th SG: ATG | 15th Long Iron Accuracy

I’ll hit on a couple of the elite guys priced at the very top in the “Quick Hits” section towards the end of this article, but for now, I’ll start things off with Finau who tops the chart in my player model this week. Tony definitely has an “always the groomsman, never the groom” thing going on. After losing in a playoff to Max Homa last week, if you include the Saudi Invitational, Finau has now recorded three consecutive runner-up finishes along with a solo 4th place result at The American Express. Even though it seems he has some sort of winning curse going on, you won’t necessarily need Finau to win in order to pay off these salaries which place him as the 8th most expensive golfer on both sites. The ball striking is there, his length off the tee makes him a great course fit, the long irons are great, he’s excellent around the greens, and he’s coming in with elite form while leading the field in average fantasy points over the last five starts. Surely he doesn’t let us down this week, right?

Victor Hovland | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 22nd SG: App | 6th SG: OTT | 12th P4 AVG | 19th P5 AVG | 28th SG: ATG | 11th Long Iron Accuracy

Ya have to love Hovland heading into this week after he has recorded four finishes of T6 or better within his last five starts, including a win (Mayakoba). I do kind of like to target younger golfers in good form on the rare occasion that a course pops up on the schedule which has previously never been played on the PGA Tour. These young guys can often be at a bit of a disadvantage with little to no course history at a lot of venues on Tour, but that obviously won’t be the case this week. Hovland has been striking the ball beautifully for a while now and he has really solid length (21st in driving distance) and accuracy (20th in fairway accuracy) with the driver which should translate nicely to The Concession GC. The only real area I’m concerned about with him is the putting. His Bermuda putting splits are pretty ugly and rank him at 55th in this field of 72 golfers. If he can manage to stay around even with the field in strokes gained putting, or perhaps gains a stroke or two, he has a legitimate shot to compete for the win this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 66/1 | | CMR: #17 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 3rd SG: App | 23rd SG: OTT | 35th P4 AVG | 13th P5 AVG | 35th SG: ATG | 19th Long Iron Accuracy

I feel like I highlight Zalatoris every week but while he has turned in a couple of disappointing results this season, he’s shown plenty of upside along the way as well. After a very solid T15 at last week’s Genesis Invitational, I have to like him again this week. In the same vein as Hovland, Zalatoris is another younger PGA professional who could benefit from the entire field have little to no course experience here. There also aren’t many guys out there who are going to be able to drive it as far as Zalatoris can. If the rough is actually going to be fairly benign, that could work even more in Zalatoris’ favor because he does tend to struggle with driving accuracy (ranks 50th in the field). He’s a worthy mid-range golfer to target this week.

Jason Day | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #37 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 42ndSG: App | 21st SG: OTT | 34th P4 AVG | 38th P5 AVG | 23rd SG: ATG | 30th Long Iron Accuracy

Jason Day has been a big name in golf for a while but his results over the past year or so have been feast or famine. Injuries have played a major factor in his game not staying consistent, but he did notch a T7 finish in his most recent start at Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago while shooting all four rounds under 70. Day typically plays well on Florida courses and he has also shown up in these no-cut WGC events over the last couple of seasons. In his last five starts in WGC tournaments, Day has finished 11th or better four times. If he can continue to string his approach game back together, I believe he could be an excellent option in this price range… though I likely won’t be considering him for my cash lineup personally.

Low-Priced Targets

Ryan Palmer | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 15th SG: App | 19th SG: OTT | 1st P4 AVG | 4th P5 AVG | 44th SG: ATG | 17th Long Iron Accuracy

Palmer is going to be perhaps the most popular value option this week but it’s fully warranted. He’s posted three top five finishes within his last five starts and he ranks 2nd in the field in average fantasy points in that span. You can also see from the key stats that, aside from the around the green play, his game should fit this course extremely well. Palmer should be an excellent option to roll out in cash but in GPPs you could elect to go with lower exposure on him since there are still plenty of really talented golfers in this price range -- they’re just guys who haven’t had as much recent success as Palmer.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #30 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 28th SG: App | 29th SG: OTT | 18th P4 AVG | 27th P5 AVG | 47th SG: ATG | 38th Long Iron Accuracy

Ancer is the 44th (DK) and 39th (FD) highest priced option in this field and these low-end salaries are a clear byproduct of the high level of competition this week. He is currently the No. 28 ranked player in the world and while he does have a couple of missed cuts in his recent starts, he has a T5 finish (at The American Express) sandwiched in the middle. He isn’t a bomber but his fairway accuracy is elite and his solid long irons should keep him in the conversation for a top 20 finish. In his last three WGC starts he has carded 15th, 12th, and 4th place finishes so he can certainly hang with all these other big names in the field.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 6/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

DJ didn’t play particularly well last week and he was still able to card an 8th place finish. Golf is an odd sport to really designate a fantasy floor with, but we’re pretty much seeing DJ’s “floor” be a low-end top 10 finish. I think it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen this wide of a gap between the No. 1 player in the world and everybody else.

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Rahm would definitely not appreciate that previous sentence considering he checks in as the No. 2 player in the world, but it’s not a knock on him… just a testament to how good DJ has been. Rahm has also exhibited an excellent floor this season considering he has finished 7th or better in five of his last six starts. I pretty much said the same thing about him last week, but his long and accurate play off of the tee combined with his crisp iron play should fit this course nicely.

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #6 | GPP Preferred

Bryson of course missed the cut last week but there is reason to expect a bounce back. He lost right under four strokes tee to green in his opening round but came back Friday and gained +4.33 strokes T2G on the field. Obviously, it wasn’t enough to make it into the weekend but on a course that should favor bombers, maybe even heavily, DeChambeau has to at least land on the radar for GPP player pools.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #11 | GPP Preferred

Morikawa was second in the field last week in strokes gained on approach (+7.52) but finished second to LAST in strokes gained putting (-7.55). If he even has a flat average week putting, then he would have easily finished inside the top 10. He’s apparently experimenting with new things with his putter but I’m hoping he decides to nix that plan and go back to what he’s more comfortable with. Plenty of winning upside with this kid if he figures out that flat stick.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #26 | Cash & GPP

An accurate bomber who can easily deal with the length of this course while knocking in a ton of birdies is exactly what Scheffler is. Scheffler can definitely go on bogey runs just as easily as he can string together a ton of birdies but without a cut to worry about, I love his DFS scoring potential. Worth a look in all formats.

Harris English | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #18 | GPP Preferred

English was on fire for a while towards the end of 2020 and opened the 2021 calendar year with a win at the Sentry TOC… then the wheels fell off. The win hangover led to a T52 at the Sony Open followed by missed cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open and the WM Phoenix Open. Maybe after taking three weeks off, a mental reset will do him some good. If the form snaps back in line, he could really outperform these salaries.

Carlos Ortiz | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #24 | Cash & GPP

Ortiz burned a lot of people last week, myself included, but prior to getting cut he still gained strokes tee to green -- he simply lost -3.23 strokes with the putter which led to the missed cut. He was rolling prior to last week so he’s a prime bounce back candidate and definitely won’t break the bank.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Tony Finau

Xander’s T15 last week was a little underwhelming, but not a result I can be all too mad about. With a $10.5 million purse at stake this week, it’s definitely a great time to burn one of your studs. I’ve personally already used guys like DJ, Rahm, JT, and Rory so I’m going to go with a second tier stud who has been firing on all cylinders lately with Tony Finau. I would love for him to break his victory curse this week!

Other OAD Picks to Consider: DJ, Rahm, Hovland, Reed, Sungjae Im, Scheffler

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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