Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview ⛳️

The PGA Tour enters the second week of a three week Asia swing as they prepare to tee up in Chiba, Japan for the ZOZO Championship set to be hosted at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. This is a brand new tournament and the first ever PGA sanctioned event held in Japan. We'll have no shortage of talent to choose from this week as 14 of the top 25 (and 56 of the top 100) ranked golfers in the world are preparing to tee it up. Like last week’s CJ Cup, this field consists of just 78 golfers and there will be no cut. The field features 60 golfers from the PGA Tour circuit and is filled out with other players from the Japanese Golf Tour Organization and a few others who will be playing on sponsor exemptions. Also, hey, Tiger is playing! As I mentioned with most every smaller field no cut event, this may be a better week to allocate the majority of your spend towards GPPs, but the amount of talent will make cash builds a bit more viable than last week in my opinion.

Narashino CC is a Par 70 that stretches 7,041 yards. In terms of total distance, this isn’t an overly long course. Of the ten Par 4s, only one checks in between 406-485 yards. So golfers will be contending with either long or short hole layouts with only the 425 yard Par 4 No. 15 really being the lone exception. Another course detail of note, even though this is a Par 70, there are three Par 5s (typically there are only two). Narashino CC features six dogleg holes and relatively narrow tree-lined fairways, which is seeded with bouncy Zoysia grass. The undulating bentgrass greens shouldn’t be too difficult to hit, but what’s interesting to note is that there will be two greens on each hole. Golfers will receive a free drop if they land on the wrong green. After watching Tiger, Rory, Hideki, and Day compete on this course Sunday night in the Japan Skins Challenge, I get the feeling that Narashino CC will play moderately difficult, depending on wind conditions as it sits not too far from the ocean, and a winning score could likely be in the 15-under range, by my estimate. Let’s get a look ahead at the weather, key stats to consider, and some players to target at each price range!

Reminder: With this tournament taking place in Japan, this event will begin Wednesday at 7:00 ET.

Weather ⛅

The weather conditions aren’t setting up to be particularly ideal, especially on Friday. It looks like Thursday will have heavy cloud coverage throughout the day with 5-10 mph sustained winds (~15 mph gusts) in the morning and 15 mph sustained winds (~20 mph gusts) in the afternoon/early evening. Then we go to Friday, which may get pretty wild. Sustained winds in the morning will be around 15 mph with 25-30 mph gusts. The afternoon/early evening will bring in 20+ mph sustained winds with potential for 40 mph gusts! However, there is a high likelihood we see play suspended at some point Friday. Moderate to heavy rain is set to move in around noon local time and continue into the evening. To reiterate, this is a no cut event so everyone will get to play four rounds regardless (barring WDs and DQs) so weather isn’t as important as it is most weeks. But if play doesn’t end up getting suspended, golfers teeing up in the Friday PM wave will have terrible conditions to contend with. Try to run a final weather check tomorrow before lock before making any final lineup decisions. The forecast is linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 40%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

5. Sand Save % | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Adam Scott | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k

Vegas: 22/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6

The talent at the top of pricing is the strongest we’ve seen this season, so here’s to hoping people overlook Scott after his T42 at the Shriners Open. It won’t show up on the DraftKings or FanDuel event logs since it wasn’t a PGA/EURO Tour event, but Scott got his feet wet locally at the Japan Open Championship last week where he carded a T5 finish, which was his fourth top 10 finish in his last six worldwide starts. Scott ranks 15th in SG: BS, 7th in BoB%, 33rd in Par 4 Average, 34th in Bogey Avoidance, and 7th in SS%. If Scott gets things going off the tee (ranks 46th SG: OTT), his irons and putter could easily carry him to a top 10, possibly top 5, finish.

Tony Finau | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.1k

Vegas: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5

Finau has been displaying some very strong form as of late that he has typically been known for in recent years. He struggled toward the middle of last season but finished up strong when it really counted in the playoffs and now has four top 10s across his last five worldwide starts. In his last start at The Shriners, Finau’s ball striking was thoroughly on point, ranking 3rd in SG: OTT and 5th in SG: App, while carding three rounds of 68 and a very spicy round of 62. He also hit 71.4% of fairways that week. If he hits even 65% of fairways at Narshino CC, I think he can destroy this course assuming his ball striking continues to remain strong. Overall, he ranks 9th in SG: BS, 14th in BoB%, 19th in Par 4 Average, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, and 61st in SS%. I don’t love the very lack luster bunker play he has exhibited, but this is a guy who also ranks 2nd in the field in greens in regulation, so weather conditions permitting, I don’t believe he’ll land in the sand all too much. He’s another golfer I’m hoping goes a bit overlooked this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.3k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: 18th

Oosty is not a golfer I typically associate with consistency, but that’s exactly what he had towards the end of last season. He finished no worse than T20 in his last five starts. He hasn’t teed up since the TOUR Championship in late August, so I am taking a risk in assuming his strong form continues into this season. He doesn’t shine too brightly on the stat sheet, ranking 38th in SG: BS, 41st in BoB%, 23rd in Par 4 Average, 46th in Bogey Avoidance, and 8th in SS%. But I’m primarily trusting the form he was showing off a couple months ago and I believe he can do enough with his short game to make up for some potential lackluster ball striking.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.1k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

I’m anticipating good things for Niemann out in Japan this week. After opening up his season with a win at The Greenbrier, he faded a bit with a T54 and MC in his following events. However, last week he bounced back with a strong T12 at The CJ Cup in another smaller field, no cut event. He’s another guy whose game fits this course quite nicely. He ranks 16th in SG: App, 47th in BoB%, 5th in Par 4 Average, 13th in Bogey Avoidance, and 17th in SS%. Look for his ball striking to remain his strength and he should play better than most around the greens and out of the bunkers. All that he really has to worry about is rolling a solid putter (42nd in SG: Putting), which is never really predictable for any golfer.

Low-Priced Targets

Jason Kokrak | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

Vegas: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

Kokrak has disappointed DFS players who have taken a shot on him during his initial two 2019-20 PGA season starts (T63, MC). So with this pick, we’re more so looking to fall back on his long term form. At the end of last season, Kokrak landed a T6 at the Wyndham Championship and then went on to finish T12, T19, and T9 in the three playoff events. Overall, Kokrak ranks 8th in SG: BS, 40th in BoB%, 20th in Par 4 Average, 8th in Bogey Avoidance, and 29th in SS%. There’s no cut to worry about this week so perhaps he can play with a bit less pressure on his shoulders. If he struggles once again and finishes outside the top 40 or so, then I’d likely consider him a fade until he proves his 2018-19 season wasn’t a fluke.

Wyndham Clark | $6.6k, FD: $7.6k

Vegas: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #56

The primary appeal with Clark this week: birdie making ability. Once again, we know he’ll get the opportunity to play all four rounds and after opening the season poorly with three straight missed cuts, Clark surged for a T8 last week in another no cut event. He relies heavily on his putter (6th in SG: Putting) and rates out low in all other metrics besides birdie or better percentage (ranks 10th). Clark is a feast or famine pick but if you’re looking to get risky in GPPs, I do like the potential for his top 20 upside and he’ll most definitely carry well under 10% ownership.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.2k

Vegas: 7.5/1 | CMR: #2

At this point, how can you fade this guy? Answer: you can’t. Well… you can, but you’re risking a lot by doing so. If you ask me, it is between JT and Rory for the best player in the world right now. And while I don’t typically like picking guys coming off of a win, Thomas could very well ‘ship back-to-back events. He ranks 6th or better in 4/5 of my key stats this week (SG: BS, BoB%, Par 4 Average, and Bogey Avoidance).

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k

Vegas: 25/1 | CMR: #1

After a disappointing T31 last week, I’m not going to hesitate going back to the well with Hovland. He ranks 4th or better in all of the key stats I mentioned for Thomas, and is a strong bunker player as well (16th in SS%). The field strength is difficult but, in turn, we get more affordable prices on him this week.

Marc Leishman | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k

Vegas: 40/1 | CMR: #35

Leish has shown major upside already this season with a solo 3rd place finish at the Safeway Open. He didn’t impress much last week but he’s one of those golfers who can really excel on Par 70s and shoot multiple rounds of 65 (or lower). I think he gets it done around the greens this week as well, as he is one of the better scramblers in the field.

Corey Conners | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #21

On any course where I’m weighing ball striking heavily, Conners is almost always going to be included in my player pool, especially in a no cut event. Conners trails only McIlroy and Hovland, ranking 3rd in the field in SG: BS and the Canadian has landed inside the top 25 in six of his last seven starts. No issues whatsoever utilizing him at these prices.

Ryan Palmer | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #24

The form is trending back in the right direction for Palmer and, coming off of a T12 last week, I’d expect another solid week of ball striking (ranks 19th in SG: BS overall) and the birdie upside is excellent for his salaries as well (8th in BoB%).

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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