By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour is set to begin a three week stretch of tournaments away from US soil. This week, they will be traveling out to Japan for the third edition of the ZOZO Championship. Due to COVID protocols, Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California played host to this event in 2020. Now, this tournament returns to where it was first played in its 2019 Tour debut at Acordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan. At the time, this was the first ever PGA sanctioned event held in Japan -- a country that is just as crazy about its golf, if not more, than any other country in the world. Tiger Woods beat out the crowd favorite, Hideki Matsuyama, for the win in 2019 by shooting a winning score of 19-under. For a second consecutive week, we’ll be dealing with a small 78-man field with no cut rule in play. The overall talent level is fairly low with only nine of the world’s top 50 ranked golfers, and 32 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers in attendance.

It’s certainly a terrific time to be a sports fan. NBA makes its return today, MLB is in the home stretch of an excellent postseason, NHL recently started back up, and of course, the NFL and CFB seasons are in full mid-season swing. That will put PGA on the back burner for most people but staying active and on top of these early-season golf tournaments can go a long way towards success in the grand scope of things. As I have recommended in previous weeks, I do believe it is wise to lower your PGA bankroll spend this time of the season but, of course, someone has to take down these GPP prize pools! That might as well be us, right?!

Reminder: Since this tournament is played in Japan, the first tee will be at 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday evening (8:30 am local time on Thursday in Japan)! Make sure your lineups are set by then!

The Course Preview ⛳

Narashino CC is a Par 70 that stretches 7,041 yards. Compared to most Par 70 courses played on the PGA Tour, it possesses many unique qualities. In terms of total distance, this isn’t an overly long course. Of the ten Par 4s, only one checks in between 406-485 yards. So, on the majority of holes, golfers will be contending with either long (>485 yards) or short (<406 yards) hole layouts with only the 425 yard Par 4 No. 15 being the lone mid-length Par 4 exception. Another course detail of note, even though this is a Par 70, there are three Par 5s and five Par 3s (all under 200 yards) in play -- traditionally, Par 70s will usually contain only two Par 5s and four Par 3s. Narashino CC features six dogleg holes and most holes present relatively narrow tree-lined fairways, which are seeded with bouncy Zoysia grass. The undulating bentgrass greens will be on the smaller side but sharp iron play would lead to plenty of greens hit in regulation. What’s interesting to note is that there will be two greens on each hole, as is traditional Japanese golf courses (one green is used during summer/spring months, one for fall/winter months). Golfers will receive a free drop if they land on the wrong green. With the weather looking very cooperative this week, I believe we’ll see the winning score push 20-under par similar to 2019 when Tiger won (-19). Let’s get a look ahead at the weather, key stats to consider, and some players to target at each price range! And, once again, don’t forget about the earlier-than-usual start time for this event (7:30 pm ET Wednesday evening)!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Weather plays much less of a factor this week since, barring injury or disqualification, every golfer is guaranteed to play all four rounds. Tee times are also much more concentrated given the smaller field size. But, we’ll take a look at the forecast either way!

Temperatures & Rain: Pleasant golf weather with cooler temps in the 50s & 60s throughout the week. No major threat of rain at this time.

Winds: Pretty calm for most of the week with winds hardly pushing 10 mph. Saturday will bring some near-15 mph sustained winds (20 mph gusts) into play, but for DFS purposes that won’t affect our player pool.

Verdict: No tee time advantage.

ZOZO Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Proximity to the Holes | 10%

ZOZO Championship Model Standouts

This is a new section I’m adding showing the top 10 ranked golfers in both my key stats model (listed above) and overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored). This doesn’t mean these are the top 10 golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should be favorable DFS options this week.

Top 10 Golfers - Key Stats Only

1. Collin Morikawa

2. Will Zalatoris

3. Xander Schauffele

4. Jhonattan Vegas

5. Emiliano Grillo

6. Keegan Bradley

7. Charley Hoffman

8. Carlos Ortiz

9. Hideki Matsuyama

10. Maverick McNealy

Top 10 Golfers - Overall Model Rank

1. Xander Schauffele

2. Collin Morikawa

3. Will Zalatoris

4. Hideki Matsuyama

5. Jhonattan Vegas

6. Cameron Tringale

7. Joaquin Niemann

8. Maverick McNealy

9. CT Pan

10. Charley Hoffman

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 7/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #2

Morikawa is almost always going to land among the strokes gained leaders on approach. It’s when he gets his putter going where he begins to really contend in tournaments, often winning them. After a fairly underwhelming finish to his 2020-21 season, it was great to see Morikawa come out in his season debut last week at the CJ Cup (also a small field, no-cut event) and push for a win, ultimately coming away with a solo runner-up finish. He gained +3.88 strokes putting on the week at the CJ Cup, so if he parlays that into another solid four rounds with the flat stick, expect another top 10 result. While course history isn’t a major emphasis this week, Morikawa is one of 24 players in the field who competed at Narashino CC in 2019 where he came away with a respectable T-22 finish.

Rickie Fowler | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 25/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Overall Model Rank: #24

Chasing fantasy points isn’t often an optimal tactic in most daily fantasy sports, but golf is a bit different. After a lengthy stretch where he just wasn’t able to put a full tournament together, Fowler’s T-3 finish at the CJ Cup last week should go a long way in boosting his confidence heading into the ZOZO Championship. Perhaps it’s the lack of stress centered around making a cut line? Who knows. But Fowler led the entire field a week ago in tee to green play (+9.00 strokes gained), however, his putter simply never got hot, which is what prevented him from snagging a victory. He wasn’t awful with the flat stick necessarily, as he only lost -1.26 strokes putting. If Fowler keeps up that excellent ball striking and can manage to find a bit more consistency on the greens, he may just continue to make some noise out in Japan. Rickie is an easy guy to root for but it’s obviously been a couple of years since he’s been in top form. Him returning to a top 25ish golfing talent would be great for the sport!

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #12

Grillo is one of the better pure ball strikers in the world but his erratic short game will often cost him dearly. At the CJ Cup, Grillo gained strokes in every major tee to green category, and the +2.11 SG: Around the Greens, in particular, was great to see out of him. He still lost -1.51 strokes putting, but it wasn’t as if he completely mailed it in on the greens. The smaller green complexes at Narashino CC should benefit a guy like Grillo, who ranks 3rd in the field in proximity to the hole. He finished T-30 when he competed here in 2019, and I would expect that to be his floor this week. As the 14th (DK) and 15th (FD) most expensive golfer, you will need a better finish than that in order to take down a GPP with him, but I do believe he is worth some tournament shares during a week where there is no stress centered around making a cut.

Mid-Priced Targets

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #5

Vegas is leading the field in strokes gained off the tee. So long as he doesn’t get too wild with his driver, his game should set up very well on this shorter course which will provide a great deal of birdie/eagle opportunities for golfers who can bomb it with some decent accuracy (Vegas: 66.1% Driving Accuracy last week). We’re not usually accustomed to paying these higher mid-range salaries for Vegas, but he’s fully deserving of some consideration given his scoring prowess across four guaranteed rounds to play. Across his last ten starts, Vegas has averaged the 4th most fantasy points in the field.

CT Pan | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #17

Overall Model Rank: #9

Pan is off to an excellent start to the 2021-22 season following finishes of T-11 (Sanderson Farms Champ.) & T-6 (Fortinet Champ.) which succeeded a solo 3rd place finish at the Olympic men’s competition which, of course, was also hosted here in Japan. While it wasn’t a great showing, Pan does also have some course experience following his 59th place finish in 2019 at Narashino CC. I expect his game to translate much better to Narashino CC in his second competitive appearance here. Pan checks in with much better form this go ‘round compared to 2019 and ranks 34th or better in all five of my key stats, including 10th in the most important metric of them all (SG: Approach). Pan can be a bit streaky at times but I really like his outlook heading into this tournament.

Harry Higgs | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Overall Model Rank: #21

I’m not overly ecstatic about this general price range of golfers this week but Higgs would be an exception. His success often depends on having a hot week with the putter which, as many know, is not something a golfer can rely on having week-to-week. Last week, Higgs gained a whopping +5.98 strokes with his putter, which was the 2nd highest in the field. While that was a major contributing factor that led to his top 10 finish, Higgs also gained +4.02 strokes on approach, which was the 9th most strokes gained in that category in a field that featured a ton of talented ball strikers. If he keeps up the strong iron play, look out for another great week. Higgs has been grinding out plenty of strong performances lately as well, with four finishes of T-27 or better within his last six starts.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Takumi Kanaya | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 50/1 | DK: Cash & GPP, FD: GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

You will notice that there are, by my count, 17 other Japanese golfers in the field (aside from Matsuyama) who are competing in this tournament on sponsorship exemptions. Kanaya is priced above all of his fellow Japanese golfers (again, besides Matsuyama). These are names many of us are unfamiliar with, so you may be left wondering why Kanaya is noticeably priced up compared to his other countrymen. Well, it's simple... the guy can really play! He’s been tearing it up on the Japan Golf Tour where, over his last seven starts, he has finishes of T-7, T-13, T-5, T-16, 4th, and T-10! On the JGT, Kanaya is 1st in scoring average, 2nd in putting average, 1st in par or better percentage, 5th in greens hit in regulation, 4th in total driving, and 5th in birdie average. This field will be a step up in terms of the level of competition he normally runs up against, but it’s honestly not an incredibly drastic step up. He certainly seems deserving of some DFS exposure this week and will possibly come in relatively low-owned since most American golf fans will have never heard of his name before this week. Kanaya's DK price is particularly intriguing and he has, quite noticeably, the best odds to win (50/1) in comparison to the other golfers priced around him.

Tom Hoge | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Overall Model Rank: #20

Out of this salary range, Hoge is the only golfer who ranks inside the top 20 in both my key stats model and my overall tournament model. He’s a strong iron player (8th in SG: App) who can fire some darts (4th in Proximity) and he’s a solid putter on bentgrass greens (25th in SG: Putt - Bent). Hoge comes in with T-32 and T-14 results in his previous two PGA starts and, as the 39th (DK) and 43rd (FD) most expensive golfer in the field this week, he should be able to outperform these DFS salaries fairly easily

Scott Vincent | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Vincent, a golfer out of Zimbabwe, is another lesser-known player who has been tearing it up on the Japan Golf Tour. In his last eight JGT starts, Vincent has produced finishes of T-15, T-7, T-5, T-14, 1st, T-8, 1st, and T-17. He also made a bit of noise with a strong T-16 finish at the Olympics. On the JGT, Vincent checks in at T-3 in scoring average, 2nd in par or better average, 5th in driving distance, and he’s 3rd in eagles scored per round. I’d say there is something to be said about having a ton of recent experience playing on Japanese-style courses this week and Vincent has obviously been finding plenty of success over in Japan.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Xander Schauffele | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k | Cash & GPP

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.7k | GPP Preferred

Erik Van Rooyen | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.3k | GPP Preferred

Mid-Priced:

KH Lee | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.2k | Cash & GPP

Charley Hoffman | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k | GPP Preferred

Luke List | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k | GPP Only

Low-Priced/Punts:

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k | GPP Only

Chan Kim | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.4k | GPP Preferred

Sung Kang | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.5k | (DK) GPP Preferred

Wesley Bryan | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | GPP Only

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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