By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads south of the border for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba held at the El Camaleon Golf Club in the Playa del Carmen region of Mexico. After some fairly ‘scrubby’ events, we’ll see a much higher level of overall talent tee it up this week. Within this 132-player field, just under half of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance including 20 of the top 50. Among the more recognizable names in this field include Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, and many more! The traditional cut rule is also in place once again – the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will qualify to play into the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

El Camaleon GC is a Par 71 layout that stretches 7,017 yards and features three Par 5s and four Par 3s. This course has hosted this tournament (formerly dubbed the Mayakoba Golf Classic) every year since 2007 so we do have a very solid course history sample size to work with for many golfers in this field. El Camaleon GC sits by the ocean on the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula (about 40 miles south of Cancun) so winds can sometimes come into play as a primary course defense. But as long as winds stay relatively manageable, we can expect plenty of birdies ahead with a winning score to be in the high-teens, or perhaps just inside the 20-under range. Over the last five years, winning scores have finished between 19-under and 22-under.

The fairways here have some tight landing zones and plenty of hazards to contend with. The rough isn’t incredibly gnarly, but around 10-15 yards away from the fairways are a ton of very problematic hazards (sand dunes, dense vegetation, mangroves, canals). Since this is a shorter course by PGA standards, a popular strategy that players may deploy will be to “club down” off the tee in an effort to keep their ball out of trouble and have a more optimal second shot. The paspalum-style greens here don’t have very much undulation and will play at average to slower-than-normal speeds (around 10-11 on the stimpmeter). Due to the receptiveness of the greens (especially if any rain comes into play), expect the premiere iron players in this field to stick plenty of shots close to the pin at this track. A healthy iron and wedge game will be paramount as well as excellent Par 5 scoring, as around 35% of birdies made here will come on those three Par 5 holes. With all that covered, let’s hop into an early look at the weather, some stats to key in on, some standout golfers in my personal tournament model, and some top plays to consider this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature and Rain: It’ll be warmer conditions than what these golfers have become acclimated to in the last few autumn weeks but it won’t be scorching hot as temps stay in the 70s to mid-80s. It does appear as if there will be some chance for rainfall but mainly during the evening and overnight on Wednesday and Thursday -- nothing heavy enough to affect play.

Wind: A major course defense at El Camaleon GC is wind but it won’t play much of a factor this week, especially across the opening two rounds. Sustained winds on Thursday and Friday should rarely rise above 5 mph with little to no gusts. Things pick up over the weekend, primarily on Saturday, but even then golfers should expect (at worst) 10 mph sustained winds with the occasional 15+ mph gusts.

Verdict: Great golfing weather with no wave advantage to be had.

World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 30%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Greens in Regulation | 10%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

Mayakoba Model Standouts

This is a new section I’m adding showing the top 10 ranked golfers in both my key stats model (listed above) and overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored). This doesn’t mean these are the top 10 golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should be favorable DFS options this week.

Top 10 Golfers - Key Stats Only

1. Justin Thomas

2. Viktor Hovland

3. Mito Pereira

4. Russell Henley

5. Talor Gooch

6. Aaron Wise

7. Matthew Wolff

8. Tony Finau

9. Seamus Power

10. Cameron Tringale

Top 10 Golfers - Overall Model Rank

1. Justin Thomas

2. Aaron Wise

3. Viktor Hovland

4. Talor Gooch

5. Tony Finau

6. Scottie Scheffler

7. Abraham Ancer

8. Harold Varner III

9. Cameron Tringale

10. Russell Henley

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #7

Ancer returns to El Camaleon GC where he has finished T-12, T-8, T-21, and T-9 in each of the last four years. He is the top ranked Mexican golfer and should be a crowd favorite this week. Ancer’s extremely strong driving accuracy will lead to hitting a ton of fairways and from there, he just needs to find his stroke with his irons and wedges. Ancer made just one bogey across all four rounds in this tournament last year and he’ll come in with one of the better putters in the field (3rd in SG: Putting).

Aaron Wise | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #2

When Aaron Wise is in form, I believe ya have to keep riding him until he cools off. He will enter this week on the heels of back-to-back top 10 finishes at The CJ Cup and The Shriners Children’s Open and hasn’t finished worse than T-26 in his previous five starts. He also finished runner-up in this tournament a year ago along with a T-10 three years ago. He stands out on the stat sheet as well, ranking no worse than 27th in any of my five key stats for the week and he’s near the top of the field in BoB% (5th), P4 AVG (7th), and GIR (4th). It would seem wise to stick with Wise for at least another week.

Talor Gooch | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #4

Gooch is a pretty routine mention here in these newsletters, largely due to his consistent cut-making ability. He has made it past the cut line in 12 of his last 13 starts (and 17 of his last 19). However, early in this 2021-22 PGA season, he has gone from simply a cut maker to a legitimate contender. His three PGA starts this season have led to finishes of T-4, T-11, and T-5! He crushes the stat sheet, ranking no worse than 13th in any category and his game has been anchored by strong iron play (6th in SG: App) and he’s dominating Par 5s (3rd in P5 AVG). Sure, Gooch isn’t someone who normally commands these sort of salaries, but due to his form, both recent and long term, he’s firmly on the radar this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Alex Noren | DK:$8.4k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 55/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #105

Overall Model Rank: #62

Noren’s numbers look ugly on paper, hence the awful “Key Stats” ranking. However, he’s finding ways to get it done in golf tournaments and has now posted four top 20 finishes in his last six worldwide starts with no missed cuts. He carries moderately high risk but will also have a high ceiling in GPPs this week.

Mito Pereira | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #19

I’m a sucker for a strong ball striker and Pereira has certainly been striking the hell out of the ball this season. He checks in 1st overall in SG: App and 1st overall in SG: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App). In this field, he also ranks 1st in P4 AVG, 4th in P5 AVG, and 3rd in GIR. Since coming over to the PGA Tour, Pereira has made 8-of-10 cuts including three finishes of T-6 or better (along with a T-4 at the men’s Olympic competition). This will be his first time playing El Camaleon GC so he’s at a disadvantage when it comes to course history, but his upside is too difficult to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #18

Niemann draws the rare “cash preferred” tag from me considering his extremely high cut equity after making 32 of his last 33 cuts. He’s not necessarily coming away with tremendous finishes but you don’t necessarily need a top 10 result out of him to pay off in cash games. He’s averaging a 34th place finish over his last five starts, and 30th place finish over his last ten starts. Niemann checks in with fair salaries this week and will be a solid mid-range option for your double-ups, triple-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-head DFS contests.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Harold Varner III | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 90/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #8

HV3’s finishes over his last seven PGA starts: T-32, T-11, T-16, T-12, T-11, T-57, and T-15. His form has been excellent, especially for someone who is priced as the 34th most expensive golfer on DK this week and 44th most expensive golfer on FanDuel. His stand out key stats include: 20th in SG: App, 15th in BoB%, and 19th in P4 AVG. HV3 doesn’t have the most consistent track record at El Camaleon GC, but he has had some strong success with a T-6 finish here in 2018 and a T-5 in 2015.

Russell Knox | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 75/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #63

Overall Model Rank: #49

Knox notched a highly commendable T-12 result last week in some brutal conditions at the Bermuda Championship and now heads down to El Camaleon where he has found an insane amount of success throughout his career. In seven starts at this course, Knox has never missed a cut and has posted three top 10 results with an average finish of 20th place. He doesn’t statistically pop off the page but he has provided strong iron play (22nd in SG: App) and hits plenty of greens in regulation (13th in GIR). He’ll need to get a little momentum going with the flat stick (105th in SG: Putting) but he has seemingly had a feel for these more unique paspalum-style greens based on his course history. Knox could easily outperform his DFS salaries this week on a course he is obviously very comfortable on.

Brian Gay | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #106

Overall Model Rank: #99

After a long string of results ranging from bad to horrific prior to last week, Gay righted the ship and is now coming off of a T-12 finish at the Bermuda Championship. For a golfer this cheap, he brings elite course history to the table. Gay has not missed a cut in 10 trips to El Camaleon GC and he’s posted an average finish of 27th place to go along with a pair of top 5s, including a win! We can’t trust a strong result from one week two much and course history only goes so far with a golfer, but if the 49-year-old is truly rounding back into form, he’s not a bad punt option in GPPs this week.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k | Cash & GPP

Viktor Hovland | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k | GPP Preferred

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.1k | GPP Preferred

Mid-Priced:

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.8k | GPP Preferred

Maverick McNealy | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | GPP Preferred

Seamus Power | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.7k | Cash & GPP

Low-Priced/Punts:

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k | GPP Preferred

Guido Migliozzi | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k | GPP Preferred

Rory Sabbatini | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.9k | Cash & GPP

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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