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The 2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic Preview ⛳️

One week before the US Open, golf’s second major of the year, we travel to Memphis, Tennessee for the St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind. With many of the world’s elite golfers prepping for Shinnecock Hills, this event will feature one of the weakest fields of the season, with just four of the top 20 and 14 of the top 60 ranked golfers in the world participating. However, there are still plenty of talented players to choose from, but I definitely advise checking late Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning for last minute withdrawals.

Note - The following golfers have withdrawn from the St. Jude Classic as of Tuesday afternoon: Beau Hossler, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, Ollie Schniederjans, Russell Knox, Patrick Rodgers, Jamie Lovemark, K.J. Choi, Steve Marino, Bud Cauley, J.J. Spaun, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Glover

Moving on to the course, TPC Southwind is a Par 70 that covers 7,244 yards with lively Zoysia grass fairways and Bermuda greens. This is a somewhat long Par 70 course with many narrow, tree-lined, fairways, difficult to hit greens and plenty of water hazards and bunkers to deal with. We’ll see a lot of balls land in the water this week as this course, in recent years, leads water hazard shots by a wide margin over every other course on tour.

Many different types of golfers have had success here. Being super accurate off the tee isn’t necessarily of the utmost of importance as the rough is reasonably forgiving, but you definitely can’t be too erratic. With the ten water hazards, 94 bunkers, and only two Par 5's, I will once again be targeting guys who are excellent with their approach shots, manage to avoid bogeys, and excel in par 4 scoring.

Weather 🌦️

The weather this week sets up very nicely, especially for the first two rounds (which is what you want to focus on in 36-hole cut tournaments). Overall, it should not be of much concern. Winds should stay around or below 5 mph throughout both Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the 70's - 80's for the morning waves and climb to the low to mid 90's for the afternoon waves. Essentially, all golfers will deal with equivalent temperatures and weather through the first two rounds. As usual, however, be sure to check closer to Thursday morning as this article is being written early Tuesday.

Top 5 Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) + Driving Accuracy

3 .Par 4 Average

4. Bogey Avoidance

5. Birdie or Better % (BoB%)

Lineup Foundation Targets

Here I will highlight three golfers who, I believe, can be reliable “building blocks," especially for cash games, but all are in play for GPPs as well. Last week, in this section, I featured Bryson DeChambeau, who went on to become the 2018 Memorial Champion, Justin Thomas, who finished with a strong T8 performance, and Emiliano Grillo, who reeled in a respectable T23 finish.

Brooks Koepka ($11,100 DK, $12,400 FD)

Koepka comes in as my favorite overall play this week. Though his price is steep, he is definitely a great option if you’re looking to spend up on someone. While every high profile player carries some withdrawal risk with a Major right around the corner, Koepka is fresh after putting a wrist injury that happened earlier in the season behind him. He has only competed in six events this year, making all six cuts. His form is tremendous with a T11 at The Players and an outright 2nd place finish at the Fort Worth Invitational two weeks ago. I believe he will look to keep his game in top form heading into a US Open title defense next week. With far fewer events played than much of the field, some of his stats have yet to catch up to his actual skill level, but his BoB% ranks 3rd in the field, he’s 14th in SG: OTT, 6th in driving distance, 4th in putting average, and his iron play is elite. Vegas has him as a 9:1 favorite, trailing only Dustin Johnson in odds to win. 

Byeong-Hun An ($9,200 DK, $10,400 FD)

One of my bargain guys from last week becomes one of my core targets this week. An has never played at TPC Southwind but I believe his game sets up very nicely here. He narrowly lost ‘shipping The Memorial last week after losing in a three way play-off hole and finishing in a tie for 2nd with Kyle Stanley, so his form comes in on the higher end of the spectrum while his price on both sites remains reasonable. An ranks 7th in SG: App, 5th in SG: OTT, 17th in Par 4 average, 12th in Bogey avoidance, and 16th in BoB%. Couple that with his great length (12th in driving distance) and well above average driving accuracy (45th) and you should have a great all around pick if you take An in lineups.

Tony Finau ($9,300 DK, $11,700 FD)

It’s hard to find a more consistent golfer than Finau in the field this week not named Johnson, Mickelson, or Stenson. Tony the Pony fits the model of consistency and is entering the week in great form. In 16 stroke play events he has just two missed cuts, has finished runner-up twice, reeled in four top 10’s and 10 top 25’s. Finau is another golfer making his debut at TPC Southwind and, normally, I wouldn’t target multiple guys with zero course history but with his length off the tee (2nd in driving distance averaging 315.5 yards) he has the ability to decimate the field as long as he maintains decent accuracy. He ranks 8th in all three categories of SG: App, BoB%, and Bogey Avoidance. Finau, with 25:1 odds, might be my favorite Vegas bet this week.

Top Tournament Targets

Braden Thornberry ($7,700 DK, $8,600 FD)

Thornberry is an amateur out of Ole Miss who managed to finish T4 in his appearance at the St. Jude Classic last year. This pick is certainly a GPP target only that carries sizable risk, but you should get him at <3% ownership on both sites. Vegas has him at a 90:1 favorite -- great odds for a somewhat unknown amateur. To add on to his appeal, he just qualified for the U.S. Open on Monday in the sectionals (that also took place in Memphis), shooting -9 under through 36 holes.

Bargain Bin 💲🗑️

Ben Crane ($7,400 DK, $9,100 FD)

Coming into this week, Crane has six straight made cuts including a season best T8 at his last event at The Fort Worth Invitational. It’s pretty rare you’ll find what some would call a “course horse” this cheap. Crane has made 11/12 cuts at TPC Southwind including a win in 2014 and a T10 last year. He is a player who can be very accurate off the tee (11th in driving accuracy) while scoring well on Par 4's (7th in the field) and avoiding a lot of trouble as he is 11th in bogey avoidance and 5th in scrambling. I believe Crane has a place in GPP and cash game lineups.

Matt Jones ($6,900 DK, $8,300 FD)

Aussie Matt Jones is more of a cheap course history target as he has an 18th place finish here last year, 26th in 2016 and a 3rd place finish in 2015. He comes in with nice form with a T13 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and Vegas is giving him 100:1 odds. He ranks 27th in the field in DraftKings scoring over the last five events, 14th in BoB%, 24th in SG: OTT and 36th in Par 4 average. If he can find success on his approach shots, which are not currently up to snuff (89th in the field in SG: App) he could be in solid position on Sunday. I don’t think I’d look his way for cash games but he makes a prime GPP “stars and scrubs” target.

Chez Reavie ($7,600 DK, $9,200 FD)

In three appearances in the past five years Reavie has garnered solid results. A T27 in 2013, a T12 in 2015 and a T4 last season. You can’t be too thrilled with his current form, however, as he has missed three of his past five cuts. But if he can shake off whatever has been holding him back recently, his season long stats really lend themselves to set up nicely for this course. Chez is 9th in SG: App, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Driving Accuracy, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, and 20th in BoB% while carrying 66:1 Vegas odds. Reavie was a cash game staple for me earlier in the year and I might be willing to trust him there once again but I will definitely have shares of him in GPPs.

Others to Consider

I can’t write up every guy I like each week but there are definitely several more golfers I really want to include in my player pool. Last week, this list included Kyle Stanley (T2), Tony Finau (T13), Tiger Woods (a disappointing T23), Chesson Hadley (T40), and Marc Leishman (a rough Sunday that dropped him to T62). So, here are five more guys I like for this week in no particular order.

- Phil Mickelson ($10,600 DK, $12,100 FD)

- Luke List ($8,300 DK, $10,300 FD)

- Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($8,400 DK, $9,600 FD)

- Peter Uihlein ($8,500 DK, $9,900 FD)

- Abraham Ancer ($6,900 DK, $8,800 FD)

Top Golfer to Avoid

Here I’ll give one guy who I won’t be looking to take in many, if any, of my lineups. I had Phil here last week as I just didn’t believe he was going to meet salary expectations but he managed a strong T13 finish despite a shaky opening round.

Daniel Berger ($10,000 DK, $11,800 FD)

It seems crazy to not like the guy who has won this event the past two years but I just don’t expect to have many shares of Berger this week. He’s the 5th most expensive option on both sites and just hasn’t had a very convincing month of May finishing T57, T55 and T32 in his last three events with zero top 10’s on the season in 13 appearances. I’m sure he’ll come through with a respectable finish inside the Top 25 come Sunday, but if I’m paying for someone at his price, I’m expecting a top 5-10 finish. I’ll divert from the herd playing Berger this week (terrible cow pun not intended).

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Good luck this week, guys! And feel free to hit me up in the chat @N1TRO if you want a second opinion on any specific golfer approaching this week’s tournament or to just ask about PGA DFS in general! Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS . Let's also try to stir up some more overall discussion! Always interested in hearing other people's hot takes.

Thanks for reading!

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