Written by Ryan Humphries

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels to Dublin, Ohio where Muirfield Village Golf Club will play host to a brand new event -- the Workday Charity Open. In these strange times there seems to be unique circumstances every day in the world of sports and there is definitely an interesting twist to this week’s PGA tournament. Due to the postponement of the John Deere Classic, which was originally scheduled for this week, Muirfield Village GC will be the host course both for this week as well as next week’s Memorial Tournament, which Muirfield is more traditionally associated with. To make things more interesting, the course will be set up a bit differently across these next two weeks (more on that below in the course breakdown). This 156-player field is a fairly strong one talent-wise. We’ll see 14 of the world’s top 25 ranked golfers tee it up this week, as well as 52 of the top 100. “Tiger Watch” is still underway and guys like Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau have elected to take the week off, but we still have plenty of star power thrown into the mix. The traditional cut rule will be in effect once again -- the top 65 players (including ties) after two rounds will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Muirfield Village Golf Club

Par 72 - 7,456 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa (mixed)

Cut Line Last Five Years: +2, +1, +4, -1, Even

Difficulty Rank Last Five Years: 13th, 30th, 13th, 36th, 23rd

Winners Last Five Years:

2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)

2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15)

2017: Jason Dufner (-13)

2016: William McGirt (-15)

2015: David Lingmerth (-15)

First things first -- barring drastically different weather conditions, Muirfield Village GC should most definitely play easier this week as opposed to next. PGA Tour players received a memo that the course will have unique setups for the Workday and Memorial events. For this week, the normally treacherous rough will be cut shorter, the greens will run slower, and tee boxes will be adjusted in order to protect the course for next week. This likely translates to another birdie-fest kinda week where the winning score will land somewhere in the vicinity of 20-under par.

Muirfield Village GC was designed by The Golden Bear himself, Jack Nicklaus. The tree-lined fairways are some of the widest on TOUR and golfers hit them upwards of 70% of the time most years. There are 13 water hazards and 74 sand traps in play as part of the course’s defense. The overall design makes this very much a “second shot” course, so approach shots are the most important aspect of a golfer’s game this week. Guys don’t necessarily have to be long with the driver but their mid-to-long range irons need to be on point, as the vast majority of approach shots will come from the 150-200 yard range. Since Muirfield is a Par 72, that means there are four Par 5s in play. The longest Par 5 hole is just 567 yards, so they are all reachable in two shots for just about everyone in the field. Getting birdie (or better) on these holes as a must. There are also a few extremely tough Par 4s, so I’ll be looking for consistent scorers on those holes as well. The mixed bentgrass/poa greens are small but the actual speeds should be pretty manageable this week. Typically they are set up to measure about 13 or faster on the stimpmeter -- this week they’re aiming more towards 11. The greens are protected by plenty of strategically placed bunkers. Golfers who can consistently get up-and-down out of those green-side bunkers will also have a solid advantage. While I am expecting quite a bit of scoring this week, this field is strong enough to where I don’t see any one golfer running away with it, so we should have another entertaining event due up!

Weather ⛅

We’ll need to keep our eyes peeled for some potential weather issues this week. Rain could come into play in three of the four days, with Friday and Sunday afternoons carrying the highest chance of precipitation. For now, I’m going to assume that the golfers will be able to play through that rain. If lightning becomes an issue, we’ll see some mandatory suspensions of play but hopefully they’re not lengthy hold ups. This tournament should still probably finish on Sunday.

Operating under the assumption of no delays, we could see a slight weather advantage develop for the PM/AM wave. Along with the potential rain on Friday afternoon, increased winds come into play (10-12 mph sustained, 15 mph gusts). Golfers can manage 10-ish mph winds fine, for the most part, but guys in the PM/AM wave may have a chance to play in <5 mph conditions for much of their first two rounds if the current forecast holds true. This isn’t a significant enough advantage to where I’d base my player pool around the weather, but if I’m on the fence between two players and one has the PM/AM draw while the other does not, I will probably elect to roll with the former. Definitely run a final forecast check on Wednesday night to monitor for any changes.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 15%

5. Proximity 150-200 yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 14/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Cantlay is the reigning Memorial champion so it is no surprise he pops up as the top overall ranked player in my model for this week. His game fits just about every course well, but it especially works at Muirfield Village GC. Cantlay wasn’t particularly great tee to green at the Travelers Championship, which was his first event since mid-February, and yet he still carded a T11 finish. If his version of ‘shaking off the rust’ is an 11th place finish, then I have high hopes for him this week. Cantlay ranks 3rd in SG: App, 2nd in P5 BoB%, 3rd in P4 AVG, 31st in SG: OTT, and 41st in Prox. 150-200 Yards. Typically Cantlay averages right around 300 yards per drive but he showed a bit more ‘oomph’ off the tee at the Travelers where he averaged 314.8 yds/drive. No one is going to confuse Cantlay’s prowess off the tee with Bryson or Rory but if he added a bit more muscle during the hiatus, he could be even more of a force on the PGA Tour than he already is. He has made 8/8 cuts on the year and 3/3 cuts at Muirfield Village GC highlighted by the 2019 win and a 4th place finish in 2018. I wouldn’t be shocked if he is the highest owned player in the field this week and his price does also make him a bit difficult to fit into a cash lineup, but he’ll be firmly in play in all formats despite those concerns.

Justin Rose | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: #16

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

In these high salary ranges I’m expecting the majority of people to flock towards Cantlay, Hovland, and Koepka. There’s nothing wrong with that in my eyes, but that could leave Rose as a potential ownership leverage play, especially in GPPs. Rose has incredible course history at Muirfield, with six top 10 finishes in 12 trips, including a win back in 2010. He burned people who chose to roll him out in lineups during his last event at the Travelers, where he didn’t even make the cut, but that can largely be blamed on a poor week with the putter after losing 2.6 strokes to the field. Rose hasn’t displayed the sort of consistency that golf fans have come to expect out of him in recent years but his finishes of T3 (Charles Schwab Challenge) and T14 (RBC Heritage) since the restart shows that he is still capable of competing for PGA wins. On paper, Rose ranks 58th in SG: App, 3rd in P5 BoB%, 96th in P4 AVG, 45th in SG: OTT, and 3rd in Prox. 150-200 Yards. The stat rankings certainly aren’t glamorous for a guy who costs this much in DFS, but it is important to remember he made a major club switch, from Honma to TaylorMade, during the hiatus and those clubs have really paid off for him in two of those previous three events. Overall, I would prefer Rose for GPPs this week but I’m not fully opposed to rolling him out in cash either.

Mid-Priced Targets

Kevin Streelman | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #23

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Streelman has been anything but consistent this season, making just 7/17 cuts. But in three of the seven weeks he has made it past the cut line, he has landed a top five finish (including two runner-ups). One of his runner-up finishes came in his last start at the Travelers where he gained shots in every major strokes gained category (putting, approach, off the tee, around the green) and very nearly pushed Dustin Johnson into a playoff. Despite Streelman’s four missed cuts at Muirfield in eleven trips, he has snagged his fair share of success, with three top 10 finishes -- two of those coming within the last four years (T4 in 2019, T8 in 2016). He ranks 66th in SG: App, 10th in P5 BoB%, 48th in P4 AVG, 27th in SG: OTT, and 95th in Prox. 150-200 Yards. He is a bit all over the place on the stat sheet but as long as he can play himself into the weekend, Streelman carries a ton of upside in GPPs.

Joel Dahmen | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #12

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

This is just another week where Joel Dahmen continues to go underpriced across the DFS industry. Here are Dahmen’s last six finishes: T20, T48, T19, T5, T5, T14. If someone similarly priced to Dahmen, like Phil Mickelson or Jason Day, had those same recent results they would easily cost around $1,000 more on both sites. Sure, the differences in ‘golfer pedigree’ and proven long term PGA Tour success between Dahmen and guys like Mickelson and Day is pretty drastic but “recent form” reigns supreme when it comes to golf and Dahmen’s form has been excellent. He ranks 11th in SG: App, 138th in P5 BoB%, 8th in P4 AVG, 14th in SG: OTT, and 31st in Prox. 150-200 Yards. Dahmen absolutely needs to pick up his birdie (or better) percentage on his Par 5s but, other than that, he dominates the stat sheet and he has been affordable week in and week out in DFS. Dahmen has made 14/16 cuts this season so he brings a ton of safety to cash game builds and he has flashed his top 10 upside four times this season, so feel free to throw him into your GPP player pool as well.

Low-Priced Targets

Max Homa | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Prior to the restart, Homa was playing really excellent golf and at one point he finished inside the top 25 in six of seven events between January and March. Since the restart, things have not gone as smoothly, missing two of three cuts. The good news is that Homa only missed those two cuts by three shots combined, so it isn’t like he’s been mailing in disastrous rounds. A cold putter can also largely be to blame as well. Any golfer’s putter can get hot just as quickly as it can go cold and, long term, Homa is typically pretty reliable on the greens (50th in SG: Putting). Elsewhere, Homa ranks 32nd in SG: App, 32nd in P5 BoB%, 93rd in P4 AVG, 28th in SG: OTT, and 60th in Prox. 150-200 Yards. Homa carded a respectable 37th place finish at Muirfield last year and since then he has really shown major improvement, so I’m expecting a solid bounce back from him this week. He’s maybe a tad risky for cash but I really like him for a lower owned GPP target.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k

Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #77

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

If Norlander can ever find some consistency with the putter (116th in SG: Putting) I believe we can start to expect more results in line with last week’s T12 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Norlander gained +8.57 strokes tee to green versus the field last week, which ranked second just behind Viktor Hovland (+9.62 SG: T2G). Unfortunately, he lost -2.46 strokes putting which ultimately kept him away from vying for a top five finish. Regardless of a lousy putter, as long as Norlander’s iron game continues to trend up, he should be able to make the cut this week and potentially pay off these low salaries with ease. He ranks 46th in SG: App, 70th in P5 BoB%, 48th in P4 AVG, 52nd in SG: OTT, and 80th in Prox. 150-200 Yards. In those long term stats, he doesn’t stand out in any one category but he isn’t horrible in any either. He’s another value player who I’d prefer for GPPs but, in a stars and scrubs cash build, he may still be viable.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $10k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 16/1 | CMR: #2 | GPP Preferred

I haven’t quite seen enough out of Hideki since the restart to consider him for cash games but at times he looked really good last week and he has a penchant for Muirfield Village GC, making 5/6 cuts here with a win (2014) and three overall finishes of 6th or better. Ranks 4th in SG: App and 5th in P5 BoB%.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #4 | Cash & GPP

Since the restart, Hovland has finishes of T23, T21, T11, and T12 so it’s a tall order to find many guys who have been as consistently solid as him over the past month. He is dominating T2G -- just needs to find the rhythm with the putter (100th in SG: Putting) and he’ll be in contention for some wins very soon.

Matt Kuchar | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Despite the missed cut here last year, you can’t talk Muirfield Village GC without at least mentioning Matt Kuchar. He has made his other 11 cuts here which included a whopping seven top 10s and a win in 2013. Kuchar hasn’t quite been churning out the sort of results we’re used to seeing out of him, but I’d be floored if he disappoints here two years in a row.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Hadwin brings a ton of cut equity to the table every week and has just one missed cut on the season in 11 starts. Now he is entering in off of his third top 10 finish of the year and checks in at the same DK price as last week (+$100 more on FD). Perhaps more ideal as a cash play but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is somewhere in the mix to vie for a win on Sunday.

Cameron Champ | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #27 | GPP Preferred

With no Bryson or Rory in the field this week, if you want to see some booming drives, then try to catch some of Cameron Champ’s tee shots. The 25-year-old is averaging 335.1 yards off the tee in his last two events with back-to-back top 15 finishes. There’s always a ton of birdie upside with this guy (6th in BoB%) and with four Par 5s on the menu, he is fully capable of shooting multiple rounds of 66 (or better).

Harold Varner III | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #10 | Cash & GPP

HV3 has just one missed cut in his last seven starts and, despite a lack of incredibly strong finishes, he just feels like a safe investment on this sort of course. He finished 19th here in 2017 and any result inside the top 30 would be pretty decent value. Ranks 18th in SG: App and 13th in SG: OTT.

JB Holmes | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 200/1 | CMR: #33 | GPP Only

Holmes is making his first appearance since the restart, so there most definitely will be some rust for him to shake off, but he landed three finishes of T16 or better in his prior four events. He also has some nice finishes at Muirfield in recent years, highlighted by a T13 (2018) and T4 (2016).

Austin Cook | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k

Odds: 400/1 | CMR: #89 | GPP Only

I’ll be honest, I haven’t kept up with Austin Cook in a while but someone linked me this tweet pictured below, so credit to @Jude_UT4 for putting him on my radar this week.

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That will do it for our Workday Charity Open preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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