By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour has wrapped up its two week Vegas swing and now heads about 300 miles west to Thousand Oaks, California where Sherwood Country Club will play host to the ZOZO Championship. This was a brand new tournament in 2019 and was the first ever PGA sanctioned event held in Japan last year. Like the CJ Cup last week, travel restrictions have forced this event to be held stateside, so we’ll be dealing with another course without very much notable recent PGA history. Also like last week, the ZOZO Championship is another no cut event and features a small field consisting of 78 players. Star power is not an issue again either this week. We’ll see 21 of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world go head-to-head in what should be another fun tournament!

The Course Preview ⛳

Sherwood Country Club is a short Par 72 that stretches just 7,073 yards. This is a rare Par 72 setup, as there are five Par 5s and five Par 3s in play. While a couple of different PGA tournaments have been hosted at Sherwood CC in recent decades, the course underwent a redesign in 2016 and could play quite differently than it did back then. This is a Jack Nicklaus designed course, so despite the relatively short length, this probably won’t be a cakewalk. Dangers are going to lurk around every hole and will force golfers to be both mentally and physically sharp. Water will come into play on eight holes and strategically placed fairway bunkers will be protecting the ideal landing zones. The three-inch rough is also lurking for those who miss the fairway, but in all honestly I don’t believe the rough will be overly penalizing or difficult to hit out of (on most occasions). The Bentgrass greens will be a primary course defense. While, on average, they are large in terms of surface area, they will be heavily protected by bunkers and water on a few holes. The greens are also multi-tiered, carry considerable slope, and should run quite fast at about 12.5-13 on the stimpmeter. Overall, I think we’ll see players prioritize accuracy over distance and go with a ‘less than driver’ plan of attack off the tee. That would make this very much a second shot course and require accurate mid-irons and wedges once golfers make their approach shots. The five Par 5s will also have me focusing on guys who typically capitalize on those birdie holes. Finally, I think some creativity around the greens will be necessary if any golfer hopes to fight their way to the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Let’s get to it!

Weather ⛅

As usual, weather isn’t *as* important in no-cut events but it is still worth checking in on. With Sherwood CC sitting just a few miles inland from the Pacific Ocean, winds can often kick up a bit and turn into an impactful course defense. As of now, I’m not seeing anything to be worried about. The current forecast has sustained winds essentially staying in the single digits for all four rounds alongside some cooler temps and no immediate threat of rain. Run a final weather check Wednesday night (or early Thursday morning) just in case anything changes. The forecast is linked to the image below.

ZOZO Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks*: 32nd SG: App | 4th BoB% | 8th P5 AVG | 29th SG: ATG | 31st SG: P (Bent)

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

I’ll kinda go against the grain with McIlroy here because I really think people will gravitate more towards other guys priced around him like JT, Schauffele, or Simpson. That will make Rory an enticing leverage play in GPPs. McIlroy had a dreadful closing stretch to his final Sunday round at last week’s CJ Cup when he shot +6 across four of the final five holes on the back nine. If he had just parred those four holes, or even dropped a bogey or two, McIlroy would have snagged his third top 10 PGA finish in a row. His -3.90 strokes lost on approach last week was the 11th worst in the field, so even mustering out a T21 is fairly impressive. It does help when you lead the field in strokes gained off the tee (+6.13). Even though I’d prioritize accuracy over distance this week, McIlroy is just one of those golfers where you can often throw logic out the window. If he turns his iron game around and is average or just above average on approach shots, then he could certainly overpower this short course which provides five Par 5 opportunities per round. McIlroy has also finished top 10 in 11 of his last 16 no-cut events along with two wins.

Webb Simpson | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 14th SG: App | 2nd BoB% | 2nd P5 AVG | 1st SG: ATG | 9th SG: P (Bent)

If you want the exact opposite of a risky pick, it’s gotta be Webb. Dating back to the mid-June 2019-21 PGA season restart, Simpson has finished T13 or better in eight of 11 events. You simply have to look at his key stat rankings to see how well his game *should* fit this course. A shorter course that requires accuracy off the tee, pinpoint irons, strong play around the greens, and a reliable putter is where Simpson can shine. I expect high ownership on him, so feel free to go underweight on Simpson in GPPs, but he’s a great foundation piece to cash lineup builds.

Mid-Priced Targets

Harris English | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 33/1 | CMR: #18 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 18th SG: App | 17th BoB% | 23rd P5 AVG | 12th SG: ATG | 3rd SG: P (Bent)

In relation to DFS, English feels fairly close to the equivalent of a discounted Webb Simpson. Since the restart, English has landed inside the top 25 in 9-of-12 starts, along with three top 10 finishes. Even after a poor opening round at last week’s CJ Cup when he shot a 75, he followed through with rounds of 66, 69, and 68 to claw his way to a top 10 finish with a final score of 10-under. Other guys around him may have a bit more win equity, but it’s hard to imagine English turning in anything less than a solid performance this week.

Bubba Watson | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 25/1 | CMR: #22 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 11th SG: App | 53rd BoB% | 27th P5 AVG | 47th SG: ATG | 65th SG: P (Bent)

It’s been a while since Bubba has gotten near my cash lineup but after leading the field in strokes gained tee to green last week (+11.01), then it might be a week to consider him for tournaments. I believe the sizable price bump in comparison to last week will keep a lot of people off of him, so expect around 7-8% ownership. If he can just not implode with the putter, he’ll have a chance at being in the mix on Sunday (though, I do not have a ton of conviction in saying that). Still, I like his chances at a top 10 finish this week… but those chances are also probably pretty close to his odds of finishing in the bottom 10 as well. That’s Bubba for ya.

Low-Priced Targets

Sebastian Munoz | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #15 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 38th SG: App | 19th BoB% | 24th P5 AVG | 21st SG: ATG | 37th SG: P (Bent)

Munoz must love the lack of pressure in no-cut events because following his solo-9th place finish last week, he has now finished inside the top 10 in three straight no-cut tournaments (and had T14 & T17 finishes in his two no-cut events prior to that). Munoz gained strokes in every meaningful tee to green category last week and was solid with the putter as well. Basically, every facet of his game right now is certified solid. While he likely won’t cash in on those 80/1 odds, I really doubt he disappoints at these affordable salaries.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #50 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 50th SG: App | 54th BoB% | 46th P5 AVG | 13th SG: ATG | 16th SG: P (Bent)

If you’re looking for a ‘puntable’ golfer this week for GPPs, Hadwin could be a viable option. He hasn’t had a truly great result since the Rocket Mortgage Classic back in July when he snagged a T4, but I also don’t think anyone who played him at similar salaries last week were all to disappointed with his T28 finish. A shorter course that doesn’t require a big driver is much more in line with Hadwin’s skillset. His irons aren’t in great form at the moment but if he keeps up the all-around solid short game play up, he’ll have sneaky top 25 upside this week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Xander, Webb, and JT are the top three guys in my player model this week and I don’t mind spending up on any of ‘em. As mentioned last week, JT dominates in no-cut events with six wins and 14 top 10s in his last 22 no-cut starts. He had a ton of 50/50 putts last week that didn’t go his way but he still came away with a solid T12. Nothing wrong with going back to him again for the ZOZO Championship.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #21 | GPP Only

Well… no one is gonna feel great about rostering Wolff after that awful performance last week. That will make him a perfect contrarian target for GPPs. After carding back-to-back runner-up finishes, unless there is some unknown injury going on, I think you just have to chalk his outing at the CJ Cup to nothing more than a bad week. Every golfer has ‘em.

Russell Henley | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 50/1 | CMR: #16 | GPP Preferred

When Henley can manage to putt well, the sort of upside that we saw from him last week (T3 finish) is what he brings to the table. However, Henley was putting WAY over his head (+8.92 SG: P, ranked 2nd in field) and that shouldn’t be a routine thing with him. The increased salaries will also make me lean towards him more in GPPs.

Brian Harman | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #28 | Cash & GPP

Harman is the 33rd (DK) and 38th (FD) most expensive golfer this week. Considering he hasn’t finished worse than T38 in seven straight starts, while adding three top 15 finishes in that stretch, he should be a be a viable “solid floor + solid ceiling” value target.

Lanto Griffin | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #29 | GPP Preferred

Lanto’s T7 last week marked his fourth top 25 in his last five no-cut events, as well as his second top 10. It was also his fourth top 20 finish in general in his past seven starts. He often gains strokes in every major category (off the tee, approach, around the green, putting) and could probably even be considered for cash games this week. But he is certainly an excellent value target for GPPs.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.