By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour is set to tee off at TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Arizona. This is typically one of the rowdiest events on Tour with an average attendance of over 180,000+ each round, 700,000+ for the week. Of course, COVID restrictions will not allow the same experience this year as only around 5,000 fans per day will be granted entry. Still, this is one of the few events with spectators since the initial pandemic shutdown in 2020 so it’ll be nice to hear some cheers and jeers throughout the week on the TV coverage. Unlike the last couple of events, only one course will fall into play this week. This is also a high strength field, with 12 of the top 25, and 46 of the top 100 players in the world in attendance. With just a single course rotation and a bit less daylight available at this time of the year, this event is capped at 132 golfers with the standard cut rule in play – the top 65 players (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. The PGA also schedules this event to wrap up on Sunday about an hour ahead of the Super Bowl kickoff. So, while the atmosphere won’t be as electric at TPC Scottsdale this year, it’s worth tossing up on the television as you make your Super Bowl preparations.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Scottsdale is one of the most well-known courses on Tour. It’s a Par 71 layout that extends 7,261 yards. Winning scores have fallen between 14 and 18-under for the last seven years. Without massive crowds putting the pressure on these golfers, perhaps scores go a bit lower this year, but I’d still expect the eventual winner to finish around 18-under. The cut line has also settled at 1-under par for each of the last four years.

TPC Scottsdale is a pretty forgiving course with fairly playable rough, so bombers can have a slight advantage so long as they avoid landing in one of the 68 bunkers or various water hazards. Six of the final nine holes bring water into play and we’ll definitely see some golf balls going for a swim down that stretch. This course also sits at an elevation of around 1,500 feet above sea level. Combined with the arid desert conditions, drives tend to fly around 10 yards longer than usual. Several holes offer ample scoring opportunities but in quite a “risk vs. reward” manner, which is what makes this event so exciting. That said, this is a ball striker’s paradise so golfers who are solid off of the tee and possess great iron play will reign supreme -- especially those who excel in the 150-175 yard range, as that will be the most common distance guys will be taking their second shots from. With this being a Par 71 set-up, there are only three Par 5s but they’re all reachable in two shots by the majority of the field. About a third of the birdies scored for this entire tournament will come on those three holes. The 17th hole also offers up a high-risk-high-reward drivable Par 4. Golfers will absolutely need to go low at those opportunistic parts of the course if they hope to push for a top 10 finish. The Bermuda grass greens range from small to very large and run firm and fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter) while being relatively flat. They should play a bit easier than the Poa Annua greens which golfers have dealt with in recent weeks. Now let’s get a look at the weather, some key stats to focus on, and some players to target for the WMPO!

Weather ⛅

It’s looking like we’ll have very little to be concerned about in the way of the weather. Cool temps, plenty of sunshine, no rain in sight, and (most importantly) winds should hardly get above 5 mph. No need to worry about any sort of wave advantage this week but, as always, run a final weather check on Wednesday night. The forecast page is linked to the image below.

WMPO Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage| 15%

5. Proximity from 150-175 Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking in my model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, and recent fantasy scoring outputs.

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 8.5/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Rankings: 6th SG: BS | 1st BoB% | 3rd P4 AVG | 4th P5 BoB% | 11th Prox. 150-175 yds

The controversy surrounding Thomas aside following his remark at the Sentry TOC, from a DFS perspective he should definitely land on our radar this week. His average finish of 6.6 over his last five events leads the field and he’s also had back-to-back third place finishes at TPC Scottsdale. JT also absolutely dominates in the key stats rankings checking in at no worse than 11th in any single category. As long as his mentality is in the right place, anything worse than a top 10-15 finish from JT would be a very surprising result. With the softer DFS pricing across the industry this week, I believe you can fit one of these $10k+ (DK)/$11k+ (FD) guys into a cash lineup pretty easily so Thomas will be in play across all formats, personally.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $9k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #25 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Rankings: 1st SG: BS | 35th BoB% | 74th P4 AVG | 14th P5 BoB% | 9th Prox. 150-175 yds

The primary thing working against Zalatoris this week is simply a lack of course history. This will be his first time teeing up at TPC Scottsdale but he’s already shown that he can play pretty much anywhere. He’s notched four top 10s across his last seven PGA starts, including a T7 finish last week where he gained strokes in all major categories. In his early professional career, Zalatoris has shown that he’s a premier ball striker and he brings one of the biggest drivers to the desert this week (ranks 3rd in field in driving distance). If he can simply stay decently consistent with the flat stick, he has a great chance to make a run at the trophy this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Corey Conners | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Rankings: 7th SG: BS | 18th BoB% | 42nd P4 AVG | 46th P5 BoB% | 64th Prox. 150-175 yds

Recommending Conners as a cash viable play always makes me a little apprehensive because his short game, or lack thereof, has historically taken him out of numerous tournaments. Fortunately, he hasn’t had any major meltdowns on or around the greens in a while and his strokes gained ball striking is almost always going to be near the top of the field. While his T37 finish last week was nothing to write home about, it did extend his made cut streak to eight events in which he’s tallied six top 25s as well as three top 10s. Not a ton of course history to his name with just a 45th place finish in his WMPO debut last year, but on a ball striker’s course, Conners can excel here.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #55 | GPP Only

Key Stat Rankings: 18th SG: BS | 74th BoB% | 11th P4 AVG | 58th P5 BoB% | 60th Prox. 150-175 yds

Norlander is a golfer you generally want to get a piece of when he’s hot. Following a T12 at The American Express two weeks ago and a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, I’d say things are definitely starting to click for him. He was second in the field in SG: T2G last week, he just couldn’t get anything going with the putter (-0.87 SG: Putting). Despite this being Norlander’s first WMPO appearance, TPC Scottsdale poses a less difficult challenge than Torrey Pines. His best recent putting splits have also come on Bermuda grass greens where he ranks 21st in the field in SG: Putting. With all that said, I’d still reserve him as a GPP only play due to his long term form looking very unappealing.

Low-Priced Targets

Patton Kizzire | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #33 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Rankings: 101st SG: BS | 15th BoB% | 39th P4 AVG | 28th P5 BoB% | 71st Prox. 150-175 yds

Kizzire is yet another golfer who I’m always hesitant to write up but we can’t ignore the fact that A) he’s cheap, especially on DraftKings where he’s priced as the 50th most expensive golfer, and B) he’s made eight cuts in a row with three finishes of 11th or better. His average finish of 22.6 over his last five starts is pretty easily the best mark of anyone in this price range and, while they haven’t been spectacular results, he has made 4-of-5 cuts at TPC Scottsdale across his career. He’s a fringe cash play if you’re looking for value but I’d rather reserve him for tournament lineups if possible.

Harry Higgs | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #21 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Rankings: 64th SG: BS | 14th BoB% | 21st P4 AVG | 32nd P5 BoB% | 22nd Prox. 150-175 yds

The long term form may not be great for Higgs but he has started off the 2021 calendar year with back-to-back made cuts and he notched a 25th place finish in his WMPO debut a year ago. Ranks out quite well in 4-of-5 key stat categories and he’s also a solid putter on Bermuda grass (ranks 27th in the field). I may have to stew on this a bit, but if I end up going stars & scrubs with my cash lineup, Higgs may end up making it in there. I would certainly use him as a punt in tournaments though. He’s the cheapest golfer to rank inside the top 25 overall in my personal model for the week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k

Odds: 6.5/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Rahm played his college golf at ASU so he’s always a crowd favorite at this event and he’s never had a bad finish here, finishing no worse than T16 in five starts. Obviously, there won’t be immense crowds cheering him on this week but I’m not sure if it matters considering the quality of golf he’s playing lately.

Daniel Berger | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

I could honestly see Berger go a tad overlooked this week but he really shouldn’t. He’s been ultra consistent, landing top 25 finishes in nine of his last 11 starts -- and the two non-top 25s weren’t even disastrous results (T28 & T34). He’s also made 4-of-5 cuts at TPC Scottsdale with four finishes of 11th or better. Great golfer to anchor slightly more balanced lineup builds.

Bubba Watson | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #11 | GPP Preferred

Tough to trust Bubba following an ugly MC last week but he’s made 12/14 cuts here including five top five finishes and back-to-back top fives in the last two years.

Max Homa | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #34 | Cash & GPP

Homa’s prices are getting up there but rightfully so following three consecutive top 25 finishes. He excels on Par 5s and has landed 6th and 26th place results at the WMPO the previous two seasons.

Chris Kirk | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

I’m really liking Kirk out of the mid-range as he heads into the week with six consecutive made cuts, including a T2 (Sony Open) and T16 (American Express) to kick off the 2021 calendar year. He brings plenty of course experience to the table as well (7-of-9 made cuts at TPC Scottsdale) and ranks 35th or better in three key stat categories (SG: BS, P4 AVG, Prox. 150-175 yds).

Brendan Steele | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #17 | GPP Preferred

Steele missed the cut at TPC Scottsdale the previous two years but he started off making his initial eight cuts at this event which included four top 10s and a few other respectable results. The short term form is also popping off with T4 and T21 results in the month of January. A little hesitant to recommend him for cash games -- a definite GPP option.

Bo Hoag | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #92 | GPP Preferred

Four top 30s in his last five PGA starts makes him an intriguing punt play. Zero course history and long term metrics are pretty ugly though, hence the low CMR ranking.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Daniel Berger

I assume a lot of folks have saved Jon Rahm specifically for this event and I certainly wouldn’t knock anyone for rolling him out in their OAD leagues this week. I deployed Rahm last week myself and can’t be mad about the 7th place finish, so I’ve got to go elsewhere. I’ll be rolling with a fairly safe play in Berger due to his good mix of strong course history and recent form. Don’t let me down, DB!

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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